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Observing Break-up for Fun, Education, Science, and Society

+ Data Ice Jam

Koyukuk River at Allakaket on May 7^th, 2020

(David Fields)

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Fish Creek near Nuiqsut on June 8^th, 2010

(Chris Arp)

Learning Goals

Why break-up matters for your community

Predicting break-up on lakes & rivers

Observing and documenting break-up in your community

Having fun observing and predicting break-up

Ice (data) Jam Predictions from your Measurements

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Ice Jam Flood Galena - 2013

NWS Photo (Ed Plumb)

Reasons why break-up matters to Northern Communities

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Spring Breakup Outlook

https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/FGAK78PACR

AWRA Seminar noon April 14^th Crane Johnson – NWS flood outlook

https://mbakermeet.webex.com/mbakermeet/j.php?MTID=mbd90d84a189f60206cdf5375d729010b

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Predicting timing of ice-out on lakes (comparison of lakes on North Slope)

Weather Drivers

air temperature

sunny vs. cloudy days

wind

Lake & Landscape

Controls

lake area

depth relative to ice thickness

shoreline irregularity

watershed area / river inflow & connections

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Basic Ice Jam Diagram

Lindenschmidt 2020

Predicting Timing and Type of Break-up on Rivers

Mechanical Breakup Conditions

cold winter, thick ice, big snowpack
rapid warm-up and snowmelt
ice fractures and jams, causing backwater flooding
upstream-to-downstream progression

Thermal Breakup Conditions

warm winter, thin ice, low snowpack
slow warm-up
ice cover melts in place
“patchy” intermittent progression

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tqo_HlRvJk

Fresh Eyes on Ice Kuskokwim River Cam: May 6^th, 2020

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When will ice-out (<10% ice cover) on your community monitoring lake?

20 to 40 days after average air temps rise above freezing

Large or small lake?

Deeper or shallower than maximum ice thickness?

Shape of lake (circular or long / irregular shoreline)?�
Stream, river, or other inflow?

When and how will break-up happen on your community river?

10 to 30 days after average air temps rise above freezing

Large downstream or small upstream river?

Snowpack depth and melt rate

Ice thickness

other factors?

How do past observations, experiences, & stories influence your predictions?

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Ways to monitor ice melt and break-up progression on your lake or river

Satellites

Sentinel Playground:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/

Aircraft (regular flight paths or targeted surveys)

Koyukuk NWR photo

Time-lapse Cameras

Shoreside Repeat Photos

https://obs.feoi.axds.co/observations/new

https://www.facebook.com/groups/fresheyesonice

Drone / UAS Surveys

Written records, notes, & pictures!

Start of snowmelt, first ice decay, to ice free lake or river
Regular visits or observations (before & after class, mid-day hike)
Multiple perspective (upstream, downstream, across)
Location, time, weather, & ice appearance or motion

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All observations are useful and insightful, particularly ones you save and share!

Start of snowmelt, first ice decay, through to ice-free (open-water) lake or river

Regular visits or observations (before & after class, mid-day hike)

Multiple perspectives (upstream, downstream, across)

Location, time, weather, & ice appearance or motion

Condition relative to human activities & water travel

How to make ice melt / break-up observations

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https://www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupform

https://obs.feoi.axds.co/observations/new

Ways to Save and Share your Observations

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Having Fun with Break-up Observations: Do your own Ice Classic with Class & Community!

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Ice (data) Jam:

Comparing your Ice Records & Predicting Maximum Ice Thickness & Ice-out

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Putting Your Awesome Data & Our Simple Model to the Test

in an Ice Data Jam Format

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Has maximum ice thickness been reached in your community?

Will new observations be closer to predicted values?

Why are these predictions right or wrong?

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Another way to look at these data.

Why are most predictions greater than observations?

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Ice thickness on Standard Dates through the Winter Estimated from Your Data and Closest Available Temperature & Snow Data.

Who wants to measure ice on Halloween or New Year’s?