1 of 100

Cash Flow Workshop

Colin King, CPA, CFA

info@profitmastery.net | www.profitmastery.net

2 of 100

Where we are

2

Step 4 of the Financial Operating System.

1

Plan properly

2

Monitor financial position

3

Cost structure (price, volume, cost)

4

Manage cash flow

TODAY

5

Manage growth

6

Capital management

7

Plan for transition

3 of 100

Agenda

3

1

Foundations

How cash flow works · accrual vs. cash · profit vs. cash flow

2

Anatomy of a cash flow statement

Operating, investing, financing · direct vs. indirect

3

Managing cash flow

Weekly cash tracker · 13-week cash forecast (13WCF)

4

Strategy & tactics

Liquidity and runway · strategies, tactics and levers

4 of 100

4

My goal for today

Make cash simple + fast + easy

Zero accounting knowledge needed, fast enough to do in 30 minutes a week, you don’t even need a set of books.

5 of 100

Foundations

  • The cash flow equation
  • How cash flow works
  • Accrual basis vs. cash basis
  • Profit vs. cash flow, and what drives the gap

5

6 of 100

Defining cash flow

6

Beginning

cash

+

Cash

inflows

−

Cash

outflows

=

Ending

cash

CASH FLOW

Every report we build today is this equation on a different interval: daily, weekly, monthly, 13 weeks.

If you can reconcile this equation from your bank account, you understand your cash flow.

Beginning cash + cash inflows − cash outflows = ending cash.

7 of 100

How cash works

7

CASH IN (SOURCES)

  • Customer collections (sales)
  • Loan proceeds
  • Owner contributions
  • Asset sales, refunds, interest

CASH OUT (USES)

  • Inventory purchases
  • Credit card bills
  • Payroll, rent, vendor payments
  • Loan payments
  • Equipment and capex
  • Owner distributions, taxes

Bank account

KEY POINT The bank account, not the P&L, is the primary source of truth for cash flow.

Money moves in and out of the bank account.

8 of 100

8

How is profit different from cash flow?

9 of 100

Accrual vs. cash-basis

9

ACCRUAL BASIS

Earned / incurred

Records revenue when earned and expenses when incurred, regardless of when cash moves.

  • Matches sales and expenses (better for measuring profit)
  • Shows how well the business is doing (profit)
  • Misleading view of cash flows

CASH BASIS

Timing

Records money when it hits or leaves the bank. Managing from the bank balance.

  • Matches reality in the bank (better for survival)
  • What your bank statement shows
  • Misleading view of profits

EXAMPLE Invoice $10,000 on March 15, customer pays May 2. Accrual revenue = March. Cash flow = May.

Question is “when” to use them, not which one.

10 of 100

Accrual vs. cash

10

You clock in for 8 hours of work on Monday. Payday is next Friday. When do you see profit, and when do you see cash?

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

1

8 hours worked�(accrual profit)

2

3

4

5

8

9

10

11

12

Payday�(cash flow)

11 of 100

Profit vs. cash flow – key drivers

11

01

Receivables timing

Revenue is booked, but you haven't collected it yet.

02

Inventory build

You pay for stock before you sell it.

03

Payables timing

When you actually pay suppliers and credit cards.

04

Loan principal

Only interest hits the P&L. Principal still leaves the bank.

05

Owner distributions

Never on the P&L, often a major outflow.

06

Equipment purchases

Expensed slowly through depreciation, paid for all at once.

12 of 100

Fund business ($100) and buy inventory ($20)

12

P&L

Sales

-

COGS

-

Gross Profit

-

Overhead

-

Depreciation

-

Net Profit

-

Balance Sheet

Cash

$80

A/R

-

Inventory

$20

Equipment

-

Total Assets

$100

A/P

-

Debt

-

Equity

$100

Total L&E

$100

Cash Flow

Profit

-

Depreciation

-

A/R

-

A/P

-

Inventory

($20)

Op. Cash Flow

($20)

Equity

$100

Capex

-

Non-Op. Cash Flow

$100

13 of 100

Make a sale ($25) on credit (A/R)

13

P&L

Sales

$25

COGS

($10)

Gross Profit

$15

Overhead

-

Depreciation

-

Net Profit

$15

Balance Sheet

Cash

$80

A/R

$25

Inventory

$10

Equipment

-

Total Assets

$115

A/P

-

Debt

-

Equity

$115

Total L&E

$115

Cash Flow

Profit

$15

Depreciation

-

A/R

($25)

