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Economics and Finance PhDs: Publications, Productivity and Prospects

Yihui Lan, Ken Clements and Zong Ken Chai

UWA Business School

November 2022

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What do universities do?

  • Lofty ambition: Generators, depositories and transmitters of knowledge
  • In practice: Teaching, research and service
  • 40:40:20 Workload Model
  • Internal and external cross-subsidies, public and private goods produced, some of which are charged for
  • Difficult to untangle core activities

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Complex model: Does this lead to lack of public understanding,

lack of sympathy, if not outright suspicion, of universities??

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Higher Education Productivity

ABS

  • Experimental measures of output/productivity
  • MFP = 0.5% p. a.
  • Teaching: Enrolments
  • Research: Grants + research degrees

What PhDs Do

  • Achievements of PhDs
  • Jobs of PhDs in economics and finance
  • They get good academic jobs, and work in government, international agencies, business and non-profits
  • Great variety of jobs

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DATA SOURCE

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960 PhDs

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UNSW luminaries included sample

  • Andrew Answorth
  • Hazel Bateman
  • Bruce Bradbury
  • Luci Ellis
  • Andrew Jackson
  • Paul Jensen
  • Peter Siminski
  • Susan Thorp

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Oz PhDs completions

Economics

Finance

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Source: Department of Education, Skills and Employment

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Coverage of conference

  • About 30 participants in each conference
  • Coverage of sample: About 25% of all economics PhDs
  • Less for finance
  • Are the conference data representation? Yes (as far as we can tell)

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Activities of PhDs

If “not identified” are “non-academic”, then

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Academic level and age

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2-dimemsional data

  •  

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Information gaps

  • Aggregate data published by Commonwealth – some issues
  • Graduate Outcomes Survey
  • Graduates by university not published
  • Lost opportunity

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A PREVIEW

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Preview, I

  • Research benchmarks

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Preview, II

  • Research benchmarks
  • ABDC ratings

  • Some issues, but papers in highly rated journals highly cited, on average

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Preview, III

  • Research benchmarks
  • ABDC ratings
  • Role of experience in research

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Marginal product of experience

(% change in cites pa)

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Preview, IV

  • Research benchmarks
  • ABDC ratings
  • Role of experience in research
  • Academic marketplace

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Preview, V

  • Research benchmarks
  • ABDC ratings
  • Role of experience in research
  • Academic marketplace
  • Jobs outside academia

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Preview, VI

  • Research benchmarks
  • ABDC ratings
  • Role of experience in research
  • Academic marketplace
  • Jobs outside academia
  • Gender effects

  • Not much difference in productivity

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Preview, VII

  • Research benchmarks
  • ABDC ratings
  • Role of experience in research
  • Academic marketplace
  • Jobs outside academia
  • Gender effects
  • Finance vs economics

  • Similar productivity

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RESEARCH BENCHMARKS

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Three metrics

Publications

h-indexes

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Citations

Same pattern for all 3 metrics

  • High dispersion
  • E’s much larger than rest
  • 3 groups: (i) E, (ii) C+D, (iii) A+B

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Portfolio composition

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ABDC rating

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All papers

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AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS DEANS’ COUNCIL RATINGS

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Role of ABDC ratings

  • Prestige, promotion, ARC grants, etc.
  • Publication points in workload models
  • Results in quality improvement (?)
  • Should ABDC be accorded such exalted status?

Problems

  1. Some journals misclassified, books neglected
  2. Imposes same “style/culture/standards” on everyone
  3. Bad for creative research environment:
      • Directing research
      • Micro management of academics
      • Encourages “spreadsheet approach” to academic administration (?)

