The IceCube Upgrade�Projections and Status

Juan Pablo Yáñez

NNN26 Workshop

Seoul, Korea

October 2026

​

j.p.yanez@ualberta.ca

IceCube pre-Upgrade

15 years of full detector data

2

The tens of GeV realm

3

GeV events in DeepCore

Color indicates time (red=early, blue=late). Sphere size is proportional to number of photons observed.

The tens of GeV realm

• Reconstructing flavor, direction and energy with tens of modules
• Data going down to a few GeV, albeit with limited resolution

4

GeV events in DeepCore

Color indicates time (red=early, blue=late). Sphere size is proportional to number of photons observed.

The tens of GeV realm

• Reconstructing flavor, direction and energy with tens of modules
• Data going down to a few GeV, albeit with limited resolution

5

GeV events in DeepCore

Color indicates time (red=early, blue=late). Sphere size is proportional to number of photons observed.

Latest DC results – Oscillations

6

Publication in preparation

Latest DC results – NSI’s

7

Publication in preparation

New – IceCube 2026

11.1 years of data

108k atmospheric neutrino events

Latest DC results – NSI’s

8

Publication in preparation

NSI solutions to the T2K/NOvA discrepancy

Chatterjee & Palazzo, PRL 126, 051801

Denton et al, PRL 126, 051802

11.1 years of data

108k atmospheric neutrino events

Latest DC results – Dark Matter

9

arXiv:2507.08457 [hep-ex]

Phys.Rev.D 113 (2026) 12, 122004

Galactic Center

The Sun

Latest DC results – “Low Energy” Astronomy

10

ApJL 946 L26 (2023)

The upgraded

IceCube detector

Deployed in 2025/2026 Pole season

11

12

The modules of the Upgrade

13

14

Credit: Yuya Makino, IceCube/NSF

15

IceCube Upgrade drill camp, 2024.�Credit: Michael Rayne/ASC-ARFF

16

Credit: Yuya Makino, IceCube/NSF

Credit: Kurt Studt, IceCube/NSF�

17

Credit: Yuya Makino, IceCube/NSF

18

Credit: Aya Ishihara, IceCube/NSF�

Credit: Yuya Makino, IceCube/NSF

Summary of deployment

• Drilled 6 of 7 planned holes
• Issue with drill on hole #6 🡪 hole #7 was not attempted
• Lost one string during re-freezing
• Big success after 15 years of no deep drilling at the SP!

​

• New instrumentation:
• 505 optical modules across five strings
• Majority are multi-PMT modules, other novel designs
• 64 special / calibration devices
• Cameras, collimated beams, isotropic light emitters, acoustic modules, a seismometer

​

19

First look at �IceCube Upgrade data

All images preliminary

20

Cameras

21

Cameras

22

POCAM during drop

23

IceCube Preliminary

In-situ angular acceptance

LOMLogger – stratigraphy measurements

• “Dust logger” ran on different holes in previous years
• LOMLogger dropped in instrumented holes, matching their results for display

24

Muons in the upgrade

25

IceCube Preliminary

Muons in the upgrade

26

IceCube Preliminary

Expected impact of

IceCube Upgrade data

After 3-5 years of operation

27

Expected response

• More low energy events & better reconstructions

​

28

Projections: standard oscillations

29

PRD 113 072009 (arXiv:2509.13066)

Projections: tau neutrino appearance

30

PRD 113 072009 (arXiv:2509.13066)

Projections: Neutrino Mass Ordering

31

PRD 113 072009 (arXiv:2509.13066)

Projections: Dark Matter

32

arXiv:2605.06600 [hep-ex]

Galactic Center

The Sun

Projections: Neutrino Sources

33

IceCube Preliminary

NGC 1068 & Galactic Plane – steady sources

Sensitivity to transients T=1000s

arXiv:2608.28395 [astro-ph.HE]

Summary & Outlook

• IceCube has received an upgrade
• 5 strings
• 505 new sensors
• 64 special / calibration devices
• Integration with IceCube DAQ ongoing

​

• Publications on physics potential
• Neutrino oscillations: PRD 113 072009 (arXiv:2509.13066)
• Dark matter: arXiv:2605.06600
• Neutrino astronomy: arXiv:2608.28395

​

​

34

35

Additional material

36

37

• Well suited for measuring flavor transitions from oscillations

38

arXiv:1509.08404 [hep-ex]

39

Atmospheric neutrino data

40

DeepCore IceCube

Color indicates time (red=early, blue=late). Sphere size is proportional to number of photons observed.

Atmospheric neutrino data

41

DeepCore IceCube

Color indicates time (red=early, blue=late). Sphere size is proportional to number of photons observed.

Atmospheric neutrino data

42

DeepCore IceCube

Color indicates time (red=early, blue=late). Sphere size is proportional to number of photons observed.

Analysis strategy for oscillations

43

Detector calibration

Physics result

Compute bin counts from MC

- Detector response & medium

- Flux and xsec uncertainties

- Physics hypothesis

44

Interaction types

• DeepCore

​

​

45

Improvements: simulation

46

Improvements: analysis

47

Results

48

Data/MC agreement post-fit in 1D

49

Data/MC in full space

50

Zoom in: regions with highest signal strength

51

NuTau signal

52

Likelihood profiles

53

Latest DC results – sterile states

54

arXiv:2407.01314 [hep-ex]

Parameterizing calibration information

• Detector-related systematics dominate uncertainty
• Multiple strategies to account for their impact
• MC production
• MC at multiple parameter combinations
• MC with smoothly varying parameters
• Parameterization
• Gradients obtained from binned MC expectation
• Event-wise weights from PDFs obtained with ML
• Latest addition:
• Birefringence in the ice crystals

55

Fischer, Naab, Trettin

arXiv:2305.02257

IceCube, PRD 108, 012014 (2023)

IceCube, The Cryosphere 18 (2024) 1, 75-102

Projections in L/E space

56

• Latest oscillation analysis, publication in preparation

57

Projections for Neutrino Mass Ordering

58

PRD 113 072009 (arXiv:2509.13066)