A/P

-

Inventory

($10)

Op. Cash Flow

($20)

Equity

$100

Capex

-

Non-Op. Cash Flow

$100

14 of 100

Buy equipment ($25) and make a sale ($25)

14

P&L

Sales

$50

COGS

($20)

Gross Profit

$30

Overhead

-

Depreciation

-

Net Profit

$30

Balance Sheet

Cash

$55

A/R

$50

Inventory

-

Equipment

$25

Total Assets

$130

A/P

-

Debt

-

Equity

$130

Total L&E

$130

Cash Flow

Profit

$30

Depreciation

-

A/R

($50)

A/P

-

Inventory

-

Op. Cash Flow

($20)

Equity

$100

Capex

($25)

Non-Op. Cash Flow

$75

15 of 100

Reconciling profit & cash flow

15

Cash Flow Statement

P&L

So how do we bridge profit and cash flow?

Statement of Cash Flows

The third financial statement tells us where the profit went.

We can then "walk" from:

sales → profit → cash flow

16 of 100

Anatomy of a cash flow statement

  • The three sections: operating, investing, financing
  • Sources and uses of cash
  • Direct method vs. indirect method

16

17 of 100

Sections of a cash flow statement

17

OPERATING

Does the core business generate cash?

  • Customer collections
  • Payroll, rent, vendors
  • Taxes and interest

18 of 100

Operating cash flow

18

Cash from your core business activity. It starts with profit and reconciles profit to cash flow.

  1. Start with profit
  2. Add back non-cash expenses like depreciation
  3. Adjust for working capital: receivables, inventory, payables

FORMULA Operating cash flow = profit + depreciation ± working capital changes

Indirect method

​

Profit

50,000

Depreciation

10,000

Change in receivables

(10,000)

Change in inventory

5,000

Change in payables

5,000

Operating cash flow

60,000

19 of 100

Sections of a cash flow statement

19

OPERATING

Does the core business generate cash?

  • Customer collections
  • Payroll, rent, vendors
  • Taxes and interest

INVESTING

What are we building or buying?

  • Equipment purchases
  • Property and vehicles
  • Sale of assets

20 of 100

Investing cash flow

20

Cash from long-term asset investments and divestitures.

  1. Long-term asset investments (outflows)
  2. Divestitures (inflows)

ALSO CALLED

Typically referred to as "capital expenditures" or capex.

Indirect method

​

Profit

50,000

Depreciation

10,000

Change in receivables

(10,000)

Change in inventory

5,000

Change in payables

5,000

Operating cash flow

60,000

Capital expenditures

(25,000)

Assets sold

5,000

Acquisitions

–

Investing cash flow

(20,000)

21 of 100

Sections of a cash flow statement

21

OPERATING

Does the core business generate cash?

  • Customer collections
  • Payroll, rent, vendors
  • Taxes and interest

INVESTING

What are we building or buying?

  • Equipment purchases
  • Property and vehicles
  • Sale of assets

KEY POINT Operating cash flow = core business activity. Investing + financing = non-operating cash flows.

FINANCING

How is the business funded?

  • Loan draws and payments
  • Owner contributions
  • Owner distributions

22 of 100

Financing cash flow

22

Cash from your funding sources: debt and equity.

  1. Debt: borrowings (inflows) or repayments (outflows)
  2. Equity: new investment (inflows) or distributions (outflows)

KEY POINT Think of these as your funding sources.

Indirect method

​

Profit

50,000

Depreciation

10,000

Change in receivables

(10,000)

Change in inventory

5,000

Change in payables

5,000

Operating cash flow

60,000

Capital expenditures

(25,000)

Assets sold

5,000

Acquisitions

–

Investing cash flow

(20,000)

Debt borrowed

5,000

Debt principal payments

(20,000)

Dividends

(10,000)

Equity raised

–

Financing cash flow

(25,000)

23 of 100

The cash flow statement

23

Add the three sections together to get the net change in cash.

