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Social Media Reinforcing Confirmation Bias

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CHAN, Lawrence Ki-on�CHAN, Wai Chung�CHENG, Ka Yan�CHONG, Ka Chin�CHUNG, Ho Ming�LEW, San Yik�

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Outline

for our presentation

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Identification of Social Issue

Recommendation

Causes

Existing Solutions

Primary data

Secondary data

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A Quick Survey

How many of us here are using social media platforms for news and information?�

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Social media has evolved�

From a communication tool to a source of news and information

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Pew Research Center (US Think Tank)

News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2018

Survey conducted from 30 July - 12 Aug 2018

4581 Respondents�

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Social media presents contents that you like

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What kind of concerns does this create?

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Social Impact of Social Media

The more serious issues

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Evidence on Global Warming

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Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record)

Temperature data showing rapid warming in the past few decades (NASA/NOAA)

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Consensus on consensus

of 97% of Climate Scientists

9

University of Queensland, Australia

Harvard University, USA

Louisiana State University, USA

Princeton University, USA

Amsterdam University College, The Netherlands

University of Edinburgh, UK

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Deniers

Do not conduct holistic research

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Survey on Global Warming Opinion

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Gallup's annual survey about the environment (1041 US respondents, 1-8 March 2018)

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The harm it causes

the case of fossil fuels lobbying

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Fossil fuels lobbying - corporations attempting to influence governmental policy

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Only 31% US Republicans

say that global warming is caused by human activities

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Popovich, Nadja, and Livia Albeck-ripka.

“How Republicans Think About Climate Change - in Maps.”

The New York Times, 14 Dec. 2017

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A large portion of the lobby money

goes to Republicans politicians

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Data released by the Federal Election Commission. Graphs by The Center for Responsive Politics.

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Damages this causes

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Causes

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1

Social Media

Algorithm

2

Confirmation

Bias

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Social Media Algorithm

Presenting appealing information to users

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Collaborative Filtering

Association Rule Mining

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Collaborative Filtering

What is it?

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best recommendations come from people who have similar tastes

Search for Common

This is how Facebook recommendation system works

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Collaborative Filtering

Situation

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Facebook Fanpages

Is there Global Cooling?

Climate Change is a hoax

Wong Tze Wah (子華本部)

HKUST FYS Secret

Your Friends

👦

👧

👨

👩

You

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End Result...

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👦👧

👨👩

Climate Change is WRONG!

Climate Change is TRUE!

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Association Rule Mining

What is it?

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The system recommend the content that are closely related to what you have consumed before.

Example: YouTube recommendation

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Association Rule Mining

Experiment

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The video history

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Result

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9/18

Recommended videos related to climate change denial

Less likely to receive recommendation relating to other side.

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The reason behind these algorithms?

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Confirmation Bias

Reason why social media use the algorithm above

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People don’t want to find out that they are wrong.

Challenge avoidance

People want to find out that they are right.

Reinforcement seeking

Users want social media to show relevant content that agrees with existing beliefs

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World Map Showing that Different Countries Believes and Awareness in Climate Change

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Canada search engine

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Canadian believes in climate change

Search result are more supportive towards global warming.

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Biased Search (Canadian)

Rising Sea Level

Retreat of Glaciers

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World Map Showing that Different Countries Believes and Awareness in Climate Change

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U.S. browser

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Biased Search (American)

Antarctic sea ice coverage is increasing

Natural Climate Cycle

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Causes

A Vicious Cycle

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Show Users What They Like to See

