Why Wargames Accelerate Innovation
Matt Caffrey
The Historical Lag in CONOPS & Tactics
Telemobiloskop – 1904
Mitrailleuse – 1850’s
Mobile Observation Platform 1914
Trench Crosser 1916
The Innovation Cycle� �a.k.a. The Caffrey Loop
History
Theory
Doctrine
Strategy
Execution
The Innovation Cycle� �a.k.a. The Caffrey Loop
History
Theory
Doctrine
Strategy
Wargame
It will take roughly 50 years of additional evolutionary development before powered flight is achieved.
Wilbur Wright 1901
Analogy
What Changed Wilbur’s Mind, �and the World
The Impact
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Orient
Observe
Decide
Act
OODA Loop
To understand why wargames are so helpful it is necessary to understand OODA Loops.
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
OODA
Loop
Boyd predicted, and experience confirms, with experience OODA Loops get tighter and decisions get more effective
Does this give us an advantage in war?
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Friendly
Not necessarily.
As we go through our OODA Loop…
Decide
Orient
Adversary
Observe
War
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Friendly
…Our Adversaries go through their OODA Loop, their OODA Loops get tighter and decisions get more effective just as ours do
Decide
Orient
Observe
Adversary
War
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Observe
Orient
Decide
White/Assessment
Blue
Wargames allow their users to improve their decisions and their decision makers without a similar improvement taking place in the enemy
Decide
Orient
Red
Observe
Wargame
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Observe
Orient
Decide
OODA Loops of both the Blue and Red players get tighter and decisions get more effective, but Blue’s real adversary is unaffected. So…
Decide
Orient
Observe
Blue
Red
Wargame
White/Assessment
Theoretical Support – OODA Loops
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Friendly
When we do engage our adversary our OODA Loop is shorter and more effective – their’s is unchanged
Decide
Orient
Observe
Adversary
War