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Citations and ratings

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  • Highly rated papers receive more cites
  • Steep gradient

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CITATIONS GENERATION

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The value of research

Research complex. Difficult to evaluate quality

Advantages of citations

  • Indication that research is being noticed/influential
  • At least partially objective
  • Signal socially useful work

Disadvantages

  • All-publicity-is-good-publicity approach
  • Citations can be gamed
  • Citation practices differ across areas within econ and finance

  • Cites increasingly important – promotions, grants
  • “Citations are the coinage of reward in academia” (Blaug, 1999)
  • Hamermesh (JEL, 2018)

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Citations production function

  •  

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Level A - D

>2,200 cites

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Influence of professors

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Level A - D

Level E

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Cites and Experience

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Level-E effect

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Value of pedigree

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The UNSW effect

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Marginal product of experience �(% change in cites)

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Optimisation

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Max cites

MC

Max surplus

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Stop sooner for maximum surplus

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Max cites

MC

Max surplus

Surplus

WARNING! Goes across different cohorts. Grain of salt necessary.

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Citations, h-index and papers -- same story

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THE ACADEMIC MARKET

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Where they go

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Where they are from

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Property I: Own-hires dominate

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Property II: Influence of Geography

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Property III: Isolation, outside Koala Triangle

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JOBS OUTSIDE ACADEMIA

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The network (247 individuals)

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ECONOMICS vs FINANCE,�MALE vs FEMALE

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Econ/finance, shares

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Econ/finance, shares

Econ/finance, h-indexes

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Econ/finance, shares

  • Male/female, shares

Econ/finance, h-indexes

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Productivity contrasts

Econ/finance, shares

  • Male/female, shares

Econ/finance, h-indexes

  • Male/female, h-indexes

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FURTHER RESULTS

(Some in the paper)

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  1. Sample representative?
  • 184 individuals not involved in conferences from Go4 (UNSW, Syd, UQ, UWA)
  • 117 individuals from Go4 who came to conference
  • No significant differences in research performance

  1. Time profiles of pubs and cites
  2. Graduate Outcomes Survey
    • Underemployment and overqualified
    • Earnings

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Conclusion: Sample reasonably representative

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Takeaways

  1. Current PhD students: Many rewarding jobs outside academia
  2. Academics: Citation profile as research-influence monitor. Excess citations
  3. Gender: Females under represented. But no major gender gaps in research productivity
  4. Academic administrators: Use research benchmarks in Workload Model

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THANK YOU

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References

Blaug, M., ed., (1999). Who’s Who in Economics. 3rd edn. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Clements, K. W., and J. Si (2019). “What do Australian Economics PhDs Do?” Australian Economic Review 52: 134-44. Full set of letters contained in UWA Economics Discussion Paper 17.16.

Hamermesh, D. S. (2018). “Citations in Economics: Measurement, Uses and Impacts.” Journal of Economic Literature 56: 115-56.

Lan, Y., K. W. Clements and Z. K. Chai (2022). “Australian PhDs in Economics and Finance: Professional Activities, Productivity and Prospects.” UWA Economics Discussion Paper 22.04.

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OTHER SLIDES/NOTES

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Economics and Finance PhDs: Professional Activities, Productivity and Prospects

Yihui Lan, Ken Clements and Zong Ken Chai*

UWA Business School

June 2022

*For helpful discussions and comments, we are grateful to Emiliano Carlevaro, Simon Chang, Shawn Chen, Izan, Alison Preston, Diana Soetjipto, Rod Tyers and participants at a UWA seminar.

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Abstract

This research analyses the careers of more than 600 individuals with PhDs in economics or finance from Australian universities. About 60 percent are in now academia and one-quarter of those are at level E (professor). Publication and citation profiles are constructed that could be useful benchmarks for individuals and institution in assessing research productivity. Academic experience (the number of years since gaining the PhD) is established as a major driver of publications and citations (but subject to diminishing returns). Four findings are noteworthy. (i) For those in academia, the matrix linking PhD-awarding and employing universities is sparse, but contains hints of geographic sub-networks possibly reflecting agglomeration advantages. (ii) Outside the academic sector, there is an encouragingly diverse range of jobs for PhDs. (iii) Female PhDs are substantially under represented, but there is no gender gap in research productivity. (iv) Finance scholars achieve research outcomes little different to economists.

