• Will an event occur?
• How intense will it be?
• How long will it last?

Recommendations for crew

SRAG

Flight Control Team

SWPC

M2M

• Forecasts
• Warnings/Alerts

Background image taken by ISS Expedition 65 crew on Aug 2, 2021

SEP Scoreboard support

SRAG Console Operations

Summary and Discussion Points

• The SEP Scoreboards:
• Help SRAG console operators answer the questions:
• Will an event occur?
• How intense will the event be?
• How long will the event last?
• Provide a clean and organized display of SEP models and supporting information
• Available for use
• Probability Scoreboard: https://sep.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/probability/
• Intensity Scoreboard: https://sep.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/intensity/

​

• Validation provides confidence to SRAG console operators when giving recommendation for crew actions and reduces the number of false alarms that would waste crew time
• Need quantitative validation. Typical metric SRAG would like to see:
• Categorical forecasts: POD, FAR, TSS, HSS
• Probabilistic forecasts: BSS, reliability diagram
• Deterministic forecasts: Mean Log Error, Mean Absolute Log Error

​

• Modelers, if you want your SEP model incorporated into the SEP Scoreboards, contact me (philip.r.quinn@nasa.gov) or Leila Mays (m.leila.mays@nasa.gov)

​