2025-2026 RESOLUTION��THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ITS EXPLORATION AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC.
AGENDA
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1. THE ARCTIC TOPIC� - TOPIC RESOURCES� - MINING FOR EVIDENCE� - WHAT IS THE ARCTIC
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EVIDENCE MINING FOR THE TOPIC
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Topic paper was originally directed toward action by the Arctic Council
(https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:2926c325-4f15-4dcd-8ad7-0f29d24c2b05)
- modified with development and exploration (no discussion in the topic paper)
Back file mining
Topics to review
- 2014-2015 high school Oceans topic
- 2022-2023 high school NATO topic
- 2016-2017 college climate topic
Files to review
- Russia files from NATO topic
- China files
- Heg/hardpower
- Security K
- Set Col K
WHAT IS THE ARCTIC?
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Geographically – area north of arctic circle (24 hours daylight and 24 hours of darkness during solstices)
Politically 8 Arctic nations, mostly Russia (50%)
ARCTIC NATION STATES
Direct contact with the Arctic
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INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
- alliance originally set up to contain the Soviet Union now Russia
- all Arctic members of NATO (Sweden and Finland joined after Ukraine invasion
- military exercises conducted periodically in the Arctic
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INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
Arctic Council
- Chair rotates (now Denmark/Greenland)
Six working groups (monitoring, emergency response, protection of marine environment, contamination, flora and fauna, sustainable development)
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OTHER ACTORS
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China
- investments in NSR, energy infrastructure
India
- sea routes
- resources
- scientific research
Indigenous Peoples in Alaska (Aleut, Alutiiq, Yup’ik, Iñupiaq (Northwest Alaskan Inuit), Athabaskan, Tlingit and Haida)
- cultural preservation
- climate change effects
RESOURCES IN THE ARCTIC
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Oil and gas
- up to 25 percent of unexplored oil and gas reserves.
Rare Earth Minerals
- generous deposits of rare-earth elements, from neodymium and praseodymium to terbium and dysprosium
- home to significant volumes of other valuable natural resources (metals, minerals, precious stones)
Fishing
- commercial harvest of groundfish, shellfish, salmon, and other resources in Alaska constitute more than 60 percent of marine fish landings in the United States
RELEVANT TREATIES
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Law of the Sea (a.k.a. UNCLOS, LOST)
- most nations are signatories (but not the US)
- governs maritime boundaries (e.g., EEZ), outer continental shelf (right to harvest mineral and non-living material in the subsoil of their continental shelf)
Central Arctic Ocean fisheries agreement
- 16 year ban on fishing in Central Arctic Ocean (CAO)
- Signatories include Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, the United States, China
Arctic Search and Rescue (ASAR) Agreement
Outer Space Treaty
2. SIGNIFICANT ACTORS IN THE ARCTIC��
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UNITED STATES ARCTIC POLICY
Policy Goals
- security (early warning from nuclear attack)
- economic
-navigation
- oil
- environment (security)
- indigenous culture
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UNITED STATES ARCTIC POLICY- ACTORS
Dept. of State (DOS)
Dept. of Defense (DOD)
-bases (Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska, the US naval air station at Keflavík in Iceland, the Pituffik space base in Greenland, the Bodø air station in Norway, and the US theater missile defense systems in Northeast Asia)
DoD Arctic Strategy and Global Resilience Office
- early warning network
- US Navy
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UNITED STATES ARCTIC POLICY- ACTORS
Dept. of the Interior (land management oil leases)
National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) (Dept. of Commerce)
- satellite observation
Dept. of Homeland Security
- Coast Guard (CG)
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UNITED STATES OFFICIAL ARCTIC POLICY
History of Arctic policy
1984 -Arctic Research And Policy Act (ARPA)
2009 - National Security and Presidential Directive
2022- National Strategy For the Arctic (security, climate change/protection, sustainable development, and international governance)
2024 – DOD Arctic Strategy policy (repeat of goals)
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UNITED STATES ARCTIC POLICY GOALS UNDER TRUMP
Trump policy shift
- America First
- transactional, bilateral, and resource-driven (unilateral strategic acquisition) – shift away from cooperative governance
- Russia (potential cooperation, strategy against China)
(https://thegeopolitics.com/polar-realignment-trump-putin-and-the-future-of-arctic-power-politics/)
- minimize resources directed toward climate and environment goals
- Greenland takeover???
- Canada takeover
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WHAT IS THE ARTIC (ALASKA)?
