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THE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS ON ADOLESCENT & YOUTH HEALTH �

"The CARICOM Reality Of A Green Economy"

Presenter: Shonetta C. Lowe

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Outline

1.Introduction

2.Problem Statement

4.Methodology

5.Results and Discussion

6.Conclusion

7.Limitations and Future Research

8.References

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Background

CARICOM serves as a Conduit to facilitate trade agreements.

CARICOM countries share similar issues culturally, geographically, economically and historically.

CARICOM countries are all inherently vulnerable as small Island Developing States

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Introduction

CARICOM member states are not on a levelled playing field in achieving SDG targets by 2030 of a "Green Economy "

Small island developing states are generally poorly financed and subsidised in the realization of achieving environmental targets, treaties and agreements.

CARICOM countries are disproportionately restricted from making informed decisions dur to lack of available data in their local contexts to address issues.

CARICOM member states rely on extractive economies

Given the level of development of CARICOM countries in relation to the world, this research seeks to determine the likelihood of these member states to accomplish the established targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

While many larger developed nations are working assiduously to achieve those goals and targets, the playing field is not levelled when it comes to CARICOM, particularly since most member states have identified as SIDS (Biggs et al., 2014).

This information however as it relates to data availability, data sources and potentially new indicators remains critical inputs in detecting current gaps that exist in the pre-established global indicators as well as the depth of work required to localize those indicators to the context of CARICOM nations.

Given the current finding, where does CARICOM fit as a green economy?

According to (UNEP 2011), a Green Economy is considered to be one that results in improved well-being and social equity, simultaneously reducing the incidence of environmental risks and ecological scarcities. The concept of a green economy promotes economic growth and development while ensuring that resources and assets continue to provide those resources and ecological services, all of which a functional society depends upon. To achieve this working balance, innovation and investment must be catalysed to assist in underpinning sustained growth and economic opportunities for a country.

Poverty and environmental degradation are inextricably linked and is particularly evident where people's livelihood depends mainly on the surrounding natural resources. In developing countries like that of CARICOM, many people rely on natural resources for their basic needs. As such, the challenge remains unaddressed with respect to how those realities of a green economy can be met by generation of energy and food resources to ensure the basic needs of citizens are met, economic development while preserving the environment and in doing so meet the needs of future generations. �

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Methodology

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Methodology

Green Economy Indicators

Adjusted Net savings

Carbon Dioxide Emissions per capita

Forest Cover by percentage

Energy Consumption

The aforementioned indicators were identified for the purposes of this study due to the fact that the persistence of CO2 emissions are on the rise, particularly now that they comprise 75% of global GHG emissions (Akpan and Akpan, 2012) and many accounts unequivocally suggest that they are in agreement that the unfavourable consequences of climate change will be catastrophic to such vulnerable economies (Asongu, 2018b; Kifle, 2008; Shurig, 2015).

Given that this inextricable link has been made between CO2 emissions and climate change, it was considered a prime indicator to determine the trajectory of CARICOM countries towards becoming green economies.

Forest cover on the other hand plays a critical role in the transition towards a green economy since carbon is sequestered and stored in forest resources, forest products or stored for energy, instead of non-renewable fuels. Unsustainable use of forest resources not only expels trapped carbon into the atmosphere but unsustainable use of forest resources can ultimately result in fewer forests available to store carbon which can result in dangerously large amounts of carbon in our atmosphere and hence contributing to temperature rise and ultimately unpredictability of climate ("Measuring the Value of Forests in a Green Economy", 2018).

While forest cover is also an excellent indicator to determine the trajectory of a green economy, it is imperative that a country’s energy consumption is assessed as well to determine nationally, the extent at which a country utilizes or consumes energy. In a report titled “Green Economy Performance and Green Productivity Growth in China’s Cities: Measures and Policy Implication” it was underscored that improving energy and pollution emissions performance is necessary for decreasing energy use and is henceforth the central issue of green productivity and growth (Boqiang Lin, 2016). This was again further solidified in the very definition of green economy performance where it was defined as the efficiency energy usage and pollution emissions whereas green productivity growth was measured as the dynamic changes in energy and environmental performance (Boqiang Lin, 2016).

As such we can clearly see the undeniable link between energy consumption and becoming a green economy. To further ensure and improve accuracy of this study adjusted net savings were used to provide a holistic sense of country’s performance by providing a measure of a country’s sustainability by measuring the change in comprehensive wealth during a specified accounting period.

This is critical since it tests the extent to which resource rents and changes in human capital are balanced by net savings. Therefore, its role in this study will measure the difference in a specific quantity of assets with the exception of capital gains. If the country’s net savings reflect a positive result and includes a wide range of assets, this economic theory suggests the overall present value of human social welfare is increasing and is on a sustainable pathway towards a green economy (Bolt, Matete & Clemens, 2007).

