1
Space imaging spectrometer map
Invention
Utility
Visible
Ubiquity
instrument
Invisible
Visibility
Custom
Commercial
Industrial
sensor
optics
TTC
internet
cloud
raw data
customers
information
L1-L3 data
pipeline
big data
calibration
tasking
marketing
launch
launch party!
supply mgmt
policy decisions
fix the leak
government
parts
2nd+
spacecraft
2nd+
design
scientists
VARs?
more
new markets
growth
operations
iterate
how to use it?
don’t believe it
gap
Adaptive
“Turn the crank”
Outcomes
Process
Shanti Rao, 2019 shanti@shantirao.com
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
2
What kind of organization? (More than one way to segment it)
Invention
Utility
Visible
Ubiquity
instrument
Invisible
Visibility
Custom
Commercial
Industrial
sensor
optics
TTC
internet
cloud
raw data
customers
information
L1-L3 data
big data
calibration
tasking
marketing
launch
launch party!
supply mgmt
policy decisions
fix the leak
government
parts
spacecraft
design
scientists
pipeline
operations
JPL does �this now
can you buy this?
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
3
What kind of organization? (More than one way to segment it)
Invention
Utility
Visible
Ubiquity
instrument
Invisible
Visibility
Custom
Commercial
Industrial
sensor
optics
TTC
internet
cloud
raw data
customers
information
L1-L3 data
big data
calibration
tasking
marketing
launch
launch party!
supply mgmt
policy decisions
fix the leak
government
parts
spacecraft
design
scientists
pipeline
operations
Bus
Launch
Ops
Ground system
What about�this stuff?
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
4
Climate
Act
Decide
Orient
Observe
Purpose
Leadership
Doctrine
Political
Economic
Sociocultural
Technology
Team
Market
Capital
Technology
Know the actors
Know the game
Goodwill
Risk
Why of purpose
Why of movement
Fear
Greed
Plan
Partners
Investors
Allies
Landscape
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
IBM’s Cynefin: 5 decision-making domains
5
“Shoot first”
“The Devil is in the details”
“Turn the crank”
“Adapt”
| | | |
Chaotic
Complex
Complicated
Clear
Disorder
Enabling constraints
Loosely coupled
probe-sense-respond
Emergent practice
No constraints
Decoupled
act-sense-respond
Novel practice
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
sense-analyze-respond
Good practice
Tightly constrained
No degrees of freedom
sense-categorize-respond
Best practice
IBM’s Cynefin framework (1999) by Dave Snowden
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
6
| Chaotic | Complex | Complicated | Clear |
When | Cause? Effect? | Unknown unknowns Cause or effect? | Known unknowns Cause -> effect | Known knowns�f(cause) = effect |
Example | Business development | Markets, ecosystems, systems engineering | Engineering | Operation, management |
What | 1. Act 2. Sense 3. Respond | 1. Probe 2. Sense 3. Respond | 1. Sense 2. Analyze 3. Respond | 1. Sense 2. Categorize 3. Respond |
How | Act to see what happens & sense islands of stability. | Do experiments that are safe to fail. Actions may change the system unpredictably. | Observe effects, analyze causes, & use judgment to decide. | Observe effects & apply best practices. |
To do | Try to reframe as complex | Business model | Build it | Scale it |
Speed | As fast as possible | Delay = information becomes stale | Hurry = mistakes. Delay = cost. | One speed only |
IBM’s Cynefin framework (1999)
IBM’s Cynefin: strategy depends on certainty
Ambiguous
Certain
“Shoot first”
“The Devil is in the details”
“Turn the crank”
“Adapt”
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
7
“Shoot first”
“The Devil is in the details”
“Turn the crank”
“Adapt”
Methods evolve
Chaotic
Clear
Who wants to buy an imaging spectrometer?
Negotiate scope & cost
Design, build, integrate, test, launch
Operate s/c, distribute information products
Who wants the data?
Validate market
Demonstrate algorithms
Improve & optimize
Complex
Complicated
Certainty
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao
8
“Shoot first”
“The Devil is in the details”
“Turn the crank”
“Adapt”
Building an enterprise
Chaotic
Clear
Who wants to buy an imaging spectrometer?
Negotiate scope & cost
Design, build, integrate, test, launch
Operate s/c, distribute information products
Who wants the data?
Validate market
Demonstrate algorithms
What’s cloud computing?
Choose tech
Improve & optimize
Production
Prototype
Complex
Complicated
Build 12 more?
Find partners
Production
Design for manufacturing
Engineering
Identify
Explore
Develop
Earn
4 August 2022
Busdev in space by Shanti Rao