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Winning The Peace��Rediscovering the American way of Peace

Matt Caffrey

Professor of Wargaming

Air Command and Staff College

Air University

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Bio

  • Lt Col USAFR AF/XOOC (CHECKMATE)
  • Professor of Wargaming and Campaign�Planning, Air Command and Staff College
  • Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
  • Originator of the Connections Conference
  • Designer of Several Air Force Wargames
  • Originator of the Commercial Wargames db

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My Thesis

The most important aspect of a war is the peace it produces.

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  • A win / win peace is the type of peace that is:
    • Most in our interest
    • Most enduring
    • But usually most intrusive

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Types of Peace

  • Traditional
    • Peace of the dead
    • Peace of the prison
    • Peace of cultural conquest
  • Drew & Snow
    • The Peace of Win / Win

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The Caffrey Cycle

History

Theory

Doctrine

Strategy

War

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What Made Alexander Great

Win / Win Peace

  • Leaders
    • co-opted where possible
    • killed when not
  • Religion/culture respected
  • Cities founded, trade & learning encouraged

People better off after conquest

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How about Peace of the Dead

  • Carthage best example, Rome lost:
    • A past and potential future enemy
    • A current trading partner
    • A potential ally (Franklin quote)
  • Feasibility today?
    • I think it's called “ethnic cleansing”
    • CNN factor

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How About Peace of the Prison?

  • Mongol Hordes best example
    • Works while guard is on duty
    • Prisoner will revolt when guard distracted
  • Feasibility today?
    • Least intrusive
    • Most expensive
    • Least permanent

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How About �Peace of Cultural Conquest

  • Best Example Roman Empire
    • Rome built cities, granted citizenship
    • But Rome took more than they gave
    • Too few fought the barbarians
  • Feasibility today?
    • Nationalism could cause backlash
    • Diversity is good

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How About �The Peace of Win / Win

  • America is the best example - sometimes
    • American Revolution - “A peace England will want to keep”
    • War of 1812 - “An agreement in the best interest of both countries”
    • Mexican American War - “this is actually a treaty of restoration, returning more territory then we are seeding.”

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How About �The Peace of Win / Win

  • America is the best example - sometimes
    • Civil War
      • Lincoln - “with malice toward none, with charity to all”
      • Johnson - peace of the prison - that lasted until the guards were withdrawn
    • Spanish American
      • For Spain - Prison + win/win
      • For the former colonies - Prison > win/win

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How About �The Peace of Win / Win

  • America is the best example - sometimes
    • World War I - see we told you so
    • World War II - more later
    • Korea & Vietnam - na, prerequisite for choosing the peace - winning
    • Gulf War - Peace of the Prison - Saudi Student
    • The Balkans - more later

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Passing the Test of Fire

Matt Caffrey

ACSC/DEM

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Why Listen

  • You are about to be “they”
  • As our forces must be developed so must it’s leaders
  • Avoid doing the wrong things well

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What is my source?

  • ACSC “school decision?”
  • Air Force Doctrine?
  • Joint Doctrine?
  • Congress?

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We The People...

We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal that they are endowed by their creator with life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness...

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We The People...

  • Life
  • Liberty
  • The Pursuit of Happiness

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We The People...

  • Security
  • Democracy
  • Prosperity

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Does anyone really believe we will lose our next war? Yet who believes our next enemy will become a:

  • Military Ally
  • Important trading partner
  • Principal vacation destination

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Why?

  • Win / Win Peace Endure
  • America is stronger/more free/richer if our friends are strong, free, and rich

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We The People...

  • Life
  • Liberty
  • The Pursuit of Happiness

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We The People...

  • Security
  • Democracy
  • Prosperity

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How Do We Get There

  • Jefferson was right
    • Life, liberty, pursuit of happiness
  • Washington was right
    • Smart use of “Militia”
  • Lincoln was right
    • “as I would not be a slave I will not be a master”
  • TR was right
    • All monopolies are bad

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What Will Our Force Look Like

  • Fast
  • Surgical
    • Low lethality
    • Low destruction
  • Intrusive
  • Sustainable

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Use Forces With Least Exposure First

  • Space/Info/Logistics
  • Bomber/Navy
  • Theater Air
  • USMC Ground Forces
  • Army Ground Forces

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Yet Army ground forces will always/almost always will ultimately be needed

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Developing Your Personal Readiness

  • Study Joint/Fight as appropriate
  • Learn broadly - “Connections”
  • Mentor your subordinates/peers/superiors
  • Wargame - broadly

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Never, Never, Never, Stop Learning

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