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Colorado’s Demographic Outlook��

Colorado School Finance Project

March 7, 2025

Kate Watkins, PhD

State Demographer

State Demography Office

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Key Population Trends

Net migration increasingly a key growth driver and is also slowing

Increasingly more diverse

Aging = More deaths

Slower population growth

Lower fertility rates = Fewer births

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People and the Economy

People

Demand

Jobs

“Jobs are people”

“Houses are where those jobs go to sleep”

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Global Trends & Expectations

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World population growing, yet slowing

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024.�https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Summary-of-Results.pdf

World Population

1 in 4 live in a country whose population has already peaked

Globally, women are having fewer children than they did in the 1990s

Population now expected to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s (compare to 8.2 billion in 2024)

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Growing, yet slowing

Already Peaked

Peaking �2025-2054

Growing through 2054

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024.�https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Summary-of-Results.pdf

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Slowing and Aging

World

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024.�https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Summary-of-Results.pdf

Age 20 to 64

Age 0 to 19

Age 65+

The school-age population is expected to decline globally due to lower birth rates

UN projections: https://population.un.org/wpp/

McKinsey report: https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality

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Colorado Trends & Expectations

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Population growth rates are slowing

Slowing U.S. Population Growth

Several states continue to see their populations shrink
U.S. overall expected to enter natural decline (more deaths than births) in 2038 based on latest projections

Annual Population Percent Change

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections; U.S. Census Bureau population projections, main series 2022-2100.

Colorado

U.S.

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Population Shares

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.

1.8% in 2023

2.1% in 2050

Colorado Share of the U.S. Population

U.S. population growth is a key contributor of Colorado’s growth

Projections assume the state will continue to pick up a higher share of the U.S. population

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Colorado’s Population

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.

5.9 million in 2023

Average Annual Growth �by Decade

1970s 68,000 2.7%

1980s 40,000 1.3%

1990s 104,000 2.8%

2000s 71,000 1.5%

2010s 73,000 1.4%

2020s 54,000 0.9%

2030s 65,000 1.0%

2040s 45,000 0.6%

Millions

7.4 million �and growing in 2050

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Components of Population Change

Natural Change

Net Migration

Births minus Deaths

In-Migration minus Out-Migration

Domestic & International

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Colorado Components of Population Change

Projections

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.

(Births – Deaths)

(Ins – Outs)

80,000

35,000

Historical Average

Annual Growth

1970 to 2023: 68,900

2010s: 75,800

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Updated estimates and near-term TABOR growth outlook

Source: State Demography Office, draft 2024 estimates updated January 2025.

Population growth is expected to slow with subdued net migration in 2025 and 2026

Note: The TABOR/Referendum C growth calculation is based on Census Bureau population estimates, not those published by the State Demography Office.

Estimates include information from Census Bureau vintage 2024 estimates for 2020 through 2024.

Colorado Components of Change and Population Growth

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Fertility rates continue to decline�

Significant declines in young female fertility

Increases in older female fertility

Colorado Fertility Rate by Age of Mother

Source: Colorado Demography Office vintage 2023 estimates and projections; Colorado birth estimates from Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, 2024.

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Colorado deaths expected to overtake births in 2053

Births increase slowly due to larger female population

Deaths increase due to larger population in older age groups subject to higher mortality

Colorado enters natural decline in 2053 vs. the U.S. in 2038

Source: Colorado Demography Office vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/assets/html/netmighist.html

Births

Deaths

Colorado Births and Deaths

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Natural change, 2020 to 2030

From 2020 to 2030, �35 counties expected to experience natural decline

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The Colorado long-term forecast

Statewide of increase 1.5 million people between 2023 and 2050

1.4 million along the Front Range (90%)

768,800 Denver-Boulder (50%)
339,177 North Front Range (22%)
260,500 South Front Range (27%)

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Where do they come from? Where do they go?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/State_Migration/

2023 Net Migration to Colorado

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Recent Growth Across States

Shrinking

Growing

Source: U.S. Census Bureau vintage 2024 estimates.

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Aging Matters

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Colorado’s population by age and generation

Visit the SDO website to view animated changes in these populations over time: https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/Age-Animation-Bars/

2023

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Colorado’s population by age and generation

Visit the SDO website to view animated changes in these populations over time: https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/Age-Animation-Bars/

2050

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Every county has a unique age composition

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.

