Lessons from Values Cluster Research: Understanding & Engaging Voters
Prentiss Haney, Ohio Organizing Collaborative
Martina Smith, HIT Strategies
Misha Barnes, Ohio Progressive Collaborative
WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING?
OHIO’S VOTER PARTICIPATION LAGS BEHIND OTHER MIDWESTERN STATES….BY DESIGN
State
AVR/
SDR?
2018 Voter
Participation
2014-18 Change:
Youth Vote
2014-18 Change: Minority Vote
2014-18 Change:
White Vote
Diversity Change from 2010
MN
64.2%
WI
61.7%
MI
IA
PA
OH
58%
57.9%
51.8%
50.9%
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
20%
17.8%
16%
12.1%
19.1%
10.5%
21.4%
17%
13.1%
17%
12.5%
8.7%
10.4%
8.9%
11.1%
6.4%
14.1%
12.8%
+2.5%
+2.9%
-1%
+1.2%
+1.3%
-1.1%
OHIO’S POSSIBLE ELECTORATE:
Audience
Unregistered
Eligible Voters
VR Goal
Mobilization Goal:
25% Vote
Black
Latino
AAPI
Young
(Under 35)
TOTAL
569,837
169,982
72,532
1,570,606
2,382,957
140,000
40,000
10,000
140,000
330,000
35,000
10,000
2,500
35,000
82,500
Ohio Clusters
Values Clusters | Ohio Black Values Clusters vs. National Black Values Clusters |
5
National Clusters
Key Findings
Legacy
Civil Rights
Legacy
Civil Rights
Race Neutral
Conservatives
Race Neutral
Conservatives
Rightfully
Cynical
Rightfully
Cynical
NextGen
Optimist
NextGen
Optimist
Aspirational
Activists
This grey box will always represent a national cluster comparison
Survey Questions | Total | Legacy Civil Rights | NextGen Optimist | Rightfully Cynical | Conservative Race Neutral |
Direction of Country | 30% Satisfied | 32% Satisfied | 41%* Satisfied | 20%* Satisfied | 19%* Satisfied |
Direction of Ohio | 36% Satisfied | 32% Satisfied | 46%* Satisfied | 27%* Satisfied | 36% Satisfied |
Biden/Trump Favorability Scale 0-10 | Mean Biden: 5.1 Mean Trump: 2.2 | Mean Biden: 5.9* Mean Trump: 1.5%* | Mean Biden: 6.0* Mean Trump: 2.1 | Mean Biden: 4.2* Mean Trump: 2.1 | Mean Biden: 3.3* Mean Trump: 3.8* |
Party ID | 57% Democrat 17% Republican 25% Independent | 72%* Democrat 11%* Republican 17%* Independent | 64% Democrat 16% Republican 20% Independent | 54% Democrat 12%* Republican 34%* Independent | 33%* Democrat 42%* Republican 24% Independent |
Ideology | 44% Moderate 30% Progressive 26% Conservative | 41%* Progressive 41% Moderate 18%* Conservative | 30% Progressive 47% Moderate 23% Conservative | 37% Progressive 44% Moderate 19%* Conservative | 13%* Progressive 33%* Moderate 54%* Conservative |
Voted in 2022 Midterm Elections | 22% Voted in Midterms | 30%* Voted in Midterms | 25% Voted in Midterms | 22% Voted in Midterms | 15%* Voted in Midterms |
6
Beyond Demographics | Black Political Baseline |
Survey Questions | Total | Legacy Civil Rights | NextGen Optimist | Rightfully Cynical | Conservative Race Neutral |
Voting in 2022 “Great Deal” Solidarity w/Black community | 33% had a great deal of solidarity w/the Black community | 40%* had a great deal of solidarity w/the Black community | 33% had a great deal of solidarity w/the Black community | 38% had a great deal of solidarity w/the Black community | 19%* had a great deal of solidarity w/the Black community |
Importance of Being Black to Identity | 51% Very Important | 55% Very Important | 62%* Very Important | 56% Very Important | 24%* Very Important |
What is Most Important to You – Being Black or American | 47% Being Black 39% Being American | 43%* Being Black 41% Being American | 55%* Being Black 35% Being American | 58%* Being Black 29%* Being American | 28%* Being Black 59%* Being American |
