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THE CONVERGENCE OF COSYSMO WITH MBSE

Gan Wang, Barry Papke

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Hey! You’ve got your cost model in my architecture model!!

No! You’ve got your architecture model in my cost model!!

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WHY SHOULD SYSTEMS ENGINEERS CARE ABOUT COST ESTIMATING? OR ABOUT COSYSMO?

Multiple concepts
Investment decisions

Concept Exploration

Time critical
Cost criteria affects design decisions

Competitive Assessment

Limited time and resources
Early estimates based on high level concepts

Proposal Gates

Bottoms-up methods historically underestimate
Time and labor intensive.

Cost Volume Final Pricing

Design details often not available
Limited time and resources

Engineering Change Proposals

Cost baseline is part of the technical baseline throughout the project lifecycle!

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A QUICK REVIEW OF COSYSMO

History of Major Events:

2000 COCOMO –Boehm
2005 COSYSMO –Valerdi
2007 SysML Standard – OMG
2009 Reuse in COSYSMO – Fortune, Valerdi, Wang
2014/2016 General Reuse Framework – Wang
2017 Integration of COSYSMO and MBSE – Wang, Papke
2018 COSYSMO 3.0 thesis – Alstad

COSYSMO

Size

Drivers

Effort

Multipliers

Effort

Calibration

# Requirements

# Interfaces

# Scenarios

# Algorithms

Application factors

8 factors

Team factors

6 factors

Schedule driver

4 Size Drivers and 14 Cost Drivers

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SIZE DRIVERS AND THE GENERAL REUSE FRAMEWORK

The General Reuse Framework (GRF) extends COSYSMO CER to consider two reuse processes

“Development With Reuse (DWR)”
“Development For Reuse (DFR)”

Four (4) size drivers evaluated in terms of

DWR categories (6)
DFR categories (5)
Levels of Difficulty (3)

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REVIEW OF COSYSMO WITH THE GENERAL REUSE FRAMEWORK

SE Effort = (A_DWR·SS^E^DWR·CEM_DWR)+(A_DFR·SS^E^DFR·CEM_DFR)

SE Effort = total systems engineering effort in person hours

SS = System Size (sum of each size driver count for DWR and DFR)

E = nonlinearity for the productivity curve, representing a diseconomy of scale

A = calibration constant, typically derived from historical project data

CEM = composite effort multiplier (cost drivers)

Where:

The COSYSMO Cost Estimating Relationship (CER) with the GRF

6 DWR Levels x 3 Difficulty Levels x 4 Size Drivers = 72 unique DWR SS Counts

4 DFR Levels x 3 Difficulty Levels x 4 Size Drivers = 48 unique DFR SS Counts

To elaborate the math, we get:

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BACKGROUND

In 2017, we developed an approach to directly capture COSYSMO size drivers in a SysML model

By making the size drivers added properties of the architecture model

The approach enables systems engineers to identify cost drivers while developing architecture

Classified size driver counts could be exported to a COSYSMO cost estimating tool
Or, COSYSMO CER could be directly embedded in system modeling tool (e.g., Cameo / CATIA Magic)

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TURNING ORIGINALLY A DOCUMENT BASED APPROACH…

Prior to SysML and the widespread adoption of MBSE…
Completely manual process of analyzing and extracting drivers from document-based systems engineering artifacts, on paper (or spreadsheet)

Static
Inconsistency
Multiple data entries
No traceability
Out of date

Labor Intensive!

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INTO… MODEL-BASED COSYSMO IN THE AGE OF MBSE

SysML – Open standard systems modeling language

Provides a common, consistent set of model elements to represent each of the four size drivers
Provides a level of rigor, consistency and repeatability in the counting process.

Advanced modeling tools, capable of executing complex queries using structured expressions and custom scripts

Can parse the model and summarize driver counts with classifications

System models provide

More rigor and completeness
Dynamic and live
Embedded traceability
Minimized data entries and errors
Maintaining evolving ASoT

COSYSMO

Wide Adoption of MBSE

SysML with Advanced Modeling Tools

Practical Parametric SE Cost Estimation

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THE COSYSMO PROFILE

The COSYSMO profile defines stereotypes for the size drivers, and classifications for the DWR and DFR reuse categories and levels of difficulty
Stereotyped COSYSMO drivers are assigned with properties with “Tag Values”
Embedded scripts with structured expressions and Parametric Diagrams automates the counting of drivers and calculation of system size, per COSYSMO CER

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PROFILE FEATURES: CLASSIFICATION MAKE SIMPLE

Features of the Generic Table in CAMEO / CATIA Magic simplifies the analysis process

In a Generic Table or a Requirements Table, create a New Custom Column for DWR, DFR and Difficulty Stereotypes
The sizing analyst can first select the model elements to be included in the count and filter the table to show only selected requirements
Clicking in the cell to present the enumerated list of possible values and then click on the value

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PROFILE FEATURES: AUTOMATION OF COUNTING

When executed, scripts parse the model, count the number of model elements in each of the DWR and DFR size driver categories and summerizes the totals to their respective Size Driver Block Value Properties.
The scripts are a combination of Stereotypes, Enumerations, and Opaque Behaviors.

