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Broadening resilience concepts:

From projects to systems and beyond the fencline

Dr. Jessica Whitehead, Joan P. Brock Endowed Executive Director, Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience, Old Dominion University

29 November 2022

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(Dr. Samantha Montano: @SamLMontano)

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What is resilience in �hazards/climate change?

The “punching bag” version: resilience as the time it takes get back to a baseline from a shock or stress.

…but is that baseline the best we can be?

Is the baseline good enough for the future?

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=23014272

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Virginia’s Definitions of Resilience and Adaptation

Resilience: “the ability of natural and built coastal environments to WITHSTAND AND recover from hazardous events such as extreme weather, storm surge, and recurrent flooding.“

Adaptation: “the alternative to protection by fortification – as adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects.”

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But that’s my grandkids’ problem!

This fifth grader will be 37 years old on New Year’s Day, 2050.

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Urban areas are at risk due to heat, flooding, and vector borne disease.
Changing rainfall and sea level rise are leading to more frequent floods, which impact property value, threaten tourism and industries, and makes infrastructure inviable.
Changing winter temperatures, wildfire patterns, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and warming ocean temperatures are redistributing species and modifying ecosystems
More frequent extreme heat episodes and changing climates are affecting rural economies and the health of rural workers

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/19/

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Difference between 2017 and 2022 Intermediate High Scenarios in Feet
Year	2017 Intermediate High	2022 Intermediate High	Difference
2000	0	0	0
2020	0.75	0.49	0.26
2040	1.74	1.21	0.53
2060	3.05	2.26	0.79
2080	4.76	3.71	1.05
2100	6.79	5.61	1.18

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (noaa.gov)

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Virginia Coastal Resilience Master Plan

2040 Flood Levels

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Virginia Coastal Resilience Master Plan

2060 Flood Levels

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Virginia Coastal Resilience Master Plan

2080 Flood Levels

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High Water Event

Frequency

Spring Tide

Twice a month

King Tide

3-4 times per year

Major Coastal Flooding

Once every 2-5 years

Extreme Flooding Event

Once in a generation

Source: Sarah Watson

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High Water Event

Frequency

Spring Tide

Twice a month

King Tide

3-4 times per year

Major Coastal Flooding

Once every 2-5 years

Extreme Flooding Event

Once in a generation

Source: Sarah Watson

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Miro et al. 2021: https://midatlantic-idf.rcc-acis.org/

Beyond evacuation and disaster damage, we are looking long term with changes in climate – hotter, occasionally drier, more often wetter, with real impacts to real people. We have limited time today so we could do another whole hour on heat, but I’m going to focus on the water and how planning for and adapting to where the tide will be and how much falls out of the sky will change the way the Commonwealth looks. “Change factor” is percent above or below the intensity, duration, and frequency curve for NOAA Atlas 14, the big NOAA synthesis that tells us how big we need to make infrastructure – stormwater, transportation, drinking and wastewater - to handle the amount of rain we expect during certain time periods.

Here, I’ve selected the “low emissions scenario.” Why? Because we’re doing clean energy! The Biden Administration will be wildly successful! There are higher business as usual scenarios, but at the moment with bold climate action in the US this is what we achieve.

And there’s still climate change. We still must adapt to higher, more intense rainfalls. Norfolk’s median change factor for the 24 hour rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency we’d expect for a is at 8% higher in the period ending in 2070 than 1950-2000. If we went out to 2100 – closer to the lifetime we expect from a road or a pipe – we are looking at Norfolk 13%.

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Change in Intensity, Duration, Frequency of rainfall at Oceana NAS through 2070

Miro, M., DeGaetano, A., Samaras. C., Romita Grocholski, K., López-Cantú, T., Webber, M., Eck, B. (2021). “Projected Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curve Tool for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Virginia”. Northeast Regional Climate Center. https://midatlantic-idf.rcc-acis.org/

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Projected Change in Number of Days over 95^o F

Source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC

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Moving beyond resilient projects to resilient systems

Social

Economic

Environmental

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Impacts of SLR in Coastal Virginia in 2050

Loss of 165 miles of major roads

Loss of 424 square miles of land

(1 football field of land every 82 minutes)

Loss of 91,811 parcels of land

Loss of 6,204 buildings

Source: Future-Sea-Level-and-Recurrent-Flooding-Risk-for-Coastal-Virginia-Final-Version.pdf (floodingresiliency.org)

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https://www.floodingresiliency.org/futurerisk/

This map was created by George McLeod here at ODU to illustrate the impacts to homes and to roads. The roads in red are those which will be impacted by the NOAA Intermediate High curve, which Virginia has essentially adopted as its planning benchmark. The red are roads and homes that are permanently inundated due to sea level rise. Layers in orange are those that are then additionally impacted during minor “nuisance” floods – and the yellow, sea level rise plus moderate flood events.