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Alaska
National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) – Federal land
Alaska National Wildlife Preserve (ANWR) – Federal land
Prudhoe Bay- 8% of America’s domestic oil.
RUSSIAN ARCTIC POLICY
History
- fear of invasion (chip on shoulder)
- warm water ports
- oscillating attitudes toward the west
- traditional rival with China
Arctic is a top priority
(https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-2023-russian-foreign-policy-concept/)
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RUSSIAN ARCTIC POLICY
Arctic Policy 2035 (policy objectives)
• To ensure Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• To preserve the Arctic as a world territory, with stable and mutually beneficial partnerships.
• To guarantee high living standards and prosperity for people of the Russian Arctic zone.
• To develop the Russian Arctic as a strategic resource base and its rational use to accelerate national economic growth.
• To develop the NSR as a competitive national transport line of the Russian Federation in the global market.
• To protect the Arctic environment, the primordial homeland, and the traditional way of life of the indigenous minorities in the Russian Arctic
(https://www.ni-u.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/NIUShort_07212020_DNI202201735_IceRusha.pdf)
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RUSSIAN ARCTIC POLICY – CHINA AND THE WEST
China
The West
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RUSSIAN POLICY
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NATO POLICY
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CHINA
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China
Sea Route (NSR) to avoid shipping through Mid East.
INDIA
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India
3. TOPIC DEFINITIONS, ITS, DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLORATION
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WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT
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Development is distinct from economic growth strategies
MSS Research 2010
MSS Research is the social science research division of The Mother's Service Society, a non-profit organization established in Pondicherry, India in 1970. 2010 “Indicators of Economic Progress: The Power of Measurement and Human Welfare” http://www.mssresearch.org/?q=node/626
The term development is commonly used as a catch-all phrase for something that includes, but extends beyond considerations of economic growth. Socio-economic development is frequently used as a proxy for per capita economic growth measured in real terms. Sometimes it is used with reference to the economic welfare of citizens; sometimes more broadly to include non-economic factors such as health, education, life expectancy, social inclusion, gender equity, social cohesion, freedom, democratic participation and good governance; and at others with reference to national investments in infrastructure, education, science and technology, energy and other fields deemed essential for national progress. In contrast to this vague general usage, we would argue for making a clear and emphatic distinction between growth and development. Growth represents a horizontal quantitative expansion of existing capacities and activities in society; whereas development involves a qualitative enhancement in the structural capabilities of society, an increasing capacity for organization, coordination, and complexity. Growth may be regarded primarily as an economic concept, but development in any field belongs to the wider realm of society as a whole. Growth generates more of the same on a larger scale. Development generates something new and better that was not possible earlier. Development relates to enhancement of social productivity through strategies such as investments in human capital by education and training, enhancement of social capital and organizational capabilities — with regard to governance, production, commerce, research, social welfare, etc. — technological advancement, greater access to information, and networking between individuals and institutions
WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT
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Development is activity relating to the exploitation of resources. Exploration refers to any activity related to the identification or evaluation of resource deposits.
U.S. Code ’90 [16 U.S. Code § 2462; June 28; Legal Information Institute, “Definition: development from 16 USC § 2462(4),” “ANTARCTIC MINERAL RESOURCES PROTECTION” https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/uscode.php]
(3)The term “development” means any activity, including logistic support, which takes place following exploration, the purpose of which is the exploitation of specific mineral resource deposits, including processing, storage, and transport activities.
(4) The term “exploration” means any activity, including logistic support, the purpose of which is the identification or evaluation of specific mineral resource deposits. The term includes exploratory drilling, dredging, and other surface or subsurface excavations required to determine the nature and size of mineral resource deposits and the feasibility of their development.
WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT
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Development increases well being
Peck & Phillips, n.d. – *Director of David Cameron’s Quality of Life Policy Group AND **President & CEO, Edelman, the world's largest Public Relations firm
[Jules & Robert, “Growth vs Development” Citizen Renaissance, http://www.citizenrenaissance.com/the-book/part-three-where-are-we-heading/chapter-seven-the-rise-of-ecological-economics/growth-vs-development//]//SG
Leading American economist Herman Daly illustrates the fundamental difference between growth and development by these definitions:¶ Growth – the quantitative increase in size or throughput of biophysical matter. Daly has argued economic growth is based on the “limitless transformation of natural capital into man-made capital”.¶ Development – the qualitative improvement in economic welfare from increased quality of goods and services as defined by their ability to increase human well-being. This infers promoting increased economic activity only insofar as it does not exceed the capacity of the ecosystem to sustain it.
WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT – DISTINCT FROM SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT???
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Sustainable development is distinct from resolutional development –
Leeds City Council ‘12
(Leeds City council, “What is Sustainable Development?” June 28, 2012, http://www.leeds.gov.uk/docs/What%20is%20sustainable%20development.pdf)
The various definitions of sustainable development tend to agree that it has the following key ¶ characteristics that distinguish if from conventional development: ¶ • sustainable development is concerned with the achievement of social, economic and ¶ environmental objectives at the same time, rather than a process of trading ¶ advantages in one sphere against losses in another. It is about integrating objectives ¶ rather than balancing them; ¶ • sustainable development recognises the impacts that decisions taken locally will have ¶ globally; ¶ • sustainable development recognises the impacts that decisions taken now will have ¶ on generations in the future; ¶ • sustainable development places a high emphasis on participation by the public in ¶ decisions that affect them. ¶ ¶ Sustainable development is a sophisticated concept that challenges conventional schools of ¶ thought and recognises the reality that quality of life depends on economic, social and ¶ environmental improvement at the same time, not at the expense of each other. Finding ¶ solutions that achieve this ‘win-win-win’ outcome is not straightforward and requires an ¶ approach that challenges existing methodologies and changes the way that things are done ¶ at present.
WHAT IS EXPLORATION
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Exploration is creating surface disturbance
Code of Federal Regulations 13 (43 CFR 3809.5: Definitions, current as of 2013, From Title 43 Public Lands: Interior, Subtitle B Regulations Relating to Public Lands,
http://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/43/3809.5)
Exploration means creating surface disturbance greater than casual use that includes sampling, drilling, or developing surface or underground workings to evaluate the type, extent, quantity, or quality of mineral values present. Exploration does not include activities where material is extracted for commercial use or sale.
WHAT IS EXPLORATION
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Exploration is systematic search and discovery – distinct from research, surveys, and hypothesis driven investigation
NOAA 12 – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
[NOAA, “Ocean¶ Exploration’s¶ Second Decade,” NOAA, http://www.sab.noaa.gov/Meetings/2012/november/OE_Review_Report_Final.pdf]//SG
The present Panel affirms the brief definition of exploration of the 2000 Panel: ¶ Exploration is the systematic search and investigation for the initial purpose of ¶ discovery and the more elaborated definition of the US Navy: Systematic examination ¶ for the purposes of discovery; cataloging/documenting what one finds; boldly going ¶ where no one has gone before; providing an initial knowledge base for hypothesis-based ¶ science and for exploitation. ¶ The Panel affirms that Ocean Exploration is distinct from comprehensive surveys (such ¶ as those carried out by NAVOCEANO and NOAA Corps) and at-sea research (sponsored by National Science Foundation, ¶ Office of Naval Research, and other agencies), including hypothesis-driven investigations aimed at the ocean bottom, ¶ artifacts, water column, and marine life.¶
WHAT IS EXPLORATION
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Exploration is Observation
US Committee on Science 03 (Summary of Activities of the Committee on Science US House of Representatives For the One Hundred Seventh Congress, January 2, 2003 http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-107hrpt809/pdf/CRPT-107hrpt809.pdf)
Ocean exploration is defined as the systematic observation of all facets of the ocean in the three dimensions of space and the fourth dimension of time. Ocean exploration leads to un- predictable rewards; possibilities include cures for diseases, discovery of untapped mineral, energy, and biological resources, insights into ocean system functions, and beautiful geological and biological vistas.
