Opportunity Realized and Lost�Historical Insights Through Nodal Analysis

Matt Caffrey

Professor of Wargaming

Air Command and Staff College

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The Ancient Art of EBO*�(*Effects Based Operations)

Matt Caffrey

Professor of Wargaming

Air Command and Staff College

​

The Flow of My Talks

Lessons From The History Wargaming

What needs to be fixed to better depict all war

​

The Ancient Art of Effects Based Operations

Aerospace power provides new tools for ancient strategy

​

Wargaming Aerospace Power

​

A Global History of

The Impact of Engineers & Air Bases On Air Campaigns

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My Bio

• IMA to AF/XOOC (CHECKMATE)
• Professor of Wargaming and Campaign Planning, Air Command and Staff College
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Originator of the Connections conference
• Designer of several wargames
• Originator of the Commercial Wargames db

What Is�Effects Based Operations?

Military Operations designed to achieve specific effects. Attrition may or may not be a byproduct but is not an objective.

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How Old is EBO?

• World War II?
• World War I?

How Old is EBO?

• Alexander the Great
• Victory over the Persian fleet
• Rome
• 3rd Punic War
• Fall of Constantinople
• Cut income > cripple defense

EBO, An American Tradition

• Revolutionary War
• Increase British Costs, land blockade, privateer
• War of the Rebellion
• Sea Blockade, Liberate Rebel “Capitol”
• Indian Wars
• The “Disappearance” of the buffalo
• Philippine Insurrection
• What are we fighting for?

EBO in WWI

• Submarine - two edged sword
• French, a glimpse into the future
• German
• Effective Terror Bombing
• Ineffective Systems Attack
• UK, campaign and cover-up

Why Inter-war Interest in EBO?

The Birth of the Concept

High Altitude Daylight Precision Bombing

Procedures to Implement the Concept

• Study of America’s Industrial Web
• A new kind of Intelligence
• Independent Air Campaigns

Organization That Facilitates Those Procedures

An Independent Air Force

Enabling Technology

Enabling Technology

EBO in WWII

• Submarine with an edge
• Early British bombing
• British bombing matures - and stagnates

Early Operations Frustrating

• Early advantage squandered in small raids
• “Diversions” produce mixed results
• Contribute to “Sunny Stalingrad”
• Right idea at wrong time

Bloody Middle Period

• The thinking enemy
• Lots of radar controlled AAA
• Bomber Destroyers
• Wolf tactics
• The price
• Bloody battles
• Bloody campaign
• about 60,000 KIA for UK and US

Decisive Conclusion�Conventional View

• Divert
• Anti Aircraft Artillery (AAA) 15,000
• Ammunition 50 million rounds
• Soldiers/Airman “Hundreds of thousands
• Destroy
• 10,170 Tanks = 1/3 of production
• 14,860 Artillery

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Decisive Conclusion�New View

• Germany ran on coal
• 98% Power
• 98% RR
• Germany’s coal fields concentrated
• 2/3 Ruhr, 1/3 Silesia
• After USSR took Silesia 100% from Ruhr
• Bombing of rail yards “blockaded” coal
• Germany stopped.

Victory in The Pacific

• A-Bomb
• Victory for Airpower
• Defeat for precision
• Hansel’s lament
• A-Bomb’s long term effect on view of Airpower
• “If they had had any crude oil.”
• The A-Bomb’s other casualty - precision

Pacific, �What Might Have Been

Strategic Warfare in Korea

Strategic Warfare in Vietnam

The Gulf War

• Military Strategic Success
• A systems approach
• Inside out War
• Parallel attack
• Systems paralysis
• But how to cope with success
• Bad BDA - “but the lights are out.”
• Worse casualty estimates

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From Evolution to Revolution

EBO Warfare Today

Tools for execution are in the inventory

• “Cheep” B-2s (All 21 of them)
• “Cheep” All weather smart bombs

But the tools for planning are thin

• Most wargames still attrition models
• Most wargames depict to little time to show strategic effects

Does EBO Have a future?

• Yes, because of the American way of peace.

Isolationism Not An Option

• Economic, International trade growing
• By percentage of GNP
• By percentage of companies involved
• Personal
• More international travel
• More international virtual contacts
• “CNN effect” symptom NOT cause

The American Way of Peace? �The Peace of Win / Win

• America is the best example - sometimes
• American Revolution - “A peace England will want to keep”
• War of 1812 - “An agreement in the best interest of both countries”
• Mexican American War - “this is actually a treaty of restoration, returning more territory then we are seeding.”

�The Peace of Win / Win

• America is the best example - sometimes
• Civil War
• Lincoln - “with malice toward none, with charity to all”
• Johnson - peace of the prison - that lasted until the guards were withdrawn
• Spanish American
• For Spain - Prison + win/win
• For the former colonies - Prison > win/win

�The Peace of Win / Win

• America is the best example - sometimes
• World War I - see we told you so
• World War II - more later
• Korea & Vietnam - na, prerequisite for choosing the peace - winning
• Gulf War - Peace of the Prison - Saudi Student
• The Balkans - more later

Authority

• ACSC “school solution?”
• Air Force Doctrine?
• Joint Doctrine?
• Public Law?

We The People...

We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal that they are endowed by their creator with life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness...

We The People...

• Life
• Liberty
• The Pursuit of Happiness

We The People...

• Security
• Democracy
• Prosperity

Does anyone really believe we will lose our next war? Yet who believes our next enemy will become a:

• Military Ally
• Important trading partner
• Principal vacation destination

Why?

• Win / Win Peace Endure
• America is stronger/more free/richer if our friends are strong, free, and rich

What Would A Win/Win War Look Like

• Fast
• Surgical
• Low lethality
• Low destruction
• Intrusive
• Sustainable

How Do We Get There?

• We have the tools (pretty much)
• We need planning tools to match

Evolve the State of the Art

STRATEGY

ATTRITION

EFFECTS

Retains the two sidedness of the 1st,

the attrition of the 2nd and adds

Human

Factors

Treatment

of Time

System

Effects

Turn Cycle

Simulation Duration

Event Duration

Decision Cycle

Tactical

Operational

Strategic

NCA

Hours to

Days

Seconds

to Hours

Weeks to

Months

Months to

Years

Weeks to

Months

Minutes

to Days

War

Campaign

Battle

Level of War

Type of Event

Decision Cycle

Event Duration

Real combatants function

as systems made up of

internal systems

Models must depict

all combatants as

systems of systems

Infrastructure

Leadership

Forces

Population

Essentials

Leadership

Transformation

Transportation

Resources

Forces

Real Human capability

(training, experience)

should influence effectiveness

Human decision criteria

(doctrine, culture)

should be reflected in AI

Human factors influence each

level of war

decisions of war or peace are political decisions

IO/IW, deception has been decisive

crew fatigue/training/morale all play key roles

The Flow of My Talks

Lessons From The History Wargaming

What needs to be fixed to better depict all war

​

The Ancient Art of Effects Based Operations

Aerospace power provides new tools for ancient strategy

​

Wargaming Aerospace Power

​

A Global History of

The Impact of Engineers & Air Bases On Air Campaigns

​

Matt Caffrey

Matthew.Caffrey@Maxwell.AF.MIL

DSN 493-6161

(334) 953-6161