Given this, these indicators were identified since it is strongly believed that they are inextricably linked to the determining subject matter on the CARICOM Reality of a Green Economy based on scientific literature on their importance in determining the trajectory of a green economy.

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Methodology: Forecasting

Adjusted net savings data captured from the world bank was arranged in excel in chronological order from 1970 to 2019 in an effort to forecast trends in sustainability for CARICOM countries. This was done using the time series variables opened in Gretl and where individual countries were selected and first tested for stationarity using the Unit Root test Augmented dicky-fuller. When it was established that there was stationarity meaning the values were below 0.1 the researcher then proceeded to do the forecasting exercise.

As such, the order of the auto-regression and the moving average was then found by using the correlogram feature where counts were done on the number of bars across giving the regressive auto order and the moving average order. All the necessary data for forecasting was acquired at this time, so progress was made towards the next step. The number of observations for the period calculated were included to be over a forty-year period which was reflected in the forecast range as well. The results produced both a graph and forecast table which was very useful in further featuring the data on excel charts for further modification. Researchers widely use this feature to predict outcomes based on historical trends (Balasmeh, 2019) specifically on that of climate predictions.

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Results

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Results

Most CARICOM countries have managed to maintain more than forty percent (40%) of their forest cover relative to their land area. Guyana notably, which is the largest of all the CARICOM countries managed to preserve approximately 87% of its forest due to its contractual commitment to combating climate change through sustainable forestry. While the forest cover for Guyana is the highest among other CARICOM countries, Belize is experiencing gradual decreases in their forest cover over a sixteen-year period, which may be indicative of unsustainable forestry practices while St. Vincent is experiencing steady increases in their forest cover. Contrastingly, Haiti has recorded an extremely low forest cover area of 3.7% over the past sixteen years and has shown no indication of increases. Trinidad and Tobago however, maintained consistent rates in deforestation despite their carbon intensive economy.

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Results

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Results

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Results

The following forecasting scenarios present data captured from CARICOM countries that speak to their historical, present-day and future projections and ultimately determine whether they are on a sustainable pathway. The ANS – upper bounds show an upward trajectory with 83% of these countries recording a growing rate between the years 2020 to 2042. Conversely, the lower bounds indicate that there could be a possibly declining trajectory for 66% of CARICOM countries. However, holistically when we take both the upper and lower bounds into consideration, the predicted values scenario, it is observed that Further, The forecasting shows that 50% of these countries show constant trends. Invariably only 33% of CARICOM countries will foresee an upward trajectory of the Adjusted Net savings throughout 2020-2042. Overall trends indicate that CARICOM countries will remain on a constant and stable trend moving along a horizontal pathway with a small number of countries showing promising improvements in their Adjusted Net Savings.

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Discussion

My data analysis on forest cover depicts that 46% of all CARICOM countries have not been able to sustainably manage its forest resources resulting in land clearing of more than 50% of the resource

ANS analysis revealed that only 33% of CARICOM countries will see an upward trajectory

International agreements do not cater to the intricacies of Small Island developing states and their unique struggles to adequately address and reach nationally determined contributions in keeping with the sustainability agenda

CARICOM countries have embarked on the path to becoming green economies in keeping with their commitments to several UN conventions on the environment and climate change. However, this quest will be different for individual CARICOM countries due to their unique makeup and nature of being small island developing states, making them vulnerable to economic shocks, natural disasters, etc. However, based on research, CARICOM countries boast low levels of CO2 emissions and do not contribute significantly to the overall generation of emissions. Unfortunately, even though that may be the case, CARICOM countries face the brunt of the effects of climate change and ultimately have to tailor their economies and sectors in alignment with the green economy sustainability pathway (Flemming, 2019).

1. Forests sequester CO2 in the atmosphere thus allowing for cleaner air and reduction in the impacts of CO2 emissions. The absence of forests removes that buffer that is intended to assist countries in alleviating some of the impacts that can be catastrophic as a result of excessive CO2 emissions. In the CARICOM countries today, every island has forest management policies for natural resource conservation, however most of those established policies have not had the intended impacts due to its failure to address underlying factors that drive deforestation which entail urban development, mining, fuelwood consumption, agriculture etc. Additionally, these policies lack the framework and support that should provide funding, improvements in technology and building of capacity. Today, policy makers are becoming more amenable to the concept of forest sustainability and the nexus between healthy forests and sustainable economic development (McGinley, 2007).

