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Fundamental Theorem of Poker

Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.

Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

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David Sklansky, 1987

Three Types of Bets

(In decreasing order of importance)

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1. Value bet
2. Semibluff
3. Bluff

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Bread & Butter: The Value Bet

skip to 2:40

The (oft neglected) Semibluff

The coolest bet of all: The Bluff

Skip to 1:50

Odds of Winning

Pot Equity

The pot is $100. What is each player’s equity?

Pot Odds

Opponent is ALL-IN for $100.

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Suppose there is $100 in the pot. Do you call?

Pot Odds

Opponent is ALL-IN for $100.

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Suppose there is $100 in the pot. Do you call?

$100 (the current pot) +

$100 (his bet) +

$100 (your call) = $300

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$300 * 0.403 = $120.90

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The estimated value (EV) of calling is +$20.90

Pot Odds

Opponent is ALL-IN for $200.

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Suppose there is $100 in the pot. Do you call?

Pot Odds

Opponent is ALL-IN for $200.

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Suppose there is $100 in the pot. Do you call?

$100 (the current pot) +

$200 (his bet) +

$200 (your call) = $500

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$500 * 0.403 = $201.50

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A 2x pot bet is the breakeven point.

Betting Strategies

Vanessa Selbst

Daniel Negreanu

POT

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$100

Bets: $100? $200? $10000?

Calls?

Explore

Vanessa has the best hand half of the time. She will always bet when she has the best hand, but how often should she bluff?

Nash Equilibrium in Stochastic Games

In any finite game there exists at least one equilibrium pair of mixed strategies.

Implied Odds

Pot size:

$100

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Opponent bets:

$300

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Opponent’s stack:

$900

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The pot might get a lot bigger if you do hit your hand!

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Position & Reverse implied odds

Starting Hand Ranges

Position

Early: 5-15%

Middle: 15-25%

Late: 25-40%

Blinds: 40-60%

Game Tree

Practical Poker

Lesson one: Fold more.

Practical Poker - Technique

• Position is paramount. Don’t call without it.

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• Be aggressive. If you have the best hand, bet enough that your opponent will make a mistake calling on a weak draw.

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• Balance your play: play big draws like big made hands, and weak draws like weak hands (semibluff!)

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• Try to make the pot bigger when you have a big hand, and keep the pot small with a weak one.

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• Only make exploitive plays when you are very confident they will work. Pure bluffs are usually bad.

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• Do everything for an explicit reason. Bad reasoning is better than no reasoning!

Swings (variance)

Practical Poker - Emotions

• Understand what’s in your control (your actions), and accept what’s not (the results).

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• Inwardly analyze an unwanted emotional response. There are often underlying insecurities or frustrations that need to be addressed before the response can disappear!

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• Change perspectives; “zoom out”

Practical Poker - Focus

• Only play when in the mood
• Find ways to get into the right mood!
• Exercise
• Slow down: Stop. Think.
• Meditation?

Questions