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Climate Change, Vulnerability and Development - Tanzania, Africa & Globally

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Learning Objectives

  • Understand the global climate crisis and its impacts across different regions.
  • Explore Africa's vulnerability to climate change despite contributing minimally to global emissions.
  • Examine Tanzania's key climate challenges and opportunities.
  • Analyze how climate shocks such as droughts, floods, and extreme weather affect livelihoods, food security, health, and household incomes.
  • Identify community-led solutions that strengthen resilience and improve livelihoods.

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What we Know

  • The Reality:
    • Climate change (CC )is real happening
    • Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred (IPCC, 2021).
  • CC remains a global challenge of our time with devastating global and local impacts

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Definitions of key Terms

Terms

Definition

Source

Climate

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Measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years. In a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system

WMO paraphrased in IPCC, 2018

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Global warming

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Increase in global surface temperature relative to a baseline reference period, averaging over a period sufficient to remove interannual variations (e.g., 20 or 30 years). A common choice for the baseline is 1850–1900

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IPCC, 2021

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Climate Change

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  • Change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.
  • It may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

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WMO paraphrased in IPCC, 2018 and 2021

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Definitions of key Terms

Terms

Definition

Source

Hazard

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The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources

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IPCC, 2021

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Risk

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  • The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences
  • The potential for adverse consequences where something of value is at stake and where the occurrence and degree of an outcome is uncertain. In the context of the assessment of climate impacts, the term risk is often used to refer to the potential for adverse consequences

ISDR, 2009/ IPCC, 2018

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Disaster

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  • Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery
  • A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources

IPCC, 2018/ISDR, 2009/UNGA, 2016

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Vulnerability

  • Vulnerability as a concept has long history and different field backgrounds
  • Thus, it carries different meanings according to use
  • The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard (ISDR, 2009).
  • Risk of exposure to hazards (e.g., settlements in flood prone areas),
  • As an attribute of places (e.g., vulnerability of coastlines to sea level rise).
  • In public health, susceptibility to diseases and outbreaks such as cholera, mosquito infestation leading to spread of malaria etc.

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Vulnerability

    • Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt
    • Various scholars agree that vulnerability is a function of three key elements: exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity
  • It is a function of the character, magnitude, frequency, duration and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007)
  • Exposure: what is at risk to climate change impacts.
    • It includes people, livelihood assets, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected. E.g. a coastal community within 10 km from the sea would be exposed to cyclones, rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion in aquifers

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Vulnerability

Sensitivity ; The degree to which a system is affected by climate variability and/or change. E.g. a coastal community would be more sensitive to cyclones if their livelihoods are dependent on sea-based tourism, or if there are no wind-resistant trees in their community space, or because they live in areas below the sea level.

  • It is the degree to which the system is affected by the exposure to risks. The concept is similar to immunity: if you don’t get the seasonal flu every time the weather changes (exposure), it means you are less sensitive to the changing weather. This is an internal characteristic of the system
  • E.g. a coastal community would be more sensitive to cyclones if their livelihoods are dependent on sea-based tourism, or if there are no wind-resistant trees in their community space, or because they live in areas below the sea level 

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Vulnerability

  • Adaptive capacity; This means the capacity/capability to adapt
  • The ability of a system to adjust to climate change, variability and extremes so as to
    • moderate potential damages,
    • take advantage of opportunities, or
    • cope with the consequences

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Adaptive capacity

  • It is a function of many attributes including:
    • Wealth
    • Technology, e.g. equipment for observation and quick response; early warring systems etc
    • Education, knowledge and awareness
    • Active and capable Institutions
    • Information provision and access
    • Infrastructure
    • Social capital
    • Governance etc.

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Vulnerability….

  • According to IPCC, 2012, vulnerability might be a result of various:
    • historical,
    • social,
    • economic,
    • political,
    • cultural,
    • institutional,
    • Lack of natural resource endowments and/or access, and
    • environmental conditions and processes

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Vulnerability….