2. This revelation was interesting since many might perceive that based on previous indicators such as CO2 and energy consumption, as shown in results that the CARICOM countries would have a significantly higher ANS. However, it should be noted that sustainability also considers sustainable economics, which has been a struggle for most CARICOM countries, which has primarily been attributed to poor policy environment and framework and struggles to diversify economies. This highlights CARICOM country's battle in achieving weak sustainability where the overall stock of human capital and natural capital remains constant. Also noteworthy is the unconditional substitution between the various forms of capital permitted with weak sustainability. This as a result, means that natural resources may decline should human capital increase. If this capital is left to generate over time, creating intergenerational equity can propel a country to be on a sustainable development pathway. In the context of CARICOM countries, if we consider using capital generated from natural resources to accrue overtime, investments can be made to create the basis or the foundation for a green economy through reinvesting in clean energy and improved technologies to address the issues that make small island developing states vulnerable (Hartwick, John M, 1977).

�3. CARICOM countries are by and large a rare gem and paradise in our world with a bounty of natural resources, biological diversity, coral reefs, ecological tourism and rich culture. CARICOM countries have even managed to maintain its natural beauty while being one of the lowest CO2 emitters and energy consumers. However, it is feared that CARICOM countries may not be able to sustain itself economically in the future considering its current approach to realizing the dream of a green economy. However, these CARICOM countries are not entirely to be blamed since there are many socio-economic contributors to this plight. Most CARICOM countries have taken action to address these issues through their commitments to the RIO Convention, The Paris Agreement, The Stockholm Convention, and other International and local strategies developed to aid in its transition. However, many of these agreements do not cater to the intricacies of Small Island developing states and their unique struggles to adequately address and reach nationally determined contributions in keeping with the sustainability agenda. More considerations need to be given to respective regions as well as the economic, policy support and human capacity to aid such islands with fragile economies to realistically achieve the goals and targets set so that the benefits of having a green economy will not only be realized by first world countries but the world at large.

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Limitations

Lack of availability of fata to make conclusive analysis and judgement on socio economic issues among CARICOM countries.
Lack of studies done for some indicators for CARICOM Countries

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Conclusion

The empirical evidence presented based on ARIMA modelling forecasts that only 33% of CARICOM countries will see a slight upward trajectory along the sustainability pathway

most countries have ratified treaties and are parties and signatories to many conventions, CARICOM member states are vulnerable islands. They should be considered and strategically planned for within that context

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Recommendations

Localized Policy Mechanisms unique to each country

Diversification of Economies

Investment in research, Data collection and Technology

Resource mobilization through lobbying for support from the bodies that forged International conventions such as Rio Earth Summit, Parris Agreement etc.

Deeper focus on weak sustainability by investing in natural resources to gather rents

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References

Agenda 21. (2021). Retrieved 5 June 2021, from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/outcomedocuments/agenda21
Ali Soytas, M. (n.d.). SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT From Millennium 2015 to Sustainable Development Goals 2030 Ergul Haliscelik.
Are, W. H. O. W. E. (2021). Pillars of Integration. July 1973, 1–5.
Asongu, S. A. (2018). ICT, openness and CO2 emissions in Africa. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 9351-9359.
Balasmeh, O. A. (2019). Trend analysis and ARIMA modeling for forecasting precipitation pattern in Wadi Shueib catchment area in Jordan. Arabian Journal of Geosciences.
Brissett, N. O. M. (2018). Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Caribbean: Unrealizable promises? Progress in Development Studies, 18(1), 18–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/1464993417734440

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References

Caribbean countries reduce their carbon emissions. (2018). Retrieved 6 June 2021, from https://intraacpgccaplus.org/story/caribbean-countries-reduce-their-carbon-emissions
Dickens, C., Smakhtin, V., McCartney, M., O'Brien, G., & Dahir, L. (2019). Defining and quantifying national-level targets, indicators and benchmarks for management of natural resources to achieve the sustainable development goals. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020462
Gil, J. D. B., Reidsma, P., Giller, K., Todman, L., Whitmore, A., & van Ittersum, M. (2019). Sustainable development goal 2: Improved targets and indicators for agriculture and food security. Ambio, 48(7), 685–698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1101-4
Manager, D. (2016). Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy. Retrieved 5 July 2021, from https://www.lcds.gov.gy/
Griggs, D., Smith, M. S., Rockström, J., Öhman, M. C., Gaffney, O., Glaser, G., Kanie, N., Noble, I., Steffen, W., & Shyamsundar, P. (2014). An integrated framework for sustainable development goals. Ecology and Society, 19(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07082-190449

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References

Hak, T., & Moldan, B. (2007). Sustainability Indicators: A Scientific Assessment. SCOPE 67 BRAINPOoL: Bringing Alternative Indicators into Policy View project SCOPE Indicators of Sustainable Development View project. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258261619
Hák, T., Janoušková, S., & Moldan, B. (2016). Sustainable Development Goals: A need for relevant indicators. Ecological Indicators, 60, 565–573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.003
Hassell, T. A., Hutton, M. T., & Beverley Barnett, D. (2020). Civil society promoting government accountability for health equity in the Caribbean: The Healthy Caribbean Coalition. Revista Panamericana de Salud Publica/Pan American Journal of Public Health, 44. https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2020.79

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The End