Search For What They Believe

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Existing Solutions

To Reduce Users’ Confirmation Bias�

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Human Fact Checking

To reduce the confirmation bias

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Facebook x Factcheck.org

To reduce the confirmation bias

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≥ 4

editors

≥ 2

fact-checking organizations

≤1/day

articles debunked

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Facebook x Factcheck.org

To reduce the confirmation bias

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≥ 4

editors

≥ 2

fact-checking organizations

≤1/day

articles debunked

Inefficient

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Facebook x Factcheck.org

To reduce the confirmation bias

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≥ 4

editors

≥ 2

fact-checking organizations

≤1/day

articles debunked

Inefficient

Damage has been done

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Human Fact Checking

Introduces external bias

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Human Fact Checking

Introduces external bias

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Fake

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Human Fact Checking

Introduces external bias

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Fake

Consists of human bias

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Random mode

To reduce the confirmation bias

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Random mode

To reduce the confirmation bias

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Not used effectively

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Random mode

Introduces external bias

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Ideal

Support

Deny

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Random mode

Introduces external bias

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Random mode

Introduces external bias

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Random mode

Introduces external bias

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Random mode

Introduces external bias

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Cannot solve the confirmation bias

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Algorithm

To reduce the confirmation bias

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Domain Location

Age of Website

Website Popularity

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Algorithm

To reduce the confirmation bias

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Domain Location

Age of Website

Website Popularity

Does not minimize the bias effectively

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Algorithm

To reduce the confirmation bias

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Recommendation

Our Proposed Solution

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Recommendation

Our Proposed Solution

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Present to Users All Sides of Information Regarding Each Issue

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Sentiment Analysis

Opinion Mining

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Sentiment analysis is a type of data mining that measures the inclination of people’s opinions through natural language processing (NLP), computational linguistics and text analysis, which are used to extract and analyze subjective information from the Web. The analyzed data quantifies sentiments or reactions toward certain products, people or ideas and reveal the contextual polarity of the information.

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Recommendation

Our Proposed Solution

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What if People just Ignore these Info?

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Mere-Exposure Effect

Psychological Tendency

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Individuals tend to prefer an option that they have been exposed to before over an option they have never encountered,

even if the exposure to the first option was brief

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Mere-Exposure Effect

Psychological Tendency

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Our Attitudes can be Changed Simply Through Exposure

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2

Becomes more Open-Minded towards the Topic

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Key Ideas:

Repeated Prior Exposure to an opinion can Lead to more Liking

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Mere-Exposure Effect

Depends on Cognitive Fluency

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Cognitive Fluency:

The Ease of Processing Information

People tend to agree with or trust:

Repeated Exposures Simplify the Effort to Process Ideas

Portfolio Description

Visually Appealing

Easy to Comprehend

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Even if Users do NOT Click/Read More,

Their Attitudes towards Opposing Views

Can Still Be Changed!

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Implementation

To convince stakeholders to adopt our recommendations

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Loss Aversion

Regret aversion

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Convincing Social Media

Consequence of fake news

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Loss Aversion

Failure to:

Regulate fake news,

Police their sites

Decline in monthly active user base

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Convincing Social Media

Consequence of fake news

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Loss Aversion

Failure to:

Regulate fake news,

Police their sites

Decline in monthly active user base

-120B

in market value

-20%

in stock share value

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Adapting User Behaviour

Make use of decision avoidance

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Regret aversion

Stick with status-quo

Set as default option

Allow users to consciously make decision

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Conclusion

Win-win outcome for all parties

Intelligent User Base

Lesser fake news being echoed

Well-informed society

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MGMT1130

THANK

YOU

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Another Survey

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Climate Change in the American Mind, by Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (1266 interviewed, 18 May - 6 June 2017)

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If you deny global warming

You would not...

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Reduce energy consumption
Eat less meat

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General Purpose

Google Slides Templates

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For business and school. 100% editable in Google Slides

FGST

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Instructions

How to work with this template?

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OUR COMPANY

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Welcome Message

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ANALYSIS

Topic 1

Topic 2

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Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia Curae; Morbi pharetra nibh eu est posuere gravida ut vel felis. Praesent mollis dui quis eros varius, auctor maximus tortor congue. Praesent commodo lectus a felis tincidunt facilisis. Duis pretium mi eget arcu viverra, vitae accumsan ipsum suscipit. Mauris posuere risus sollicitudin, elementum quam at, rutrum quam. Phasellus egestas ligula in elementum ultrices. Maecenas quis dictum magna. Fusce ante ex, sagittis non mi in, egestas porta mauris. Mauris sollicitudin dictum sapien, non varius odio placerat eu. Donec efficitur viverra lacus, at fringilla neque dictum a. Nulla placerat rutrum est eu malesuada. Sed fringilla vitae lacus sed ultricies.