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Roadmap

  1. Introduction
  2. Data sources
  3. The issues
  4. Research benchmarks
  5. Are ABDC ratings reliable?
  6. Citations generation
  7. The academic market
  8. The non-academics
  9. Economics vs finance, male vs female
  10. Further results
  11. Wrap up

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ABS is helping

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Getting a job

  • Just about everyone can land a reasonable job
  • But:
      • Takes time
      • Need to be flexible
  • Determination pays
  • Evidence: Employment histories of 42 UWA PhDs (and their letters)
  • Clements and Si (2019)

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ANU luminaries included sample

  • Chris Jones
  • Meng Xin
  • Boyd Hunter
  • Rabee Tourky
  • Kieron Meagher
  • Matthew Gray
  • Robert Ackland
  • John Stachurski
  • Renée Fry-McKibbin
  • Tim Kam
  • Tina Kao

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20k papers

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All Papers

19,963

With Algo

18,068

Academic

14,303

Level E

7,520

A*

494

A

1,348

B

1,017

C

304

Non ABDC�4,357

Level D�2,854

A*�155

A�597

B�357

C�106

Non ABDC�1,639

Level C�2,759

A*�141

A�597

B�321

C�81

Non ABDC�1,619

Level B�1,001

A*�63

A�179

B�109

C�19

Non ABDC�631

Level A�169

A*�15

A�39

B�13

C�6

Non ABDC�96

Other

3,765

Non Academic

2,672

Student

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Not Located

1,021

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What PhDs do

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Total 960

MSA +ABDC ≥1

637

Academic

370

Level E

102

Level D

74

Level C

97

Level B

81

Level A

15

Other

267

Non Academic

150

Student

7

Not Located

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Academic level by cohort

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Publications

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Citations

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h-indexes

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Level A - D

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Level E

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Level A - D

Level E

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Level A - D

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Level E

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Level A - D

Level E

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Level A - D

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Level E

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Level A - D

Level E

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Level A - D

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Level E

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91

Level A - D

Level E

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Cubic added

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Cubic added

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Cites against papers (arithmetic and geometric)

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h-index against papers (arithmetic and geometric)

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Influence of professors

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Level E

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Property II: Proximity, Monash to Melbourne

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Property II (cont’d): Melbourne to Monash

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UNSW own-hires

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Who are they?

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Minxian Yang

Hazel Bateman

Bruce Bradbury

Andrew B Jackson

Jonathan Kim Huat Lim

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Where do they go?

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Jobs outside academia

103

Universities (other than regular teaching and research)

 

52

Government

 

54

Australian

25

 

State

19

 

Overseas

10

 

Consulting

 

37

Big 4

8

 

Other

29

 

Other

 

34

International agencies

 

23

World Bank

5

 

Asian Development Bank

5

 

IMF

3

 

UN

3

 

Other

7

 

Central banks

 

15

RBA

7

 

Fed

2

 

Overseas

6

 

Finance sector

 

12

High schools, etc.

 

7

Research institutions

 

9

Commercial banks

 

4

TOTAL

 

247

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Jobs in Government

104

AUST. GOVERNMENT

 

25

Treasury

3

 

Aust Bureau of Statistics

3

 

Productivity Commission

3

 

CSIRO

3

 

Aust Taxation Office

2

 

Other

11

 

AUST. STATE GOVTS

 

19

Victoria

8

 

NSW

5

 

Other

6

 

Overseas Governments

 

10

Azerbaijan

1

 

Botswana

1

 

Brazil

1

 

Canada

2

 

Mauritius

1

 

NZ

1

 

Philippines

1

 

UK

1

 

Vietnam

1

 

TOTAL

 

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Citations per paper �(Medians)

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Property III (cont’d): Relative own-hires

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