I Feel Like a Full and Equal Citizen in this Country | 14% Strongly Agree | 11% Strongly Agree | 14% Strongly Agree | 10% Strongly Agree | 24%* Strongly Agree |
Honoring Ancestors is a Guiding Principle | 43% Strongly Agree | 42% Strongly Agree | 45% Strongly Agree | 48% Strongly Agree | 39% Strongly Agree |
Attend Religious Services | 21% Once a Week 20% Seldom 20% Never | 21% A Few Times a Year/Never | 27%* Once a Week | 26%* Never | 20% Once a Week |
7
Beyond Demographics | Black Identity |
Survey Questions | Total | Legacy Civil Rights | NextGen Optimist | Rightfully Cynical | Conservative Race Neutral |
Vote Power Extremely Powerful (10) | Mean: 4.6 16% Extremely Powerful | Mann: 5.5* 19%* Extremely Powerful | Mean: 5.1* 16% Extremely Powerful | Mean: 3.7* 10%* Extremely Powerful | Mean: 4.1* 14% Extremely Powerful |
Community Power Extremely Powerful (10) | Mean: 5.0 17% Extremely Powerful | Mean: 5.6* 20% Extremely Powerful | Mean: 5.6* 17% Extremely Powerful | Mean: 3.7* 11%* Extremely Powerful | Mean: 5.5 21% Extremely Powerful |
Feelings About Current State of Politics “A Lot” | 40% Angry | 47%* Angry | 27%* Angry | 51%* Angry | 42% Angry |
What is Most at Stake in Politics | 43% Racial Violence | 40%* Our Democracy | 47%* Ending Police Brutality | 58%* Racial Violence | 63%* Economic Security |
A. Black People Can Come Together for Change B. The Wealthy and Powerful Will Block Real Change | Statement A: 60% Statement B: 40% | Statement A: 66%* Statement B: 34%* | Statement A: 63% Statement B: 37% | Statement A: 47%* Statement B: 53%* | Statement A: 65% Statement B: 35% |
A. If Black People Work Together, We Can Create Change B. We Can Create Change Regardless of Race | Statement A: 28% Statement B: 72% | Statement A: 26% Statement B: 74% | Statement A: 30% Statement B: 70% | Statement A: 30% Statement B: 70% | Statement A: 22% Statement B: 78% |
8
Beyond Demographics | Black Political Efficacy |
Legacy Civil Rights Persona
Significant Values Variables | ||
| Power | They have the strongest since of their individual power and a strong sense of the collective power of the Black community. |
| Solidarity | They felt a great deal of solidarity with the Black community in 2022 more so than any other persona. |
| Black identity | They believe being Black is important to their identity. Being Black and being American are equally important to their identity. |
| Honoring Ancestors | Overall, the majority agree that honoring the legacy of their ancestors is a guiding principle in their lives. |
| Vote Turnout | They consistently vote higher in general elections than any other persona. |
| Sense of Morality | More than any other persona, they believe it is NOT necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values. |
| Politics | They have the most favorable view of Biden, and the least favorable view of Trump. |
The Legacy Civil Rights persona has higher resources (income) than other personas. They are strong Democrats, who equally lean progressive as well as moderate. While they share similarities with the national cluster, their sense of individual power (48%) is lower than the national cluster (82%). This persona is 52% male and 47% female.
“I’ll drive further, wait longer, and bring 5 IDs to make sure I vote.”