Cum sociis natoque penatibus et magnis dis parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus. Cras elementum gravida purus, in hendrerit nulla luctus at.

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One Column Text & Quote

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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean nec cursus arcu, fringilla porttitor est. Vestibulum quis erat non velit mollis pretium ut non erat. Praesent metus quam, porta non nunc a, semper sagittis risus. Etiam sagittis maximus interdum. Donec aliquet et ligula vitae eleifend. Donec nibh enim, volutpat sit amet interdum non, eleifend in neque. Sed vel tincidunt metus, a volutpat orci.

Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia Curae; Morbi pharetra nibh eu est posuere gravida ut vel felis. Praesent mollis dui quis eros varius, auctor maximus tortor congue. Praesent commodo lectus a felis tincidunt facilisis. Duis pretium mi eget arcu viverra, vitae accumsan ipsum suscipit.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean nec cursus arcu, fringilla porttitor est.

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This is a great Google Slides Template

For General Purposes

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Two Column Text

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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean nec cursus arcu, fringilla porttitor est. Vestibulum quis erat non velit mollis pretium ut non erat. Praesent metus quam, porta non nunc a, semper sagittis risus. Etiam sagittis maximus interdum. Donec aliquet et ligula vitae eleifend. Donec nibh enim, volutpat sit amet interdum non, eleifend in neque. Sed vel tincidunt metus, a volutpat orci.

Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia Curae; Morbi pharetra nibh eu est posuere gravida ut vel felis. Praesent mollis dui quis eros varius, auctor maximus tortor congue. Praesent commodo lectus a felis tincidunt facilisis. Duis pretium mi eget arcu viverra, vitae accumsan ipsum suscipit.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Aenean nec cursus arcu, fringilla porttitor est. Vestibulum quis erat non velit mollis pretium ut non erat. Praesent metus quam, porta non nunc a, semper sagittis risus. Etiam sagittis maximus interdum. Donec aliquet et ligula vitae eleifend. Donec nibh enim, volutpat sit amet interdum non, eleifend in neque. Sed vel tincidunt metus, a volutpat orci.

Vestibulum ante ipsum primis in faucibus orci luctus et ultrices posuere cubilia Curae; Morbi pharetra nibh eu est posuere gravida ut vel felis. Praesent mollis dui quis eros varius, auctor maximus tortor congue. Praesent commodo lectus a felis tincidunt facilisis. Duis pretium mi eget arcu viverra, vitae accumsan ipsum suscipit.

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@googleslides

THANK

YOU

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Credits

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Microsoft® and PowerPoint® are trademarks or registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation.

Google Drive® is a registered trademark of Google Inc.

Photos in this template were downloaded from pixabay.com. Attribution is located in each slide notes and the Credits slide.

The Template provides a theme with four basic colors:

The backgrounds were created by Free Google Slides Templates.

Vectorial Shapes in this Template were created by Free Google Slides Templates and downloaded from pexels.com and unsplash.com.

Icons in this Template are part of Google® Material Icons and 1001freedownloads.com.

Shapes & Icons

Backgrounds

Images

Fonts

Color Palette

Trademarks

The fonts used in this template are taken from Google fonts. ( Dosis,Open Sans )

You can download the fonts from the following url: https://www.google.com/fonts/

#93c47dff

#0097a7ff

#78909cff

#eeeeeeff

#f7b600ff

#00ce00e3

#de445eff

#000000ff

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Icons & Shapes

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Vector Icons

Resize the Icons

Edit the colors

Free Google Slides Templates uses Vectorial Icons from the most popular Free Sources.

All Icons are resizable. Change the icons size without losing resolution.

All Icons are editable. Change the color fill and lines without affecting the shape.

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FGST

Free Google Slides Templates

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Halo Effect

Being exposed to a certain trait of an individual causes people to immediately form an initial impression of that person,

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