Indirect method

​

Profit

50,000

Depreciation

10,000

Change in receivables

(10,000)

Change in inventory

5,000

Change in payables

5,000

Operating cash flow

60,000

Capital expenditures

(25,000)

Assets sold

5,000

Acquisitions

–

Investing cash flow

(20,000)

Debt borrowed

5,000

Debt principal payments

(20,000)

Dividends

(10,000)

Equity raised

–

Financing cash flow

(25,000)

Change in cash

15,000

OPERATING + INVESTING + FINANCING

60,000 − 20,000 − 25,000

= $15,000 net change in cash

24 of 100

Sources & uses of cash

24

SOURCES: WHERE CASH COMES FROM

  • Customer collections · operating
  • Deposits and prepayments · operating
  • Sale of equipment or assets · investing
  • Loan proceeds / line of credit draws · financing
  • Owner contributions · financing

USES: WHERE CASH GOES

  • Payroll, rent, vendors, inventory · operating
  • Taxes and interest · operating
  • Equipment, vehicles, property · investing
  • Loan principal payments · financing
  • Owner distributions · financing

HABIT Review sources and uses in your monthly and annual financial review. Later, this becomes your monthly cash budget.

Every bank transaction is a source or a use in one of the three sections.

25 of 100

Sources & uses of cash

25

What's happening at this company?

  • Where did money come from?
  • Where did money go?
  • How did this company increase cash by $100k?

26 of 100

26

The cash flow statement is confusing.

​

Is there a better way to manage cash flow?

27 of 100

The big secret

27

Cash flow is hard

The business world wants you to believe you need specialized knowledge to have it.

28 of 100

Cash flow is hard

28

Are any of these businesses generating cash?

BUSINESS A

Cash receipts

$100

Payroll

($50)

Expenses

($35)

Cash flow

$15

BUSINESS B

Cash receipts

$100

Payroll

($75)

Expenses

($45)

Cash flow

($20)

BUSINESS C

Cash receipts

$100

Payroll

($75)

Expenses

($55)

Cash flow

($30)

29 of 100

Every business generates cash flow

29

Each business has $100 in cash receipts from customers.

BUSINESS A

Cash receipts

$100

Payroll

($50)

Expenses

($35)

Cash flow

$15

BUSINESS B

Cash receipts

$100

Payroll

($75)

Expenses

($45)

Cash flow

($20)

BUSINESS C

Cash receipts

$100

Payroll

($75)

Expenses

($55)

Cash flow

($30)

Yes… All three bring in $100, they just choose to spend it differently. Cash flow isn't hard to generate. It comes down to how you allocate it.

30 of 100

The big secret

30

Myth

Cash flow is hard

The business world wants you to believe you need specialized knowledge to have it.

Truth

Every business generates cash

Reframe your thinking. EVERY business generates cash flow (cash receipts from customers) and it comes down to how you spend it.

​

31 of 100

Direct method of cash flow

31

Start with cash receipts from customers, then subtract cash paid for operating activities.

  1. Start with cash receipts from customers
  2. Subtract cash expenses for operating activities
  3. Operating cash flow is the same whether you use the direct or indirect method

​

32 of 100

Direct vs. indirect

32

Operating cash flow is identical, just calculated differently. Non-operating cash flows are identical.

Operating cash flow is identical, but calculated differently

Non-operating cash flows are identical

33 of 100

Direct vs. indirect

33

Operating cash flow is identical, just calculated differently. Non-operating cash flows are identical.

Indirect method

​

Profit

50,000

Depreciation

10,000

Change in receivables

(10,000)

Change in inventory

5,000

Change in payables

5,000

​

​

Operating cash flow

60,000

Capital expenditures

(25,000)

Assets sold

5,000

Acquisitions

–

Investing cash flow

(20,000)

Debt borrowed

5,000

Debt principal payments

(20,000)

Dividends

(10,000)

Equity raised

–

Financing cash flow

(25,000)

Change in cash

15,000

Direct method

​

Cash receipts from customers

475,000

Cash paid for inventory

(202,000)

Cash paid to employees

(155,000)

Cash paid to suppliers

(37,000)

Interest paid

(9,000)

Taxes paid

(12,000)

Operating cash flow

60,000

Capital expenditures

(25,000)

Assets sold

5,000

Acquisitions

–

Investing cash flow

(20,000)

Debt borrowed

5,000

Debt principal payments

(20,000)

Dividends

(10,000)

Equity raised

–

Financing cash flow

(25,000)

Change in cash

15,000

34 of 100

Indirect vs. direct

34

Same operating cash flow. Two very different ways to get there.