WHAT IS EXPLORATION
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Arctic Ocean exploration – Laundry list
NOAA 01 (National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, January 2001, “A New Era of Ocean Exploration” http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/websites/retiredsites/oceanpanel.pdf)
Navy proposes the following topical areas as suitable for
National commitments and interagency efforts in ocean
exploration:
• Seafloor exploration & mapping (e.g., Neptune, GOMaP)
• Hyperspectral sensing from space
• Long-time series in U.S. waters as part of an integrated ocean observing system (OCEAN.US)
• Cooperative coastal efforts with other nations
• Inventories of marine life (e.g. a census of marine mammals)
• Inventories of polar ice caps
• Marine archaeology
WHAT IS EXPLORATION
Exploration and Research are distinct
Auster 01 Department of Marine Sciences Northeast Underwater Research Technology & Education Center University of Connecticut (Peter, Marine Biologist Joins New Federal Ocean Exploration Program,
http://advance.uconn.edu/2001/010904/01090408.htm)
Marine biologist Peter Auster is going on a mission into inner space. He is one of three scientists leading the first cruise of a new formal ocean exploration program funded by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. For more than four decades, the U.S. has spent billions of dollars on space exploration and only a small fraction of that kind of money on the ocean. That may be changing. Last fall, a panel of nationally renowned scientists, commissioned by President Clinton, recommended that a federal ocean exploration program be established. On Sept. 9, Auster, the science director of the National Undersea Research Center at UConn's Avery Point campus, and scientists from the University of Maine and the College of Charleston, begin the first leg of this underwater journey called Deep East 2001. The three National Undersea Research Centers located at east coast universities, including UConn, are organizing three voyages this fall that will involve a dozen scientists from a variety of institutions and organizations. Auster and his group will dive in the submarine canyons of Georges Bank, and on Bear and Physalia Seamounts (underwater mountains). That will put them about 180 to 200 miles off the New England coast and a little less than a mile below the surface. Because of the depths, they will be using Alvin, the only manned submersible the U.S. owns that is capable of going that deep. "This is formalizing the scientific exploration of the ocean the National Undersea Research Program has been conducting for years," Auster says. "We are not going out just to see what is there, but to systematically observe a part of the world where few, if any, have been before, and we will use that information to generate new questions about how the world works." Auster says there is a key difference between exploration and research. Whereas research starts with a question and is carefully crafted into a hypothesis for testing, exploration is about making the kind of primary observations that generate those original questions, he says. And there are plenty of observations to be made, as 95 percent of the oceans have yet to be investigated.
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WHAT IS ITS
what if anything is direct development
does facilitating development count
- How does the USFG explore???
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3. ADVANTAGE AREAS
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SECURITY
US/Russia War
Causes
Impact – nuclear exchange
(https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/up-north-confronting-arctic-insecurity-implications-for-the-united-states-and-nato/)
(https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/rising-tensions-shifting-strategies-evolving-dynamics-us-grand-strategy-arctic/)
Cooperation advantages – Arctic may be a cooperation opportunity
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SECURITY
US/China War
- accidental clash
- resource competition
- impact – nuclear war
US Hegemony
- Impacts – conflict resolution, economic stability
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SEA ROUTES
Climate change opens up Arctic sea routes
Northern Sea Route (NSR)
Northwest Passage (NWP)
Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) (2050)
transporting goods from Europe to the Far East via the NSR could be 25 percent more profitable than the Suez Canal Route
Impacts- economic collapse, Trade good, Naval Heg
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RARE EARTH RESOURCES
Essential for the manufacturing of high-tech products like batteries, semiconductors, magnets, and catalysts.
United States heavily relies on critical materials to drive innovation
- Competitiveness (integrated circuits)
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CLIMATE
Positive feedbacks in Arctic
- sea ice reflection/heat absorption
- CO2 exposure ocean
acidification
Methane effects
"Arctic methane bomb“
Biodiversity
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DISEASES
Frozen microbes will be released from permafrost melt
Pandemics
Potential bio tech
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INDIGENOUS PEOPLES
US tribes
- climate change affecting culture
- indigenous knowledge on ecosystem management
- development also may threaten culture
(https://www.arcticwwf.org/newsroom/features/arctic-connected-the-arctics-indigenous-communities-under-threat/)
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OIL (ENVIRONMENTAL)
Oil Leasing/drilling/offshore
Shipping issues (tankers)
- oil spills are magnified
- biodiversity loss
Drilling issues
- ecosystem effects
Oil pipelines
Climate/biodiversity (CO2)
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OIL (GEO-POLITICAL)
Middle East Conflict
Russian Conflict
- economic impact
- geo political
Economic impacts
- third world development
- China
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4. AFFIRMATIVES
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ARCTIC DOMAIN AWARENESS (NDCA, UM)
Plan Text: The United States federal government should increase its deployment of domain awareness technology, including early warning radars, uncrewed aerial and underwater vehicles, and satellites, in the Arctic.
- domain awareness is key to anticipating current threats and predicting future ones in the Arctic.
Advantages
- prevent miscalc and accidents
- International cooperation to maintain the liberal order
- climate monitoring
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SPACE (CDL, GDS)
Plan: Plan: The United States federal government should significantly increase funding for space-based operations in the Arctic.
Advantages
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GEO-ENGINEERING (CDL, UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should significantly increase its development of geoengineering pilot projects in the Arctic.