Interactive visuals available at: https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/Age-Animation-Bars

Generation Alpha (2015 – 2029)

Generation Z�(1997 – 2014)

Millennials�(1981 – 1996)

Generation X�(1965 – 1980)

Baby Boomers�(1946 – 1964)

Silent Generation�(1928 – 1945)

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U.S. Income by Age

Average Income by Age, 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Social Security & Retirement Income

Wages, Salaries, Business Income

Dividends, Interest, Rent

All Other

Labor force participation drives income

Retirement income key to sustain spending for older adults

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U.S. Taxes Paid by Age

Average Income Taxes Paid by Age, 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Federal Income Tax

State & Local Income Tax

An aging population translates to lower per capita income tax revenue

Tax structures often include exemptions for retirement income

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U.S. Spending by Age

Average Spending by Age, 2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey.

An aging population translates to lower per capita sales tax revenue

Consumer demand will shift with age

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Colorado’s population by age over time

Age

2020

2030

2040

2050

Population

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/assets/html/population.html

Populations aged 25 to 54 projected to grow through 2050

However, we need positive net migration to support this growth

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Aging and the Economy

Labor Force

Faster growth in retirees (40,000/year statewide)
Eldercare may dampen labor force participation

Slower growth in new entrants into the labor force
Young entrants more diverse

Migration needed to meet demand for jobs
More competition for talent within and outside of Colorado

People

Demand

Jobs

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Aging and the Economy

Housing

Slower growth among young adults moving forward (less demand?)
Retirees aging in place

- 82% of those 65+ are homeowners

- Living longer

- Moving less

- 42% of those 65+ live alone

- More demand for rehab/re-model to age in place?

Housing transition

- Age 80-84 primary age group aging into needing care or moving into care communities

- What will happen to these homes?

Pressure on the housing stock

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Workers vs. Retirees in Colorado

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/assets/html/population.html

2025

Ratio of those Age 25 to 54 to those 65+

Economic impacts of aging will depend on several factors, including:

Wealth, retirement saving, spending patterns
Labor force participation among those 65+

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Declines in the traditional working age population expected in half of Colorado’s counties�

Forecast Change in 16 to 64 Year Old Population, 2020 to 2030

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/assets/html/population.html

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The 75+ population is the fastest growing cohort

Population Aged 75+

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/assets/html/population.html

2025

Health issues and need for assistance tend to increase significantly at age 80+

230,000 new 75+ year olds expected over the next 10 years (56% increase)

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Change in the Age 75+ Population

Forecast Change in 75+ Year Old Population, 2020 to 2030

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/AgeMap/

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School Age Population

Population Aged 5 to 17

2025

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/assets/html/population.html

Declines in the school age population expected to slow as more Millennials reach peak child bearing age

Trends differ significantly across regions of the state, with declines expected to continue in several areas, strong growth in others

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Change in the School Age population

Forecast Change in Age 5 to 19 Population, 2020 to 2030

Source: State Demography Office, vintage 2023 estimates and projections.�https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/AgeMap/

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Strategic Growth and Strategic Shrinkage

Is population growth good?
How do we grow economies (or rethink economic growth) when �populations shrink?
How do we make the most of slower growth and aging populations?
How should we plan for the unexpected (higher or lower population growth)?�

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Methodology & Uncertainties

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People and the Economy

People

Demand

Jobs

“Jobs are people”

“Houses are where those jobs go to sleep”

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Colorado Population Forecast Methodology

U.S. growth is important

Jobs are people

Age matters

Job demand and expected retirements drive migration

Differences between supply and demand resolved by net migration

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Population projection risks & uncertainties

National population growth � - Immigration policy� - Foreign conflict and economic issues� - Birth rates
Push/pull relative to other states, counties� - Cost of housing� - Competition for labor� - Natural disasters, water availability
Economic activity� - Net migration tied to the business cycle

Automation & AI: Will we need as many workers?
Remote/hybrid work: Less concentrated growth?
Housing turnover: Will more retirees move out freeing up supply?

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Range of uncertainties

Technological Change

Climate Disaster

Policy Change

Geopolitical Conflict

Demographic Change

Most Predictable

Least Predictable

Don’t know where, when, or how big

Can predict where, when, and how big

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Robust decision-making

Plan

Establish goals, identify metrics, �draft plans

Forecast & Test �Stress test plans under a range of possible futures

Assess

Revise plans and develop adaptive strategies based on findings

Adapted from Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (2019). https://rdcu.be/diKr8

Monitor & Adapt

Adjust plans and implement adaptive strategies based on actual conditions

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Questions?��Kate Watkins�kate.m.watkins@state.co.us��demography.dola.colorado.gov

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