Indirect method

What QuickBooks gives you

  • Starts with profit, then adjusts for timing
  • Reconciles profit to cash (helpful)
  • Hard to read and harder to use
  • Built for accountants

Direct method

Cash in minus cash out

  • Starts with customer receipts
  • Reads like your bank statement (intuitive)
  • Easy to forecast
  • Needs a second set of books (more effort)

35 of 100

35

How do we use this information?

36 of 100

36

The direct method

= bank balance accounting.

Every accountant has told you not to run your business from the bank balance. I'm giving you full permission, as long as you follow the rules.

37 of 100

The rules

37

1. It's a second set of books only

It never replaces your accounting system, your CPA, or your tax return.

2. It guides short-term cash planning

Use it alongside your monthly financial review, not instead of it.

3. It won't show profitability problems

Margins and overhead efficiency still come from your P&L and scorecard.

4. It won't show balance sheet problems

Working capital and debt levels still come from your balance sheet.

38 of 100

Managing cash flow

  • The weekly cash tracker (from the bank account)
  • The 13-week cash forecast, and how to build yours

38

39 of 100

A cadence for cash

39

30 min / week

Weekly cash flow

Categorize the week's actual inflows and outflows from the bank. Your 'cash P&L'.

Updated weekly

13-week forecast

Built on top of the tracker. Predicts the next quarter, week by week.

40 of 100

How it works

40

01 Download

Download transactions from ALL business bank accounts: checking, savings, money market. (No credit cards!)

02 Categorize

Pick 10 to 15 categories (expand as you grow). Sort by description, then categorize. Like items group themselves.

03 Review

Monthly view to compare against your P&L. Weekly view to see near-term patterns.

04 Forecast

Roll it forward 13 weeks.

41 of 100

Rules for categorizing

41

  • Goal = mini “cash P&L”
  • Keep it simple
  • When in doubt, use a placeholder or combine with another category
  • Let the frequency of transactions guide you
  • Tag each category operating or non-operating

A STARTER LIST

Category

Type

Customer collections & refunds

Operating

Payroll and payroll taxes

Operating

Materials and suppliers

Operating

Rent and utilities

Operating

Credit card payment

Operating

Other overhead

Operating

Loan payments

Non-operating

Equipment purchases

Non-operating

Owner distributions

Non-operating

Taxes

Non-operating

42 of 100

Sort & categorize

42

Example bank download, sorted by description.

Date

Description

Amount

Category

Type

10/01

ACH ADP PAYROLL

(24,812)

Payroll

Operating

10/01

ACH ADP TAX

(6,104)

Payroll

Operating

10/02

AMEX EPAYMENT

(15,200)

Credit card payment

Operating

10/02

DEPOSIT MOBILE

11,450

Customer collections

Operating

10/03

FERGUSON SUPPLY

(8,930)

Materials and suppliers

Operating

10/05

FIRST BANK LOAN PMT

(6,000)

Loan payments

Non-operating

10/05

ONLINE XFER TO OWNER

(7,000)

Owner distributions

Non-operating

10/06

STRIPE TRANSFER

9,876

Customer collections

Operating

Illustrative transactions. Vendor and bank names are examples only.

43 of 100

Monthly view: compare it to your P&L

43

Sample monthly view of a cash flow tracker.

​

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Sales

$97,000

$206,000

$378,000

$251,000

$259,000

$269,000

Insurance

-

(1,000)

-

-

(1,000)

(1,000)

CC

-

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

Software

-

(3,000)

(7,000)

(4,000)

(3,000)

(3,000)

G&A

(6,000)

(5,000)

(2,000)

(8,000)

(10,000)

(7,000)

Payroll

(30,000)

(47,000)

(48,000)

(74,000)

(51,000)

(105,000)

Adjuster

(50,000)

(142,000)

(122,000)

(169,000)

(121,000)

(64,000)

Operating

11,000

7,000

197,000

(5,000)

70,000

88,000

True up

-

-

136,000

-

-

-

Other Income

-

-

-

-

-

-

Legal

(14,000)

(7,000)

-

-

-

-

Loan Payment

(44,000)

(41,000)

(40,000)

(41,000)

(40,000)

(40,000)

Non-operating

(58,000)

(48,000)

95,000

(40,000)

(40,000)

(40,000)

Grand Total

(48,000)

(41,000)

292,000

(46,000)

29,000

48,000

44 of 100

Weekly view: patterns emerge

44

A weekly tracker is a mini cash P&L. After a few months, the rhythm of your business shows up.