“My ancestors sacrificed too much for me not to vote.”
of OH Black respondents
Significant Demographic Variables | |
72%* | identify as Democrats |
72%* | are non-college graduates |
69%* | are not parents/guardians of children under age 18 |
47%* | are 50 and older |
45%* | are eligible but not registered voters |
41%* | identify as progressive |
31%* | have incomes $75K or greater |
30%* | voted in the 2022 midterm elections |
9
NextGen Optimist Persona
Significant Values Variables | ||
| Power | They share a high sense of power like the Legacy persona as well as the collective power of the Black community. |
| Solidarity | Three in ten of this persona felt a great deal of solidarity leading up to the midterm elections. |
| Black identity | Being Black/African American is more important to their identity than any other persona. |
| Honoring Ancestors | Honoring the struggles of their ancestors is a guiding principle in their lives, and here too, they mirror the Legacy persona. |
| Vote Turnout | They turnout lower than the Legacy persona but are equal to the Cynical. |
| Sense of Morality | They attend religious services on a weekly basis, and they believe it IS necessary to believe in God to be moral. |
| Politics | They view Biden very favorably. In our current politics, ending police brutality is most at stake for them. |
The NextGen Optimist persona mirrors the Legacy persona on many values as the two were similar in the national clusters. Being Black is more important to their identity than any other persona, they are the most religious of all the personas – attending church more frequently than other personas. They have lower resources (education and income). This persona is 58% female and 48% male.
of OH Black respondents
Significant Demographic Variables | |
70%* | are not parents/guardians of children under 18 |
65%* | are not married/partnered |
59%* | voted in 0 of past 5 elections |
53%* | are 18-49 |
40%* | identify as strong Democrats |
39%* | are unmarried women |
38%* | are single |
25%* | have income less than 24.9K |
10
“Nobody has ever explained this to me like this. If somebody would have said this, I would have voted.”
“You showing all this process, but I don’t know anybody that has benefited from any of this.”
Rightfully Cynical Persona
Significant Values Variables | ||
| Power | They have the lowest sense of individual power and the collective power of the Black community compared to all other personas. |
| Solidarity | Like the Legacy persona, they felt a great deal so solidarity leading up to the midterm elections. |
| Black identity | Being Black is more important to them than being American. They feel less like an equal citizen in this country than any other persona. |
| Honoring Ancestors | Honoring ancestors is a guiding principle in their lives. |
| Vote Turnout | Only 2 in 10 voted in the 2022 midterm elections. |
| Sense of Morality | They are equally split on believing in God IS/is NOT necessary to be moral and have good values. |
| Politics | They have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. They identify more as Independents with a moderate approach to politics. |
The Rightfully Cynical persona is is on the younger side (average age is 42 with 70% under 50). The majority are registered voters with the lowest sense of individual power and the collective power of the Black community. They are more female than any other persona. There are more likely to believe that the wealthy and powerful will block real change than any other persona. They turn out to vote a little lower than the Optimist. This persona is 62% female and 34% male.
of OH Black respondents
Significant Demographic Variables | |
72%* | are registered voters |
70%* | are 18 – 49 |
62%* | are women |
53%* | have income less than 45K |
51%* | are non-college women |
49%* | are parents/guardians' children under 18 |
34%* | identify as Independents |
11
“My hood ain’t get no better under Obama and no worse under Trump, so what do any of these
presidents got to do with me?”
“I was broke under Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and I’m still broke under Biden. So, I’m just going to worry about making this money.”
Race Neutral Conservative Persona
The Race Neutral Conservative persona is not as old or as strong of a partisan as the national Conservative persona. Their sense of individual power is extremely low compared to the other Ohio clusters and the national Conservative cluster. On other values of identity and solidarity, they mirror the national Conservative persona. They can be found in “other parts” of Ohio more so than any other persona. This persona is 49% female and 49% male.
of OH Black respondents
12
Significant Values Variables | ||
| Power | This persona shares the lowest sense of individual power with the Cynical, but a higher sense of the collective power of the Black community. |
| Solidarity | They felt the least amount of solidarity with the Black community leading up to the 2022 midterm elections. |
| Black identity | Being American is more important than being Black/African American. |
| Honoring Ancestors | While the majority agree in honoring ancestors, it is the lowest of all personas. |
| Vote Turnout | Only 15% voted in the 2022 midterms – the lowest of any persona. |
| Sense of Morality | The majority believe it IS necessary to believe in God to be moral and have good values. |
| Politics | About a quarter have a favorable view of both Biden and Trump, which is quite different from the national Conservatives. |
Significant Demographic Variables | |
70%* | are 18 - 49 |
54%* | identify as conservative |
46%* | identify as millennials |
42%* | identify as Republicans |
41%* | voted in the 2020 general election |
35%* | are 30-39 |
34%* | have income 75K or greater |
32%* | have HS diploma only |
“Republicans just understand business better. If we’re going to be screwed any way, we should
at least make some money.”
