Thinking Like a Scientist�Psychology as a Science

Psychology

• The scientific study of behavior and mental processes.
• Uses scientific research methods.
• Behavior includes all observable behavior.
• Mental processes include thoughts, feelings and dreams.
• Goals of Psychology is to Describe, Predict & Control behavior & mental processes

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Common Sense

• Conclusions based solely on personal experience and sensible logic
• Typically describes what has happened rather than what will happen
• Can lead to incorrect conclusions because:
• People interpret what common sense means differently
• You may be missing important information that would help you come to a reasonable conclusion

Did you know…

• It is nearly impossible to fold a regular sheet of paper in half more than 7 times.
• Go ahead and try!

• Mythbusters pulled it off with a piece of paper as big as an airplane hanger and a steam roller. (4 min)

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Science vs. Common Sense

• Science helps build explanations that are consistent and predictive rather than

• Science is based on
• knowledge of facts
• developing theories
• testing hypotheses
• public and repeatable procedures

• Common Sense is conflicting and describes the past (hindsight)

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• Common Sense is based on

- past experience

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Hindsight Bias

• The “I knew it all along” phenomenon.
• The Tendency to exaggerate one’s ability to have foreseen how something would turn out after learning the outcome.
• You forget that previously you unsure how things would turn out and think instead you always knew what the outcome would be.

EXAMPLE: After the Lions decide to go for it on 4^th and goal from the 2 yard line and don’t get, they end up losing by 1 point. After the game, you say, “I told you they should have kicked the field goal!”

More Hindsight Bias Examples

• When a movie reaches its end & you discover who the killer really was, you might look back on your memory of the film and misrember your initial impressions of the guilty character.
• Looking back at situations in the film we begin to believe that it was clear what was going to happen.
• You walk away from the film thinking that you knew it all along but in reality, you probably didn’t

OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS

• Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our current knowledge
• We are more confident than we are correct.
• How long will it take you to do your homework? – Do you tend to underestimate how long it takes? - Overconfidence is why

Perceiving Order in Random Events

• We are naturally programmed to look for patterns.
• Random sequences often don’t look random
• Prior events don’t determine future outcomes
• With a large enough sample, the impossible becomes inevitable.
• Given the billions of events that occur each day and given enough days, some stunning coincidences are sure to occur

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Virginia couple wins lottery

3 times in one month!

Confirmation Bias

• Our tendency to search for information that confirms our beliefs & ignore evidence that disputes our beliefs.
• Try this card trick: http://www.caveofmagic.com/
• This works because we only look for our chosen card confirming the wizards’s mental telepathy and ignore the fact that second set of cards is in fact, an entirely new set!
• NONE of the cards in the new set is the same as the old one so of course the card you picked is missing.

The Rat is Always Right

• Scientists need to be:
• Curious – striving to explore and understand
• Skeptical – Always ask…
• What do you mean?
• How do you know?
• Humble – be willing to admit when the evidence shows we’re wrong.

How to Avoid these Thinking Pitfalls?�Think Critically!

• Don’t blindly accept arguments and conclusions
• Look for evidence gathered scientifically
• Who is providing the evidence? Are they biased?
• Are the right conclusions being drawn?

DAILY

DOUBLE

QUESTION�What is the difference between Common Sense and Science?

ANSWER:

Common sense relies on the past and may be wrong.

Science uses research & facts to provide consistent predictions