​

8/10 - 8/16

8/17 - 8/23

8/24 - 8/30

8/31 - 9/6

9/7 - 9/13

9/14 - 9/20

9/21 - 9/27

9/28 - 10/2

Sales

$99,000

$50,000

$51,000

$99,000

$40,000

$33,000

$74,000

$41,000

Insurance

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

CC

-

-

-

-

-

-

(3,000)

(2,000)

Software

-

-

-

-

-

-

(3,000)

(3,000)

G&A

(4,000)

-

(2,000)

(2,000)

(3,000)

(1,000)

(2,000)

-

Adjuster

(39,000)

(2,000)

-

(38,000)

(1,000)

-

(30,000)

-

Payroll

-

(78,000)

-

-

-

-

(77,000)

-

Operating

56,000

(30,000)

49,000

59,000

36,000

32,000

(41,000)

36,000

Other Income

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Loan Payment

(7,000)

(34,000)

-

-

-

(7,000)

(33,000)

-

Non-operating

(7,000)

(34,000)

-

-

-

(7,000)

(33,000)

-

Grand Total

49,000

(64,000)

49,000

59,000

36,000

25,000

(74,000)

36,000

45 of 100

The daily cash report

45

A snapshot of cash balance, inflows and outflows in your inbox every morning.

WHAT IT CONTAINS

  • Beginning balance (yesterday's ending)
  • Deposits (cash inflows)
  • Payments (cash outflows)
  • Ending balance
  • Anything large or unexpected, flagged

WHY IT WORKS

You are never caught off guard by a low balance, you stay on the lookout for large items, and you build good cash habits.

46 of 100

The weekly cash tracker

46

Built straight from the bank account every week. Group similar cash flows to see inflows, outflows and ending cash.

​

Wk 1

Wk 2

Wk 3

A/R collections

31

24

29

Payroll, rent, vendors

(25)

(27)

(22)

Operating cash flow

6

(3)

7

Loan pmts · capex · distributions

–

(6)

(4)

Net cash flow

6

(9)

3

+ Beginning cash

52

58

49

= Ending cash

58

49

52

WHY IT MATTERS

  • Separates operating from non-operating cash: a clear view of the underlying business
  • Reveals your true weekly cash pattern (a cash P&L)
  • Fast, easy, simple
  • Becomes the input for the 13-week forecast

47 of 100

The weekly cash tracker

47

Four habits that turn bank data into a plan.

1

Tracking

  • Every week, track how much came in and how much went out

2

Categorize

  • Label where cash came from and went, using a few simple categories, and flag operating or non-operating

3

Patterns

  • After several weeks, patterns and recurring outflows appear

4

Planning

  • Then start planning 13 weeks into the future

48 of 100

Why does this work?

48

"This is extra work for me. Why should I bother?"

Fast

  • "Close" the books in 30 minutes

Easy

  • No accounting knowledge required

Simple

  • Work directly from the bank account. No books required.

RESULT This tool gives you a real-time view of cash flow in your business.

49 of 100

49

How do you build a weekly cash tracker?

50 of 100

Step-by-step instructions

50

Seven steps from bank download to action plan.

01

Download transactions from all business bank accounts

02

Add to Excel and clean up the data

03

Sort by transaction description

04

Categorize into 10 to 15 groups

05

Label as operating or non-operating

06

Add to the template

07

Action plan

51 of 100

Gather data

51

Steps 1 and 2.

1

Get transactions from all accounts

  • Include ALL business accounts (checking, savings, money market), not just the main operating account
  • Export as CSV or Excel (look under Activity, Statements or Export)
  • Pull the same date range for every account
  • Initial build: grab the last 52 weeks so you start with history

TIP Use full calendar weeks, Monday to Sunday.

2

Add to Excel and clean up the data

  • Paste everything into one Transactions tab
  • Standardize columns: Date, Description, Net Amount
  • Delete transfers between your own accounts. They're not real inflows or outflows
  • Remove duplicates and pending items; keep only cleared transactions

TIP If it didn't clear the bank, it doesn't belong in the tracker.

52 of 100

Download bank data

52

Find your bank transactions every week, then export them to categorize.

Find your bank transactions every week

Download / export to categorize and add

53 of 100

Simple categories

53

Steps 3 and 4.

3

Sort by transaction description

  • Sort A→Z on the Description column
  • Like items group together (payroll, rent, credit card payments)
  • Recurring vendors and expenses reveal themselves quickly
  • Categorize whole blocks at once instead of row by row

TIP Sorting turns an hour of tagging into ten minutes.