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PROFILE FEATURES: CALCULATION OF SYSTEM SIZE

The COSYSMO CER is implemented with Constraint Blocks in Parametric Diagrams
When the Parametric Diagram is executed, the profile calculates system size
All properties are displayed in the variables pane of the simulation window and saved as a sizing instance

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PROFILE FEATURES: THE COMPOSITE EFFORT MULTIPLIER IMPLEMENTED AS A BLOCK

Cost Drivers are represented by a Cost Driver Block with Value Properties for the fourteen cost drivers.
A Cost Driver stereotype allows the rating level to be applied to each cost driver value property.
A custom script translates the rating level (Very Low to Extra High) into the numerical values that determine the Cost Effort Multiplier.

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BUT WHAT DO YOU COUNT?

Advanced Modeling Features: Also Implement COSYSMO Driver Counting Rules

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EXAMPLE: SYSTEM INTERFACE (IF) IN SYSTEM MODEL

COSYSMO Interface (IF) counting rule:

External interfaces
Level 1 internal interfaces

SysML Implementation: using Internal Block Diagram

Ports
Interface Blocks and Connectors
Items Flows

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EXAMPLE: CLASSIFICATION IF IN SYSTEM MODEL

In CAMEO/CATIA Magic, create a custom White Box ICD Table for the SOI and tabulates the COSYSMO IFs based on counting rule

Each row in the table represents a Connector.
The Port Features column shows the properties of the Interface Block that types the Port at each end of the connector.
Add New Custom Columns for the DWR, DFR and Difficulty stereotypes.
Reuse Levels and Difficulty are derived from the Port Features (i.e. Interface Blocks).

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ADVANCED QUERIES TO CROSS-CHECK RESULTS

While not part of the original COSYSMO counting rules, there are clear relationships between each of the size drivers.
There are two fundamental relationships to review:

Traceability (Completeness and Correctness)
Consistency of DWR, DFR, and Difficulty assignments

The matrix above shows traceability between Requirements and Operational Scenarios.

The table above shows DWR and Difficulty of Algorithms compared to the Requirements they Satisfy.

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COSYSMO COST ESTIMATION PROCESS WITH MBSE

Step 1: Develop the System Architecture

Conformed to SysML

Step 3: Compute System Size and SE Effort

(Hit the Run Simulation Button!)

Simplified with less labor and more rigor
Sizing properties are properties of the architecture model
Cross cutting views enable quality review

Size driver counting is fully automated
Calculation of system size and effort is fully automated
Results are saved within the architecture model or can be exported .

Step 2: Identify Size Drivers (REQ, IF, ALG and SCN)

Step 2a: Classify Reuse Category and Difficulty Levels

Step 2b: Determine/Assign Reuse Category and Difficulty

Step 2c: Review for Completeness and Consistency

Iterate

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COSYSMO with MBSE simplifies the labor intensive tasks and lets the Systems Engineer focus on the important things!

Tasks for MSBE Toolset

Maintain Sizing Data as part of the System Architecture
Provide efficient User Interface to apply Sizing Parameters
Automates Counting
Calculates System Size and SE Effort
Provide Cross Cutting Views for Analysis

Tasks for the Systems Engineer

Design the System
Identify Sizing Elements
Determine Reuse Category and Complexity
Analyze Results

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SUMMARY

A convergence of tool, method, and process

Special SysML profile integrates COSYSMO into system architecture

This convergence makes

Cost part of architecture
Estimating process part of architecture development
Cost estimating a responsibility of systems engineer/architect

It improves estimating rigor, quality and efficiency

Strong traceability
Continuous and live
Validation of completeness, correctness, and consistency
Enabling “what-ifs” and cost-based trade studies
Saving time and effort

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NEXT STEPS – CALL FOR ACTION

Develop a real use case (real system, actual estimation) to apply the method

Compare with the paper-based result

Develop a model calibration to integrate into profile as plugin

COSYSMO completely integrated into the system modeling tool

To do this… we need a partner!

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Questions and Comments?

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