This focuses on south Hampton Roads but the tool lets you explore coast-wide – by 2080, 1,762 miles of roadway potentially affected by the combined sea level rise and tidal flooding, and 111,545 buildings. Some of the proposed projects on the table being analyzed by the Commonwealth will address some level of flooding – but we don’t know if it will address all of it, or if all projects will ever be funded, or if some of the projects proposed may not work if they fail to account for multiple hazards like combined rainfall and sea level rise-driven flooding. All of what’s being done now solely focuses on the coastal zone – in North Carolina our worst impacts in Hurricanes Matthew and Florence were not from surge, but from rainfall causing devastating flooding on rivers and creeks well inland, including central and even the mountains of NC. The Commonwealth has a lot of work to do – not just to think of how to address the places at risk, but how to use our places that are less risky to develop safer havens for those who can’t be protected by engineering.

These are not just lines on a map. They are homes. They are families. Schools, stormwater and sewer pipes, roads. A partnership between the company StormSensor and the City of Norfolk has placed sensors in Norfolk’s stormwater system to measure drain capacities, and backflows, and in some neighborhoods capacity has already been reduced by 50%, today. A 36” pipe is functioning like an 18” pipe, just due to sea level rise and land subsidence to today. That has tremendous impacts on the region.

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What’s at stake? Projected economic impacts of flooding in Coastal Virginia

Studies:

Projected Economic Impacts of Future Sea Level Rise and Recurrent Flooding in Coastal Virginia (McNab 2022)

Economic Impact of a Major Hurricane in Hampton Roads (McNab 2019)

Economic Impact of Recurrent Flooding in Virginia Beach from 2021-2069 (McNab et al 2021)

Impacts:

$80 billion or 13.5% of VA GDP

$40 billion or 40% of Hampton Roads GDP

$6.5 - $8.4 billion or 25% of Virginia Beach’s GDP

From Bob McNab:

The study periods were 2020 - 2039, 2040 - 2059, 2060 - 2079, and 2080 - 2099. In each study period, projected sea level rise was accounted for and then storm occurrence of 1 in 10, 1 in 25, 1 in 50, 1 in 100, and 1 in 500 year storms was used to project damages. From these estimates, we estimated the Average Annualized Losses (AALs) by estimating the area under the damage curve using the discrete damages from each study scenario.

Using the AALs by economic sector for each study period, I interpolated damages by year and then discounted the projected damages and economic losses into 2021 dollars under two discount scenarios. The net present value estimates represent the cost of future flooding in 2021 dollars.

Undiscounted damages over the study period were $153.4 billion. The net present value of damages was $56.1 billion using a 2.5% discount rate (that set by the federal government annually for water related projects/damages) or $27.8 billion using a 5% discount rate (to test the sensitivity of our results),

Using the net present value of future flooding damages, I estimated the economic losses associated with these damages using multipliers from the BEA's RIMS II input-output model. Using the 2.5% discount rate, the projected economic losses were equal to $79.1 billion dollars (hence the $80 billion) number. Using the 5% discount rate still resulted in $39.1 billion in economic losses in 2021 dollars. The losses in output would be roughly equivalent to 13.5% of Virginia's 2021 Gross Domestic Product.

The total impact from a hurricane similar to 2018's Florence or 2005's Katrina striking Hampton Roads could approach, or even exceed, $40 billion in the first year after landfall - equating to 40 percent of the Hampton Roads gross domestic product and nearly 10 percent of Virginia's GDP. Additional information here: ODU Study Puts the Estimated Price Tag of a Major Hurricane in Hampton Roads at $40 Billion or More « June 20, 2019

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City of Norfolk, n.d.

CCAN, n.d.

S. Droter, 2013, Ches. Bay Program

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Layering solutions: green infrastructure FOR transportation resilience in Goldsboro, NC

Images courtesy Will McDow, EDF; project partnership with NCSU BAE and City of Goldsboro

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HR Past & Current Investment in Resilience Projects

Hampton Roads Resilience Projects, HRPDC, Hampton Roads Resilience Projects | Hampton Roads Resilience Projects | HRGEO - Hampton Roads Geospatial Exchange Online Hampton Roads, Virginia Open GIS Data, Accessed May, 2022.

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HR Future Investment in Resilience Projects

Hampton Roads Resilience Projects, HRPDC, Hampton Roads Resilience Projects | Hampton Roads Resilience Projects | HRGEO - Hampton Roads Geospatial Exchange Online Hampton Roads, Virginia Open GIS Data, Accessed May, 2022.

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Principles to move beyond installation/fenceline projects: �Resilience thinking every day to get to 2050

CONNECT INSIDE AND OUTSIDE INSTALLATIONS

1

LEARN ABOUT FUTURE RISKS

2

AVOID FUTURE SUFFERING IN RISKY AREAS

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INVEST AND UPGRADE WISELY

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INTEGRATE RESILIENCE ACROSS PLANS AND PROGRAMS

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Contact:

Dr. Jessica Whitehead, ICAR

jcwhiteh@odu.edu; 757-683-5031

oduicar.org