4

Categorize into 10 to 15 groups

  • Keep it simple: this is not a chart of accounts
  • Our recommendation: Sales, Payroll, Rent & Utilities, G&A, Loan Payment, Credit Card, Marketing, Professional Fees
  • Label each as operating or non-operating (loans, capex, distributions)

TIP Don't overthink categories. You can always expand later.

54 of 100

Export and sort

54

Sort by description so similar transactions sit together.

Group similar descriptions for easy categorizing

55 of 100

Categorize

55

Pick 10 to 15 categories of inflows and outflows.

SUGGESTED CATEGORIES

  • Sales
  • Payroll
  • Rent and utilities
  • Credit cards
  • Loan payments
  • G&A / overhead

RULE Let your most frequent transactions dictate the categories.

56 of 100

Group similar items

56

Categorize whole blocks of matching transactions at once.

57 of 100

Categorize and label operating vs. non-operating

57

VIDEO PLACEHOLDER

Walkthrough: categorizing transactions and flagging operating vs. non-operating

58 of 100

Summarize with a pivot table

58

VIDEO PLACEHOLDER

Walkthrough: building the pivot table

59 of 100

Weekly view of cash flow

59

VIDEO PLACEHOLDER

Walkthrough: the weekly view of cash flow

60 of 100

Analyze and plan

60

Steps 5 and 6.

5

Add to the template

  • Paste your categorized data into the cash tracker template
  • Each column is one week (Monday to Sunday)
  • Check every week: beginning + cash in − cash out = ending
  • Verify: ending cash must tie to the actual bank balance. If it doesn't, something is missing or double-counted

TIP The template makes patterns easy to spot.

6

Action plan

  • Put 30 minutes on the calendar to update and review the tracker
  • Each week: download → clean → categorize → paste → reconcile
  • After 4+ weeks, recurring weekly patterns emerge
  • Then extend it forward into the 13-week forecast

TIP Consistency matters. Update and review it every week.

61 of 100

Weekly cash tracker template

61

Historic weekly cash flows on the left, 13-week forecast on the right.

Historic weekly cash flows

13-week cash forecast

62 of 100

A finished weekly cash tracker

62

Placeholder: replace with the final example tracker.

63 of 100

63

What do you do with this tool?

64 of 100

The 13-week forecast (13WCF)

64

Purpose

Short-term cash planning

Anticipate all cash inflows & outflows over the next 13 weeks (3 months) to plan for potential shortfalls.

How it works

Built on top of weekly cash flow

  • Start with cash on hand
  • Add expected inflows
  • Subtract expected outflows
  • Calculate projected ending cash on hand

Why 13 weeks?

History repeats itself

  • One full quarter = far enough out to fix, short enough to be accurate
  • Your last few months are the best guide to your next 13 weeks.

65 of 100

What it answers

65

01

Can I make payroll next week? Next month?

02

Can I pay my next credit card bill in full?

03

Can I pay off this loan?

04

Can I take a distribution?

05

Can I sleep tonight knowing the business will make it?

66 of 100

How to build your 13WCF

66

01 Start

with your weekly tracker

02 Known items

Payroll dates, rent, loan payments, card due dates, insurance

03 Inflows

Average weekly inflows, apply growth rate to LY, use your A/R schedule

04 Other outflows

Planned equipment, distributions, taxes, bonuses

05 Beginning cash

Beginning cash + inflows - outflows = ending cash

06 Update weekly

Replace forecast with actuals, add a new week

Consistency beats accuracy. A forecast that's 90% right and updated every week beats a perfect one you never open.

67 of 100

67

Let's try it…

68 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

68

These are your weekly cash flows for the past 5 weeks. How would you forecast the next 4 weeks?