  • A country/ a system (natural or social) community/ a household or an individual can be vulnerable.
  • Compare:
    • Developed vs developing countries;
    • SIDS/low lying coastal areas/countries vs others;
    • smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed cultivation vs mechanized/large scale farmers;
    • industrialized economies vs economies depending on export of raw produce etc.

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CC Impacts On Ecological and Social Systems

    • Highlight impacts of climate change in general
    • Look at the key impacts of CC on the ecological and social systems with examples from various sectors/thematic areas/regionally based context
  • Impacts refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system (IPCC, 2014).
  • Impacts may be referred to as consequences or outcomes, and can be adverse or beneficial

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CC Impacts On Ecological and Social Systems

  • Increase of surface temperature on aquatic environments
  • Sea level rise leading to inundation and coastal erosion
  • Increase and changes in temperature regimes on terrestrial environment
  • Changes in seasons and rainfall patterns
    • Rainfall amount
    • Rainfall distribution within seasons
    • Number of rain-days per season
    • Rainfall onset and cessation
    • Seasonal shifts/changes (e.g. from bi modal to unimodal)

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CC Impacts On Ecological and Social Sysyems

  • Freshwater -Changes in hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of both quantity and quality
  • Glaciers are shrinking hence affecting runoff and water resources downstream
  • Floods and droughts in many areas due to increased precipitation intensity and variability
  • Coastal Systems and Low-lying Areas- These areas are and will increasingly continue to experience negative impacts of climate change, such as:
    • submergence,
    • coastal flooding,
    • coastal erosion,
    • intrusion of sea water into fresh water aquifers,
    • infrastructure degradation etc.

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CC Impacts On Ecological and Social Systems

  • Marine Systems - Increasing temperature is having various changes in marines systems such as:
    • Shifts in the abundance, geographic distribution, migration patterns, and timing of seasonal activities of marine species
    • Reduction in maximum body sizes for some species
    • Changing interactions between species, including competition and predator-prey dynamics.
  • For example, many fishes, invertebrates, and phytoplankton have shifted their distribution and/or abundance polar-ward and/or to deeper, cooler waters as a result of temperature increase (IPCC, 2014).
  • Food Security and Food Production Systems - Climate change (i.e. temperature regimes, increase in CO2 and rainfall patterns) has and continues to negatively affect production of various food crops
  • Changes in climate and CO2 concentration will increase distribution and competitiveness of invasive species

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CC Impacts On Ecological and Social Systems

  • Human Health - Changes in temperature and precipitation; and extremes such as heat waves, floods and droughts exacerbate vulnerability to other diseases related to water, air, malnutrition, food insecurity etc.
  • Climate change-related ecological disruptions such as crop failures, shifting patterns of disease vectors, displacement of populations as a result of prolonged droughts or excessive floods etc., have a bearing on human health

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CC Impacts On Ecological and Social Systems

  • Livelihoods and Poverty - It is well known that poverty in developing countries, particularly in Africa, is an inherent stress
  • It combines with poor access to better health services, poor access to quality education, diseases, hunger, food insecurity, water stress, internal conflicts as well as poor governance and democratic barriers to reduce adaptive capacity
  • Climate-related hazards exacerbate the severity of almost all these stressors, often with negative outcomes for livelihoods
  • Climate related hazards affect poor people’s lives through impacts on livelihoods, reductions in crop yields and destruction of homes
  • The hazards can affect them indirectly through, for example, increased food prices and food insecurity

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Key Climate Challenges and Opportunities in Tanzania

  • Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns
  • Droughts and water scarcity
  • Flooding and extreme weather events�Intense rainfall events increasingly lead to floods, especially in urban areas and coastal regions.
  • Sea-level rise and coastal erosion
  • Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation�Climate change contributes to habitat changes that affect forests, wildlife, wetlands, and marine ecosystems.

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Opportunities in Tanzania

  • Renewable energy development�Strong potential for renewable energy sources including solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal energy.
  • Blue economy and coastal management -marine resources, mangrove restoration, and coastal ecosystem protection
  • Green jobs and youth participation
  • Climate finance and international partnerships- climate funds, development partnerships, and international initiatives that support adaptation and mitigation projects. �

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Thank You