Cash Flow Workshop
Colin King, CPA, CFA
info@profitmastery.net | www.profitmastery.net
Where we are
2
Step 4 of the Financial Operating System.
1
Plan properly
2
Monitor financial position
3
Cost structure (price, volume, cost)
4
Manage cash flow
TODAY
5
Manage growth
6
Capital management
7
Plan for transition
Agenda
3
1
Foundations
How cash flow works · accrual vs. cash · profit vs. cash flow
2
Anatomy of a cash flow statement
Operating, investing, financing · direct vs. indirect
3
Managing cash flow
Weekly cash tracker · 13-week cash forecast (13WCF)
4
Strategy & tactics
Liquidity and runway · strategies, tactics and levers
4
My goal for today
Make cash simple + fast + easy
Zero accounting knowledge needed, fast enough to do in 30 minutes a week, you don’t even need a set of books.
Foundations
5
Defining cash flow
6
Beginning
cash
+
Cash
inflows
−
Cash
outflows
=
Ending
cash
CASH FLOW
Every report we build today is this equation on a different interval: daily, weekly, monthly, 13 weeks.
If you can reconcile this equation from your bank account, you understand your cash flow.
Beginning cash + cash inflows − cash outflows = ending cash.
How cash works
7
CASH IN (SOURCES)
CASH OUT (USES)
Bank account
KEY POINT The bank account, not the P&L, is the primary source of truth for cash flow.
Money moves in and out of the bank account.
8
How is profit different from cash flow?
Accrual vs. cash-basis
9
ACCRUAL BASIS
Earned / incurred
Records revenue when earned and expenses when incurred, regardless of when cash moves.
CASH BASIS
Timing
Records money when it hits or leaves the bank. Managing from the bank balance.
EXAMPLE Invoice $10,000 on March 15, customer pays May 2. Accrual revenue = March. Cash flow = May.
Question is “when” to use them, not which one.
Accrual vs. cash
10
You clock in for 8 hours of work on Monday. Payday is next Friday. When do you see profit, and when do you see cash?
Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday |
1 8 hours worked�(accrual profit) | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 Payday�(cash flow) |
Profit vs. cash flow – key drivers
11
01
Receivables timing
Revenue is booked, but you haven't collected it yet.
02
Inventory build
You pay for stock before you sell it.
03
Payables timing
When you actually pay suppliers and credit cards.
04
Loan principal
Only interest hits the P&L. Principal still leaves the bank.
05
Owner distributions
Never on the P&L, often a major outflow.
06
Equipment purchases
Expensed slowly through depreciation, paid for all at once.
Fund business ($100) and buy inventory ($20)
12
P&L | |
Sales | - |
COGS | - |
Gross Profit | - |
Overhead | - |
Depreciation | - |
Net Profit | - |
Balance Sheet | |
Cash | $80 |
A/R | - |
Inventory | $20 |
Equipment | - |
Total Assets | $100 |
A/P | - |
Debt | - |
Equity | $100 |
Total L&E | $100 |
Cash Flow | |
Profit | - |
Depreciation | - |
A/R | - |
A/P | - |
Inventory | ($20) |
Op. Cash Flow | ($20) |
Equity | $100 |
Capex | - |
Non-Op. Cash Flow | $100 |
Make a sale ($25) on credit (A/R)
13
P&L | |
Sales | $25 |
COGS | ($10) |
Gross Profit | $15 |
Overhead | - |
Depreciation | - |
Net Profit | $15 |
Balance Sheet | |
Cash | $80 |
A/R | $25 |
Inventory | $10 |
Equipment | - |
Total Assets | $115 |
A/P | - |
Debt | - |
Equity | $115 |
Total L&E | $115 |
Cash Flow | |
Profit | $15 |
Depreciation | - |
A/R | ($25) |
A/P | - |
Inventory | ($10) |
Op. Cash Flow | ($20) |
Equity | $100 |
Capex | - |
Non-Op. Cash Flow | $100 |
Buy equipment ($25) and make a sale ($25)
14
P&L | |
Sales | $50 |
COGS | ($20) |
Gross Profit | $30 |
Overhead | - |
Depreciation | - |
Net Profit | $30 |
Balance Sheet | |
Cash | $55 |
A/R | $50 |
Inventory | - |
Equipment | $25 |
Total Assets | $130 |
A/P | - |
Debt | - |
Equity | $130 |
Total L&E | $130 |
Cash Flow | |
Profit | $30 |
Depreciation | - |
A/R | ($50) |
A/P | - |
Inventory | - |
Op. Cash Flow | ($20) |
Equity | $100 |
Capex | ($25) |
Non-Op. Cash Flow | $75 |
Reconciling profit & cash flow
15
Cash Flow Statement
P&L
So how do we bridge profit and cash flow?
