Sean Havel.

Nov 29, 2023.

Integrating Wargaming into the Canadian Operational Planning Process

An Experimental Approach

Central for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA)

Agenda

• A Short Epistemology of Wargaming
• The Canadian Operational Planning Process (OPP)
• Integrating Experimental Wargaming
• Conclusions and Thoughts

What are Wargames?

• Perla: “A warfare model or simulation that does not involve the operations of actual forces, and in which the flow of events shapes and is shaped by decisions made by human player or players.”
• Wargames are about:
• Competition;
• Narrative;
• Decisions.

​

Why Wargame?

• Indeterminacy: Those conditions so complex we require alternative means to deal with their imprecision.
• Complicated vs Complex Problems.
• Complicated: Known-Unknowns.
• Complex: Unknown-Unknowns.
• Wargaming is an unstructured tool for unstructured problems. Solutions emerge, they are not reasoned.
• Probe, Sense, Respond.

Wargames are ‘Language Games’

“The limits of my language mean the limits of my world.”

Ludwig Wittgenstein

Operational Planning Process (OPP)

• Structured process for determining the optimal methods of conducting operations.
• Limitations:
• Focus on seminars;
• Large size and scope of activity;
• No resources to iterate.

Integrating Experimental Wargaming

• Wargaming can work as a tool to analyze complicated problems in order to probe a complex one.
• Building complexity as we attain understanding.
• Explore, Test, Demonstrate.

Stage 2: Orientation, Exploration

• Aim is to build a shared understanding.
• Internalize scenarios and problems.
• Understand what is important and why.
• Seminar/Matrix Games.

ISIS Crisis Matrix Game

Stage 3: CoA Development, Testing

• Aim is to test and develop CoAs.
• Play out multiple CoAs, determine what works and why.
• Structured design, Free Kriegsspeil.

Littoral Commander

Stage 4: Plan Development, Demonstration

• Aim is to execute the developed plan.
• Accumulate lessons learnt from previous iterations, provide a final decision space.
• Structured design, Kriegsspeil.

Operational Wargame Series: Assassins Mace

Conclusions and Thoughts

• Wargaming is a tool, not the tool for understanding military problems.
• The design process of a wargame is as important as the execution.
• What experimental wargaming encourages:
• Broad participation;
• Problem solving;
• Structured discussion;
• Diverse potential solutions.
• Avoid critical mistakes by making them in a safe-to-fail environment.

Questions, Thoughts?