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Spotless days and geomagnetic index as the predictors of solar cycle 25

Dipali S. Burud

Kadi Sarva Vishwavidyalaya, Gandhinagar, India

Contributions from �Dr. Rajmal Jain

Physical Research Laboratory, Navrangpura, 380009�Dr. Arun K. Awasthi

CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Beijing 100101, China

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Outline

  • Motivation
  • Introduction
    • Spotless days (SLD)
  • Data sets
  • Results
  • Summary

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Motivation

  • Solar cycle characteristics
  • Period 7 to 13 years
  • Amplitude
  • High correlation with the solar activity
  • Anticorrelation of SLD with solar cycle
  • Waldmeier effect

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Data sets

  • sunspot number (R) -SILSO web site

(www.sidc. be/silso/datafiles)

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Result �SLD and it’s Occurrence

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Result

Prediction For Amplitude of solar cycle 25

(Rmax)25=99.13± 14.97

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Result

Prediction For rise phase of solar cycle 25

By averaging both methods = 4.17 years

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Summary and conclusion

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  • SLD shows negative exponential distribution with respect to the consecutive days.
  • A new prediction technique by using SLD.
  • Solar cycle 25 is weak with amplitude (99.13 ± 14.97) and (104.23± 17.35).
  • The maximum likely to be in February and March 2024.
  • The sun is in or proceeding towards next grand minimum.

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Thanking you for your attention