Statement of Cash Flows
The third financial statement tells us where the profit went.
We can then "walk" from:
sales → profit → cash flow
Anatomy of a cash flow statement
16
Sections of a cash flow statement
17
OPERATING
Does the core business generate cash?
Operating cash flow
18
Cash from your core business activity. It starts with profit and reconciles profit to cash flow.
FORMULA Operating cash flow = profit + depreciation ± working capital changes
Indirect method | |
Profit | 50,000 |
Depreciation | 10,000 |
Change in receivables | (10,000) |
Change in inventory | 5,000 |
Change in payables | 5,000 |
Operating cash flow | 60,000 |
Sections of a cash flow statement
19
OPERATING
Does the core business generate cash?
INVESTING
What are we building or buying?
Investing cash flow
20
Cash from long-term asset investments and divestitures.
ALSO CALLED
Typically referred to as "capital expenditures" or capex.
Indirect method | |
Profit | 50,000 |
Depreciation | 10,000 |
Change in receivables | (10,000) |
Change in inventory | 5,000 |
Change in payables | 5,000 |
Operating cash flow | 60,000 |
Capital expenditures | (25,000) |
Assets sold | 5,000 |
Acquisitions | – |
Investing cash flow | (20,000) |
Sections of a cash flow statement
21
OPERATING
Does the core business generate cash?
INVESTING
What are we building or buying?
KEY POINT Operating cash flow = core business activity. Investing + financing = non-operating cash flows.
FINANCING
How is the business funded?
Financing cash flow
22
Cash from your funding sources: debt and equity.
KEY POINT Think of these as your funding sources.
Indirect method | |
Profit | 50,000 |
Depreciation | 10,000 |
Change in receivables | (10,000) |
Change in inventory | 5,000 |
Change in payables | 5,000 |
Operating cash flow | 60,000 |
Capital expenditures | (25,000) |
Assets sold | 5,000 |
Acquisitions | – |
Investing cash flow | (20,000) |
Debt borrowed | 5,000 |
Debt principal payments | (20,000) |
Dividends | (10,000) |
Equity raised | – |
Financing cash flow | (25,000) |
The cash flow statement
23
Add the three sections together to get the net change in cash.
Indirect method | |
Profit | 50,000 |
Depreciation | 10,000 |
Change in receivables | (10,000) |
Change in inventory | 5,000 |
Change in payables | 5,000 |
Operating cash flow | 60,000 |
Capital expenditures | (25,000) |
Assets sold | 5,000 |
Acquisitions | – |
Investing cash flow | (20,000) |
Debt borrowed | 5,000 |
Debt principal payments | (20,000) |
Dividends | (10,000) |
Equity raised | – |
Financing cash flow | (25,000) |
Change in cash | 15,000 |
OPERATING + INVESTING + FINANCING
60,000 − 20,000 − 25,000
= $15,000 net change in cash
Sources & uses of cash
24
SOURCES: WHERE CASH COMES FROM
USES: WHERE CASH GOES
HABIT Review sources and uses in your monthly and annual financial review. Later, this becomes your monthly cash budget.
Every bank transaction is a source or a use in one of the three sections.
Sources & uses of cash
25
What's happening at this company?
26
The cash flow statement is confusing.
Is there a better way to manage cash flow?
The big secret
27
Cash flow is hard
The business world wants you to believe you need specialized knowledge to have it.
Cash flow is hard
28
Are any of these businesses generating cash?
BUSINESS A
Cash receipts
$100
Payroll
($50)
Expenses
($35)
Cash flow
$15
BUSINESS B
Cash receipts
$100
Payroll
($75)
Expenses
($45)
Cash flow
($20)
BUSINESS C
Cash receipts
$100
Payroll
($75)
Expenses
($55)
Cash flow
($30)
Every business generates cash flow
29
Each business has $100 in cash receipts from customers.
BUSINESS A
Cash receipts
$100
Payroll
($50)
Expenses
($35)
Cash flow
$15
BUSINESS B
Cash receipts
$100
Payroll
($75)
Expenses
($45)
Cash flow
($20)
BUSINESS C
Cash receipts
$100
Payroll
($75)
Expenses
($55)
Cash flow
($30)
Yes… All three bring in $100, they just choose to spend it differently. Cash flow isn't hard to generate. It comes down to how you allocate it.