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

​

​

​

​

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

​

​

​

​

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

​

​

​

​

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

​

​

​

​

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

​

​

​

​

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

69 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

69

Inflows are consistent week to week. 5-week average = $15,162.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

​

​

​

​

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

​

​

​

​

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

​

​

​

​

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

​

​

​

​

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

70 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

70

Rent = $5,800, paid on the 1st of each month.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

​

​

​

​

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

​

​

​

​

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

​

​

​

​

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

71 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

71

The last 3 payrolls averaged $17,250, paid biweekly.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

​

​

​

​

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

​

​

​

​

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

72 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

72

Royalties are paid once a month, on the previous month's sales.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

​

​

​

​

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

73 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

73

The credit card bill averages $5,000 a month over the past year.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

​

​

​

​

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

74 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

74

Other overhead averages $1,000 a week over the past 5 weeks.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

​

​

​

​

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

75 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

75

Add up the forecast outflows for each week.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

(23,250)

(1,000)

(24,000)

(6,800)

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

76 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

76

Inflows minus outflows = operating cash flow.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

(23,250)

(1,000)

(24,000)

(6,800)

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

(8,088)

14,162

(8,838)

8,362

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

​

​

​

​

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

​

​

​

​

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

77 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

77

Loan payments = $1,875 on the 15th of each month. No expected line of credit draws.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

(23,250)

(1,000)

(24,000)

(6,800)

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

(8,088)

14,162

(8,838)

8,362

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

​

​

​

​

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

78 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

78

Operating cash flow less loan payments = net cash flow.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

(23,250)

(1,000)

(24,000)

(6,800)

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

(8,088)

14,162

(8,838)

8,362

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

(8,088)

12,287

(8,838)

8,362

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

​

​

​

​

FORECAST

ACTUAL

79 of 100

Let's try it: forecast the next 4 weeks

79

Roll the bank balance forward. Week 6 dips to $6,241: the low-water week.

​

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Cash inflows

14,820

15,340

14,960

15,580

15,110

15,162

15,162

15,162

15,162

Rent

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

–

–

–

(5,800)

Payroll

–

(17,094)

–

(17,538)

–

(17,250)

–

(17,250)

–

Royalties

–

–

–

(5,760)

–

–

–

(5,750)

–

Credit card

–

(4,494)

–

–

–

(5,000)

–

–

–

G&A

(493)

(650)

(1,279)

(640)

(1,933)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Cash outflows

(6,293)

(22,238)

(1,279)

(23,938)

(7,733)

(23,250)

(1,000)

(24,000)

(6,800)

Op. cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

(8,088)

14,162

(8,838)

8,362

Loan payments

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

–

(1,875)

–

–

LOC

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

Net cash flow

8,527

(6,898)

13,681

(8,358)

7,377

(8,088)

12,287

(8,838)

8,362

Bank balance

8,527

1,629

15,310

6,952

14,329

6,241

18,528

9,690

18,052

FORECAST

ACTUAL

80 of 100

What the forecast is & isn't

80

It is

  • An estimate of where things are headed
  • A short-term planning tool
  • Actual cash movements (the truth)
  • Extra work: a second set of books

It isn't

  • An accurate predictor of the future
  • A set of financial statements
  • A full, detailed budget
  • Meant to be 100% accurate

Your goal: live inside this document until you're comfortably generating enough cash every week.

81 of 100

81

How do you use this tool?

82 of 100

Scenario #1

82

What does the forecast tell you? Where is the problem?

83 of 100

Scenario #2

83

What changed? Look at the financing rows.

84 of 100

Scenario #3

84

Operating cash flow = $10,000. What does that mean for the plan?

85 of 100

Strategy & tactics

  • Goals for managing cash
  • Tactics and levers

85

86 of 100

86

"People calculate too much and think too little."

Charlie Munger

87 of 100

The most common cash flow problems

87

01

Not profitable

Operating below breakeven

02

Growing fast

Fueling growth with increased investments

03

Too much debt

Loan payments eating into cash flow

04

Taking too much out

Distributions bigger than cash flow supports

05

Timing

The #1 challenge in the short run

88 of 100

Five levers to manage cash

88

Every cash flow tactic pulls one of these.

01

Accelerate

Get paid faster

02

Increase

Get paid more

03

Eliminate

Pay less

04

Delay

Pay later

05

Unlock

One-time gain

Not every tactic permanently increases cash flow. Use the list as a cheat sheet when a situation calls for it.

89 of 100

Liquidity: layers you can tap

89

LAYER 1

Cash reserves

Find your minimum cash level and build to it. First line of defense and the cheapest.

LAYER 2

Backup financing

Line of credit, business credit cards. Open these before you need them.

LAYER 3

Emergency funds

Merchant advances, slow-paying vendors, owner injections. Expensive, last resort.

For startups and turnarounds, track cash runway: cash on hand / weekly net outflow.