“They’re all racist, at least with Trump we know exactly what we’re going to get rather than
smiling in our face and stabbing us in the back.”
10. No matter how frequently you vote in elections, how much power do you feel that your vote has to make change on issues that matter to you? Rate on a scale of 0 to 10.
13
Perceptions of Power | Perceptions of power among Black people in Ohio are 20 pts lower than national. This erosion of power is even true of ‘Legacy’ voters while the ‘Cynics’ express similar realities |
11. No matter how frequently you vote in elections, how much power do you feel that the Black community has to make change on issues that matter most to their community? Rate on a scale of 0 to 10.
14
Black Community Power | Like individual power, the collective power of the Black community is much lower in Ohio than it is nationally |
12. When following news about politics or thinking about the current state of our politics, how much do you feel (have you felt) the following?
15
Emotions about Politics | Anger and fear are the most salient emotions across all Ohio clusters when following news or politics, both demobilizing emotions, compared to the hope that was felt nationally |
Cynical
% who felt emotion “a lot”
Total OH
Legacy
Optimist
Conservative
Total U.S.
Hope is most salient in the national clusters leading up to the midterm elections
Anger and fear characterize attitudes towards politics post-election
16
Black Turnout | More so than any persona, the Rightfully Cynical has the highest registration rate, but a low turnout rate |
Cluster Turnout for Eligible Elections
| Total | Legacy | Optimist | Cynical | Conservative |
Low turnout | 73% | 62% | 79% | 74% | 77% |
High turnout | 27% | 38% | 21% | 26% | 23% |
Vote History 2012 - 2022 | There was some drop off in voting from 2018 to 2022 |
2012 – 2022 Vote History | Total | Legacy | Optimist | Cynical | Conservative |
2022 | 22% | 30% | 25% | 22% | 15% |
2020 | 49% | 57% | 55% | 52% | 41% |
2018 | 36% | 42% | 41% | 36% | 32% |
2016 | 50% | 60% | 51% | 48% | 47% |
2014 | 16% | 26% | 13% | 14% | 12% |
2012 | 50% | 60% | 57% | 51% | 40% |
17
-14 drop in Ohio Black votes from 2018 to 2022, compared to 10% drop nationally
18
Legacy
Civil Rights
28%
Rightfully
Cynical
26%
NextGen
Optimist
31%
Conservative
Race Neutral
15%
Black Ohioans, while similar on some values – especially Black identity, have unique characteristics apart from the national clusters
ORGANIZE & ACTIVATE
ORGANIZE
ENGAGE
Likely to be age 50+, strong Dems with a strong sense of political power |
Conventional Strategy: Mobilization, GOTV |
Cluster Strategy: Activate relational organizing, volunteering, donating Electoral Power |
Likely to be age 18-49, strong Dems who vote sporadically |
Conventional Strategy: Mobilization, GOTV |
Cluster Strategy: Voter guides, 365 engagement opportunities, Click HERE messaging Information as power Electoral Power |
Likely to be 18-49, Independent, frustrated with both parties, low sense of power |
Conventional Strategy: Mobilization, GOTV |
Cluster Strategy: Agenda progress report, elected officials report card, Click HERE messaging Information as power Punitive Power |
Likely to be millennials, votes even more sporadically than any cluster |
Conventional Strategy: Ignored by Dems Misinformation from GOP |
Cluster Strategy: Click HERE messaging Economic progress as power Punitive Power |