The big secret
30
Myth
Cash flow is hard
The business world wants you to believe you need specialized knowledge to have it.
Truth
Every business generates cash
Reframe your thinking. EVERY business generates cash flow (cash receipts from customers) and it comes down to how you spend it.
Direct method of cash flow
31
Start with cash receipts from customers, then subtract cash paid for operating activities.
Direct vs. indirect
32
Operating cash flow is identical, just calculated differently. Non-operating cash flows are identical.
Operating cash flow is identical, but calculated differently
Non-operating cash flows are identical
Direct vs. indirect
33
Operating cash flow is identical, just calculated differently. Non-operating cash flows are identical.
Indirect method | |
Profit | 50,000 |
Depreciation | 10,000 |
Change in receivables | (10,000) |
Change in inventory | 5,000 |
Change in payables | 5,000 |
| |
Operating cash flow | 60,000 |
Capital expenditures | (25,000) |
Assets sold | 5,000 |
Acquisitions | – |
Investing cash flow | (20,000) |
Debt borrowed | 5,000 |
Debt principal payments | (20,000) |
Dividends | (10,000) |
Equity raised | – |
Financing cash flow | (25,000) |
Change in cash | 15,000 |
Direct method | |
Cash receipts from customers | 475,000 |
Cash paid for inventory | (202,000) |
Cash paid to employees | (155,000) |
Cash paid to suppliers | (37,000) |
Interest paid | (9,000) |
Taxes paid | (12,000) |
Operating cash flow | 60,000 |
Capital expenditures | (25,000) |
Assets sold | 5,000 |
Acquisitions | – |
Investing cash flow | (20,000) |
Debt borrowed | 5,000 |
Debt principal payments | (20,000) |
Dividends | (10,000) |
Equity raised | – |
Financing cash flow | (25,000) |
Change in cash | 15,000 |
Indirect vs. direct
34
Same operating cash flow. Two very different ways to get there.
Indirect method
What QuickBooks gives you
Direct method
Cash in minus cash out
35
How do we use this information?
36
The direct method
= bank balance accounting.
Every accountant has told you not to run your business from the bank balance. I'm giving you full permission, as long as you follow the rules.
The rules
37
1. It's a second set of books only
It never replaces your accounting system, your CPA, or your tax return.
2. It guides short-term cash planning
Use it alongside your monthly financial review, not instead of it.
3. It won't show profitability problems
Margins and overhead efficiency still come from your P&L and scorecard.
4. It won't show balance sheet problems
Working capital and debt levels still come from your balance sheet.
Managing cash flow
38
A cadence for cash
39
30 min / week
Weekly cash flow
Categorize the week's actual inflows and outflows from the bank. Your 'cash P&L'.
Updated weekly
13-week forecast
Built on top of the tracker. Predicts the next quarter, week by week.
How it works
40
01 Download
Download transactions from ALL business bank accounts: checking, savings, money market. (No credit cards!)
02 Categorize
Pick 10 to 15 categories (expand as you grow). Sort by description, then categorize. Like items group themselves.
03 Review
Monthly view to compare against your P&L. Weekly view to see near-term patterns.
04 Forecast
Roll it forward 13 weeks.
Rules for categorizing
41
A STARTER LIST
Category | Type |
Customer collections & refunds | Operating |
Payroll and payroll taxes | Operating |
Materials and suppliers | Operating |
Rent and utilities | Operating |
Credit card payment | Operating |
Other overhead | Operating |
Loan payments | Non-operating |
Equipment purchases | Non-operating |
Owner distributions | Non-operating |
Taxes | Non-operating |
Sort & categorize
42
Example bank download, sorted by description.
Date | Description | Amount | Category | Type |
10/01 | ACH ADP PAYROLL | (24,812) | Payroll | Operating |
10/01 | ACH ADP TAX | (6,104) | Payroll | Operating |
10/02 | AMEX EPAYMENT | (15,200) | Credit card payment | Operating |
10/02 | DEPOSIT MOBILE | 11,450 | Customer collections | Operating |
10/03 | FERGUSON SUPPLY | (8,930) | Materials and suppliers | Operating |
10/05 | FIRST BANK LOAN PMT | (6,000) | Loan payments | Non-operating |
10/05 | ONLINE XFER TO OWNER | (7,000) | Owner distributions | Non-operating |
10/06 | STRIPE TRANSFER | 9,876 | Customer collections | Operating |
Illustrative transactions. Vendor and bank names are examples only.