90 of 100

Tactics by area

90

Revenue

  • Require deposits and progress billing
  • Invoice faster; call, don't just email
  • Small, regular price increases

Expenses

  • Hunt cost creep: cancel unused subscriptions
  • Renegotiate vendor price and terms
  • Freeze spending when the forecast says so

Working capital

  • Tighten terms; credit-check new customers
  • Order inventory closer to need
  • Batch bill pay to the 15th and 30th

Financing

  • Finance equipment instead of paying cash
  • Refinance or re-amortize expensive debt
  • Open a line of credit before you need it

91 of 100

Revenue tactics

91

Goal: get paid faster, and get paid more on each sale.

Invoicing and collections

  • Invoice more often; add early-pay incentives
  • Personalize collections: call, don't just email
  • Require deposits and signed contracts
  • Factor receivables when the need arises

Increase price

  • Regular, small price increases beat infrequent big ones
  • Dynamic pricing where the market allows

Increase volume

  • Upsells, cross-sells and pre-selling
  • Promotions, discounts and closeouts to pull demand forward
  • Sales commissions tied to collected cash

Other levers

  • Review the product catalog: cut or reduce slow movers
  • Credit-check new customers before extending terms
  • Add recurring revenue; offer customer financing (BNPL)

92 of 100

Expense tactics

92

Goal: reduce, eliminate or delay outflows.

STRUCTURAL

  • Expense cap / salary cap: solve for total expenses from a profit target
  • Team: raise productivity, outsource where it's cheaper
  • Downsize physical space to cut rent

HOUSEKEEPING

  • Hunt cost creep: cancel unused subscriptions
  • Review bank and credit card statements line by line
  • Freeze spending when the cash forecast requires it

VENDORS AND TIMING

  • Renegotiate price and terms, run RFPs, ask for discounts
  • Slow-pay: ask for an extension (or strategically don't ask)
  • Batch bill pay to the 15th and 30th
  • Take early-pay discounts when cash allows; use supply chain financing

93 of 100

Working capital tactics

93

Goal: less capital invested, and maximum conversion of profit to cash.

Receivables

Covered under revenue: invoicing, collections, deposits, terms.

Payables

Covered under expenses: vendor terms, slow-pay, batching.

Inventory

Catalog management, dynamic pricing, just-in-time ordering, dropship, consignment.

Prepaids

Move annual contracts to monthly or quarterly billing; cancel and take the pro-rata refund.

MEASURE IT

DSO

Days sales outstanding: how fast you collect

DPO

Days payables outstanding: how long you hold cash

DIH

Days inventory held: how long cash sits on shelves

CCC

Cash conversion cycle = DSO + DIH − DPO

94 of 100

Financing tactics

94

Goal: reduce risk and lower the monthly burden.

Manage debt

  • Consolidate and refinance high-cost debt
  • Re-amortize to lower the payment
  • Explore SBA programs

Assets

  • Sale-leaseback of property or equipment
  • Equipment financing instead of cash purchases

Equity

  • Outside investors
  • Partnerships and joint ventures

Divestitures

  • Sell non-core brands or product lines
  • Sell surplus property and equipment

RULE OF THUMB Cash Flow Index = loan balance ÷ monthly payment. Low index: pay it off or refinance it first.

95 of 100

Cash management = 4 goals + 5 levers

95

GOALS

  • Liquidity: plenty of cash in the bank
  • Growth: fund long-term goals
  • Convert: profit into cash, at a high rate
  • Unlock: one-time "spare cash" gains

LEVERS

  • Accelerate: get paid faster
  • Increase: get paid more
  • Eliminate: pay less
  • Delay: pay later
  • Unlock: one-time gain

96 of 100

Key takeaways

96

01

Profit isn't cash

Six drivers separate them. Growth is one of the biggest.

02

Use the direct method

Bank balance accounting, as long as you follow the rules.

03

Track weekly

30 minutes, straight from the bank.

04

Forecast 13 weeks

Feel the heat around the corner.

05

Pull the right lever

Accelerate, increase, eliminate, delay, unlock.

97 of 100

Thanks!

www.profitmastery.net

info@profitmastery.net

98 of 100

What's next?

98

Questions

Email us anytime for support or help: info@profitmastery.net

Get the materials

Use the QR code to download today’s slides and materials.

99 of 100

We Need Your Help

99

We’re a small business, too.

Leave us a review.

If you learned something new to improve your business, please leave us a review.

100 of 100

Today’s Event Survey