Russia / Ukraine Crisis

Pray for the World

2 March 2022

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Overview

1. Background
2. Russian military actions
3. Ukrainian resistance – Military and civilians
4. International Response – UN, NATO, Sanctions etc.
5. Impact on Ukraine
6. Global Impact – Refugees, Rise in prices
7. Prayer items

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1. Background� – Country Profile

• Population: 44.9 million
• Area: 603,700 sq km (*Europe’s 2^nd largest!)
• Major languages: Ukrainian (official), Russian
• Major religion: Christianity

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• Russia: Sees Ukraine as historically part of Russia.
• Ukrainians: close ties with Russians.

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1. Background �- Crisis escalation

• 1991: Soviet Union’s dissolution
• 🡪 Ukraine declares independence.
• 2014: Russia invaded Crimea (克里米亞)
• Russia: Seeks to overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government.

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1. Background �– Crisis escalation �(Nov – Dec 21)

• Russia sent troops 🡪 border with Ukraine.
• Russia denied invasion.
• Russia demanded: a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO.

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1. Background – Crisis escalation �(Jan – Feb 22)

• US: Refused to rule out Ukraine joining NATO.
• > 200,000 Russian troops were near Ukraine's borders
• Putin: recognised the independence of the two Russian-backed separatists areas

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2. Russian Military Actions�

• Putin: announced a “special military operation"
• Ukraine: "full-scale invasion”.
• North, South and East
• Kyiv (基輔) under attack

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2. Russian Military Actions�

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2. Russian Military Actions�

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2. Russian Military Actions �– Nuclear Weapons (核武) �

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• Nuclear weapons 🡪 "special mode of combat duty” (特殊作戰模式)

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2 March (Reuters)

• Russian Foreign Minister: If a third World War were to take place, it would involve nuclear weapons and be destructive,.

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Ceasefire negotiation

• After Russian forces bombarded residential areas in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv.
• At Belarus (白俄羅斯)– Russia’s strong ally.
• No breakthrough up to this point.

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3. Ukrainian Resistance �- Military

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• Volunteers wait in line to join the Ukrainian Armed Forces

3. Ukrainian Resistance – Civilians

• Taking shelter inside train carriages at subway stations.
• A civilian trains to throw Molotov cocktails to defend the city.�

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3. Ukrainian Resistance – Civilians

Hiding in basement bomb shelters.

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3. Ukrainian Resistance – Civilians

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• Ukraine urged anyone able to hold a weapon to join the effort to repel Russia.
• Weapons stored by families for protection.
• Blood donations for the wounded.

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4. International Response �– UNSC (聯合國安全理事會)

• 25 Feb 2022
• U.S.-drafted condemnation: which demands the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of the Russian troops battering Ukraine, was approved by 11 members.
• Russia: vetoed
• China, India and UAE: abstained.

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“Russia, you can veto this resolution, but you cannot veto our voices,” she said, looking directly at the Russian representative.

4. International Response �– UN General Assembly�(聯合國大會)

• Similar resolution – Today!
• Non-binding
• Expression of the views of the UN members only

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4. International Response – UNSC

• UN Charter (聯合國憲章):
• SC 🡪 power and responsibility to take collective action to maintain international peace and security.
• SC 🡪 peacekeeping operations (維和)
• If: Direct UN involvement not appropriate or feasible 🡪 authorizes regional organizations
• E.g. NATO (北約).
• BUT: Russia and China 🡪 veto.

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4. International Response – NATO (北約)

• Ukraine is not a member of NATO 🡪 not obliged to come to its defence.
• Russia’s moves “a brutal act of war”
• NATO military alliance would defend “every inch” of its territory should Russia attack a member country
• 🡺 unlikely.
• NATO will not send any troops to Ukraine
• Will instead increase presence of NATO troops in the eastern Europe. �

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4. International Response – Sanctions

• Putin and Foreign Minister 🡪 Assets frozen.
• All major Russian banks 🡪 Assets frozen

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4. International Response �– ‘Economic War’

• Isolate Russia from global economic system
• EU, US, UK 🡪 cut off Russian banks from Swift.
• Cash shortage
• Rouble collapses against USD.

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4. International Response �– Entry into EU(歐盟)?

• Ukraine: Applied for immediate EU membership
• ‘new special procedure’?
• Need to be agreed by all EU member states.
• ‘Different opinions and sensitivities within the EU on enlargement.”

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5. Impact on Ukraine: Casualties

Ukrainians Death tolls:

• > 350 civilians
• including 14 children.

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(as of 2 March 2022)

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5. Global Impact – Refugee Crisis

• Migration to neighboring countries
• UN: 4 million people may try to leave the country
• UN: 600,000 civilians have fled (as of Mon)

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5. Global Impact – Refugee Crisis

• Hungary (匈牙利): 89,561
• Moldova (摩爾多瓦 ): 56,064
• Slovakia (斯洛伐克): 46,868
• Romania(羅馬尼亞): 38,461
• Belarus (白俄羅斯): 329

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5. Global Impact - Rise in oil prices

• Russia: second-biggest exporter of crude oil, world's largest natural gas exporter
• UK: 6% of its crude oil and 5% of its gas from Russia
• EU: Nearly half of its gas from Russia.

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5. Global Impact - Rise in food and car prices

Food:

• everyday food price might rise
• rely on wheat and corn from Russia and Ukraine.

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Car:

• Russia is one of the world's largest suppliers of metals used in car manufacturing�

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Prayer Items

• Peace and stability / Ceasefire
• Health, safety and shelter
• Recovery for the wounded
• Racial harmony
• Justice
• Repent