Monthly view: compare it to your P&L
43
Sample monthly view of a cash flow tracker.
| Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Sales | $97,000 | $206,000 | $378,000 | $251,000 | $259,000 | $269,000 |
Insurance | - | (1,000) | - | - | (1,000) | (1,000) |
CC | - | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (3,000) | (2,000) |
Software | - | (3,000) | (7,000) | (4,000) | (3,000) | (3,000) |
G&A | (6,000) | (5,000) | (2,000) | (8,000) | (10,000) | (7,000) |
Payroll | (30,000) | (47,000) | (48,000) | (74,000) | (51,000) | (105,000) |
Adjuster | (50,000) | (142,000) | (122,000) | (169,000) | (121,000) | (64,000) |
Operating | 11,000 | 7,000 | 197,000 | (5,000) | 70,000 | 88,000 |
True up | - | - | 136,000 | - | - | - |
Other Income | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Legal | (14,000) | (7,000) | - | - | - | - |
Loan Payment | (44,000) | (41,000) | (40,000) | (41,000) | (40,000) | (40,000) |
Non-operating | (58,000) | (48,000) | 95,000 | (40,000) | (40,000) | (40,000) |
Grand Total | (48,000) | (41,000) | 292,000 | (46,000) | 29,000 | 48,000 |
Weekly view: patterns emerge
44
A weekly tracker is a mini cash P&L. After a few months, the rhythm of your business shows up.
| 8/10 - 8/16 | 8/17 - 8/23 | 8/24 - 8/30 | 8/31 - 9/6 | 9/7 - 9/13 | 9/14 - 9/20 | 9/21 - 9/27 | 9/28 - 10/2 |
Sales | $99,000 | $50,000 | $51,000 | $99,000 | $40,000 | $33,000 | $74,000 | $41,000 |
Insurance | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
CC | - | - | - | - | - | - | (3,000) | (2,000) |
Software | - | - | - | - | - | - | (3,000) | (3,000) |
G&A | (4,000) | - | (2,000) | (2,000) | (3,000) | (1,000) | (2,000) | - |
Adjuster | (39,000) | (2,000) | - | (38,000) | (1,000) | - | (30,000) | - |
Payroll | - | (78,000) | - | - | - | - | (77,000) | - |
Operating | 56,000 | (30,000) | 49,000 | 59,000 | 36,000 | 32,000 | (41,000) | 36,000 |
Other Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Loan Payment | (7,000) | (34,000) | - | - | - | (7,000) | (33,000) | - |
Non-operating | (7,000) | (34,000) | - | - | - | (7,000) | (33,000) | - |
Grand Total | 49,000 | (64,000) | 49,000 | 59,000 | 36,000 | 25,000 | (74,000) | 36,000 |
The daily cash report
45
A snapshot of cash balance, inflows and outflows in your inbox every morning.
WHAT IT CONTAINS
WHY IT WORKS
You are never caught off guard by a low balance, you stay on the lookout for large items, and you build good cash habits.
The weekly cash tracker
46
Built straight from the bank account every week. Group similar cash flows to see inflows, outflows and ending cash.
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 |
A/R collections | 31 | 24 | 29 |
Payroll, rent, vendors | (25) | (27) | (22) |
Operating cash flow | 6 | (3) | 7 |
Loan pmts · capex · distributions | – | (6) | (4) |
Net cash flow | 6 | (9) | 3 |
+ Beginning cash | 52 | 58 | 49 |
= Ending cash | 58 | 49 | 52 |
WHY IT MATTERS
The weekly cash tracker
47
Four habits that turn bank data into a plan.
1
Tracking
2
Categorize
3
Patterns
4
Planning
Why does this work?
48
"This is extra work for me. Why should I bother?"
Fast
Easy
Simple
RESULT This tool gives you a real-time view of cash flow in your business.
49
How do you build a weekly cash tracker?
Step-by-step instructions
50
Seven steps from bank download to action plan.
01
Download transactions from all business bank accounts
02
Add to Excel and clean up the data
03
Sort by transaction description
04
Categorize into 10 to 15 groups
05
Label as operating or non-operating
06
Add to the template
07
Action plan
Gather data
51
Steps 1 and 2.
1
Get transactions from all accounts
TIP Use full calendar weeks, Monday to Sunday.
