Arizona Climate: Current Conditions and What Lies Ahead��

Mike Crimmins

Professor & Extension Specialist

Dept. of Environmental Science &

Cooperative Extension

The University of Arizona

Precipitation – last 12 months

https://wrcc.dri.edu/my/wwdt

Temperature – last 12 months

https://wrcc.dri.edu/my/wwdt

Water Year 2024-2025

(Oct 2024-Sep 2025)

https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/index.html

https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/index.html

Monsoon 2025

(June-Sept 2025)

Monsoon 2025 (June-Sept)

https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html

https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html

https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html

Monsoon 2025 (June-Sept)

https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html

https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/index.html

Current Water Year

(Oct 2025 – Present)

Precipitation – last 6 months

https://climatetoolbox.org/tool/climate-mapper

Temperature – last 6 months

https://climatetoolbox.org/tool/climate-mapper

Temperature Rankings (Oct-March)

https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?region=wrcc#

https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/AZdrought/

180-day Standardized Precipitation Index Values

(drought index based on total precipitation)

https://www.drought.gov/topics/snow-drought

Fire Danger

Climate Outlooks

8-14 day Temp and Precip Outlooks

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Weeks 3-4 Temp and Precip Outlooks

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Looking Ahead - Precipitation

Summer 2026 🡪

Looking Ahead - Temperature

Summer 2025 🡪

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

• https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

ENSO Outlooks

• Strong El Niño developing and will likely impact upcoming monsoon
• Expected to peak next fall and bring increased chance of above-average precipitation to Southwest

NOAA National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME)

Apr-May-Jun

Precip Anom

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

July-Aug-Sep

Precip Anom

Past El Nino events and SW Monsoon Precipitation

2015

2023

Closing Points

• Highly variable year: warm/dry winter (2025) → cool/wet spring → hot/dry monsoon → wet fall → record warm, erratic winter/spring (2026)
• Current conditions: record warmth, very low snowpack, rising fire risk
• Shift underway: La Niña has ended; strong El Niño developing (peaking summer–fall)
• Outlook: Possible return to wetter conditions this spring–early summer (uncertain); wetter pattern more likely next fall/winter with El Niño

Resources

• Monthly Climate Reports (different land management areas across SW US): https://cales.arizona.edu/climatereports/
• Southwest Climate Outlook: https://www.climas.arizona.edu/swco
• Southwest Climate Podcast: https://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcasts
• Climate Science Applications Program: https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/

​

Thanks!

crimmins@arizona.edu

http://cals.arizona.edu/climate