Plan: The United States federal government should develop and deploy Marine Cloud Brightening technology in the Arctic
Use geo-engineering to protect sea ice
Advantages
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US RUSSIA COOPERATION (NDCA, UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should significantly increase its scientific exploration of permafrost in the Russian Arctic under the auspices of the Agreement on Enhancing International Arctic Scientific Cooperation.
Plan: The United States federal government should significantly increase its scientific exploration of permafrost in the Russian Arctic under the auspices of the Agreement on Enhancing International Arctic Scientific Cooperation.
Plan: The U.S. should restore scientific cooperation programs with Russia and/or China in the Arctic.
Cooperation at different levels in the Arctic with Russia or China
Advantages
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US RUSSIA LNG (NFS, NDCA)
Plan: The U.S. should significantly increase offshore oil and natural gas drilling in the Arctic.
Advantages
- Avoid oil conflicts
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INDIGENOUS CLIMATE ADAPTION (NFS, NDCA, UM, WAKE)
Example Plan: The United States federal government, through the Denali Commission, should increase collaborative climate adaption infrastructure development to Native Alaskan Arctic communities.
Plan: The U.S. should develop wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects in the Arctic to provide sustainable power for Arctic communities.
Advantages
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ICE BREAKERS (UM, GDS, EMORY)
Plan The United States federal government should increase its development of the Arctic through the deployment of nuclear-powered icebreakers
Icebreakers critical for Arctic sea lanes
- shipping/trade
- security/shipbuilding
- oil spill cleanup
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US INDIA COOPERATION (UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should significantly increase its scientific exploration research with the Republic of India in the Arctic.
Advantages
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COAST GUARD (UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should conduct exploration and/or development of the Arctic with Russia under the Arctic Coast Guard Forum.
Quasi-military organization under Dept. of Homeland Security
Ocean safety (oil spills)
US influence, conflicts, fish wars
Sea lane control
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INFRASTRUCTURE/MILITARY BASES (UM)
Plan: United States federal government should significantly increase its development of logistical infrastructure in the Alaskan Arctic. The
Plan: United States federal government should significantly increase its development of the Arctic by building military bases along topical trade routes.
Advantages
-oil development prevent oil prices
- security – deterrence using Arctic military units
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TRIBES LAND TRUST (UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should increase its development of Native land trusts in Alaska.
Advantages
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FLOATING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS (UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should significantly increase its development of the Arctic by deploying Floating Nuclear Power Plants.
Advantages
- Prevent pollution from other
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SMALL MODULAR REACTORS (SMRS) (UM)
Plan: ??? Deployment of small modular reactors (SMR)s in the Arctic
Advantages
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GREENLAND MINERALS (UM)
Plan: The United States federal government should increase its Arctic development and exploration of minerals in Greenland
Advantages
- Minerals
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REMOTE MONITORING
Develop uncrewed vehicles for Artic exploration
security (early warning)
resource exploitation
sea lane monitoring
prevent miscalc
hegemony (tech)
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U.S. NAVY
Strengthening Naval forces in the Arctic
- readiness
- Arctic operations (hardening)
- anti-submarine warfare (ASW)
Advantages
US Hegemony
- SLOCs
- deter Russia/China
- increase in Russian naval access
Economic- protect trade
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ARCTIC CODE OF CONDUCT
Propose Military Code of Conduct in Arctic
(https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/up-north-confronting-arctic-insecurity-implications-for-the-united-states-and-nato/)
obtains a common understanding of what represents acceptable, legitimate, and nonthreatening military operations at peacetime in the region.
Advantages
- prevents miscalc
- facilitates peaceful development
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US CANDIAN OIL AGREEMENT
Current dispute over territorial claims for continental shelf in Beaufort Sea (task force)
Advantages
US/Canadian relations good
Affirming Law of the Sea (treaties good)
Oil advantage
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TRIBES
Ban drilling in the ANWR to protect the Gwich’in tribe
Advantages
(https://alaskawild.org/blog/the-gwichin-and-the-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge/#:~:text=There%20are%20two%20distinct%20Indigenous,in%20greater%20support%20of%20it.)
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6. NEGATIVE POSITIONS
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DISADS
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COUNTERPLANS
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COUNTERPLANS
- Do the plan somewhere other than the Arctic
- Advantage CPs directed toward advantage areas)
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KRITIKS
- Settler Colonialism
- links to topic wording (development and exploration are charged words)
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QUESTIONS?�
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