2
Add to Excel and clean up the data
TIP If it didn't clear the bank, it doesn't belong in the tracker.
Download bank data
52
Find your bank transactions every week, then export them to categorize.
Find your bank transactions every week
Download / export to categorize and add
Simple categories
53
Steps 3 and 4.
3
Sort by transaction description
TIP Sorting turns an hour of tagging into ten minutes.
4
Categorize into 10 to 15 groups
TIP Don't overthink categories. You can always expand later.
Export and sort
54
Sort by description so similar transactions sit together.
Group similar descriptions for easy categorizing
Categorize
55
Pick 10 to 15 categories of inflows and outflows.
SUGGESTED CATEGORIES
RULE Let your most frequent transactions dictate the categories.
Group similar items
56
Categorize whole blocks of matching transactions at once.
Categorize and label operating vs. non-operating
57
VIDEO PLACEHOLDER
Walkthrough: categorizing transactions and flagging operating vs. non-operating
Summarize with a pivot table
58
VIDEO PLACEHOLDER
Walkthrough: building the pivot table
Weekly view of cash flow
59
VIDEO PLACEHOLDER
Walkthrough: the weekly view of cash flow
Analyze and plan
60
Steps 5 and 6.
5
Add to the template
TIP The template makes patterns easy to spot.
6
Action plan
TIP Consistency matters. Update and review it every week.
Weekly cash tracker template
61
Historic weekly cash flows on the left, 13-week forecast on the right.
Historic weekly cash flows
13-week cash forecast
A finished weekly cash tracker
62
Placeholder: replace with the final example tracker.
63
What do you do with this tool?
The 13-week forecast (13WCF)
64
Purpose
Short-term cash planning
Anticipate all cash inflows & outflows over the next 13 weeks (3 months) to plan for potential shortfalls.
How it works
Built on top of weekly cash flow
Why 13 weeks?
History repeats itself
What it answers
65
01
Can I make payroll next week? Next month?
02
Can I pay my next credit card bill in full?
03
Can I pay off this loan?
04
Can I take a distribution?
05
Can I sleep tonight knowing the business will make it?
How to build your 13WCF
66
01 Start
with your weekly tracker
02 Known items
Payroll dates, rent, loan payments, card due dates, insurance
03 Inflows
Average weekly inflows, apply growth rate to LY, use your A/R schedule
04 Other outflows
Planned equipment, distributions, taxes, bonuses
05 Beginning cash
Beginning cash + inflows - outflows = ending cash
06 Update weekly
Replace forecast with actuals, add a new week
Consistency beats accuracy. A forecast that's 90% right and updated every week beats a perfect one you never open.
67
Let's try it…
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
68
These are your weekly cash flows for the past 5 weeks. How would you forecast the next 4 weeks?
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | | | | |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | | | | |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | | | | |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | | | | |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | | | | |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | | | | |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
69
Inflows are consistent week to week. 5-week average = $15,162.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | | | | |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | | | | |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | | | | |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | | | | |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | | | | |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
70
Rent = $5,800, paid on the 1st of each month.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | | | | |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | | | | |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | | | | |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | | | | |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
71
The last 3 payrolls averaged $17,250, paid biweekly.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | | | | |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | | | | |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | | | | |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
72
Royalties are paid once a month, on the previous month's sales.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | | | | |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | | | | |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
73
The credit card bill averages $5,000 a month over the past year.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | | | | |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
74
Other overhead averages $1,000 a week over the past 5 weeks.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | | | | |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
75
Add up the forecast outflows for each week.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | (23,250) | (1,000) | (24,000) | (6,800) |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
76
Inflows minus outflows = operating cash flow.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | (23,250) | (1,000) | (24,000) | (6,800) |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | (8,088) | 14,162 | (8,838) | 8,362 |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | | | | |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | | | | |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
77
Loan payments = $1,875 on the 15th of each month. No expected line of credit draws.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | (23,250) | (1,000) | (24,000) | (6,800) |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | (8,088) | 14,162 | (8,838) | 8,362 |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | – | (1,875) | – | – |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | | | | |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
78
Operating cash flow less loan payments = net cash flow.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | (23,250) | (1,000) | (24,000) | (6,800) |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | (8,088) | 14,162 | (8,838) | 8,362 |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | – | (1,875) | – | – |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | (8,088) | 12,287 | (8,838) | 8,362 |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | | | | |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks
79
Roll the bank balance forward. Week 6 dips to $6,241: the low-water week.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 |
Cash inflows | 14,820 | 15,340 | 14,960 | 15,580 | 15,110 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 | 15,162 |
Rent | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) | – | – | – | (5,800) |
Payroll | – | (17,094) | – | (17,538) | – | (17,250) | – | (17,250) | – |
Royalties | – | – | – | (5,760) | – | – | – | (5,750) | – |
Credit card | – | (4,494) | – | – | – | (5,000) | – | – | – |
G&A | (493) | (650) | (1,279) | (640) | (1,933) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) | (1,000) |
Cash outflows | (6,293) | (22,238) | (1,279) | (23,938) | (7,733) | (23,250) | (1,000) | (24,000) | (6,800) |
Op. cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | (8,088) | 14,162 | (8,838) | 8,362 |
Loan payments | – | – | (1,875) | – | – | – | (1,875) | – | – |
LOC | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Net cash flow | 8,527 | (6,898) | 13,681 | (8,358) | 7,377 | (8,088) | 12,287 | (8,838) | 8,362 |
Bank balance | 8,527 | 1,629 | 15,310 | 6,952 | 14,329 | 6,241 | 18,528 | 9,690 | 18,052 |
FORECAST
ACTUAL
What the forecast is & isn't
80
It is
It isn't
Your goal: live inside this document until you're comfortably generating enough cash every week.
81
How do you use this tool?
Scenario #1
82
What does the forecast tell you? Where is the problem?
Scenario #2
83
What changed? Look at the financing rows.
Scenario #3
84
Operating cash flow = $10,000. What does that mean for the plan?
Strategy & tactics
85
86
"People calculate too much and think too little."
Charlie Munger
The most common cash flow problems
87
01
Not profitable
Operating below breakeven
02
Growing fast
Fueling growth with increased investments
03
Too much debt
Loan payments eating into cash flow
04
Taking too much out
Distributions bigger than cash flow supports
05
Timing
The #1 challenge in the short run
Five levers to manage cash
88
Every cash flow tactic pulls one of these.
01
Accelerate
Get paid faster
02
Increase
Get paid more
03
Eliminate
Pay less
04
Delay
Pay later
05
Unlock
One-time gain
Not every tactic permanently increases cash flow. Use the list as a cheat sheet when a situation calls for it.
Liquidity: layers you can tap
89
LAYER 1
Cash reserves
Find your minimum cash level and build to it. First line of defense and the cheapest.
LAYER 2
Backup financing
Line of credit, business credit cards. Open these before you need them.
LAYER 3
Emergency funds
Merchant advances, slow-paying vendors, owner injections. Expensive, last resort.
For startups and turnarounds, track cash runway: cash on hand / weekly net outflow.
Tactics by area
90
Revenue
Expenses
Working capital
Financing
Revenue tactics
91
Goal: get paid faster, and get paid more on each sale.
Invoicing and collections
Increase price
Increase volume
Other levers
Expense tactics
92
Goal: reduce, eliminate or delay outflows.
STRUCTURAL
HOUSEKEEPING
VENDORS AND TIMING
Working capital tactics
93
Goal: less capital invested, and maximum conversion of profit to cash.
Receivables
Covered under revenue: invoicing, collections, deposits, terms.
Payables
Covered under expenses: vendor terms, slow-pay, batching.
Inventory
Catalog management, dynamic pricing, just-in-time ordering, dropship, consignment.
Prepaids
Move annual contracts to monthly or quarterly billing; cancel and take the pro-rata refund.
MEASURE IT
DSO
Days sales outstanding: how fast you collect
DPO
Days payables outstanding: how long you hold cash
DIH
Days inventory held: how long cash sits on shelves
CCC
Cash conversion cycle = DSO + DIH − DPO
Financing tactics
94
Goal: reduce risk and lower the monthly burden.
Manage debt
Assets
Equity
Divestitures
RULE OF THUMB Cash Flow Index = loan balance ÷ monthly payment. Low index: pay it off or refinance it first.
Cash management = 4 goals + 5 levers
95
GOALS
LEVERS
Key takeaways
96
01
Profit isn't cash
Six drivers separate them. Growth is one of the biggest.
02
Use the direct method
Bank balance accounting, as long as you follow the rules.
03
Track weekly
30 minutes, straight from the bank.
04
Forecast 13 weeks
Feel the heat around the corner.
05
Pull the right lever
Accelerate, increase, eliminate, delay, unlock.
Thanks!
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info@profitmastery.net
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98
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