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Thursday, September 19, 2024

Thursday, June 18th, 2026

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Welcome!

Violet Kopp (she/her)

Organizing Program Manager, East Coast

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REMINDER:

This call is off the record �& closed to the press

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Tell us where

you’re joining from!

Use the chat to introduce yourselves!

Please include your name, pronouns, group, and city.

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Community

Agreements

Our goal is to create and foster �a safe, inclusive, and equitable environment for our volunteers, �the greater Swing Left community, and the voters we contact. ��Please keep these agreements in mind when approaching your work today.

  • Organize to elect Democrats chosen by their community.�
  • Focus on inclusivity and respect.�
  • Build a sustainable and a strong progressive movement.�
  • Approach our work with humility.�
  • Respect each other’s time �and resources.

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Zoom tips

Mute�To make sure everyone can hear today’s call, we’ll keep you muted today unless you’ve been recognized.

Chat�Use the Chat function for questions or comments—look for it at the bottom of your Zoom window.

Got questions? �Type them in to the Chat and we’ll capture them for the Q&A.

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Agenda

  • Welcome
  • National Updates
  • How Swing Left/�Vote Forward’s Research Team is innovating �voter contactwith Blair Read

  • Next steps

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National updates

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Welcome to

Zack Mooney! they/them

Swing Left’s new �Voter Contact Director

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High Traffic Canvass:

Ground Truth

  • Bring GT conversations to the streets!�
  • For busy public spaces in targets�
  • New script and guide available now

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High Traffic Canvass:

Summer Recruitment

  • Summer means festivals, green markets, fairs, and events�
  • In the Grassroots Leaders Toolkit
    • High traffic canvass guide
    • Mobilize template
    • Order free recruitment cards!

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High Traffic Canvass Spotlight:

Ruth Wattenberg, MobilizingDC4US

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What kind of high traffic canvass should I do?

Ground Truth

Volunteer Recruitment

Where are you located?

In-target district

In or out of target district

Where is your high traffic canvass?

Areas with likely swing voters (fairs, purple towns)

Areas with likely Dems (pride, protests, blue towns)

Who is your audience?

Potential Democratic voters

Potential group volunteers

What are your goals?

Elect Democrats!

Grow your group (to elect Democrats!)

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Listen To Win 2.0

  • Build on empathic listening skills training from LTW 1.0!�
  • More oriented toward persuasion for the next phase of Ground Truth�
  • New slides, guide, �and Mobilize template available now

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Updated Organizing Roadmap

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Questions?

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Swing Left and Vote Forward

Data & Research Program

Blair Read, PhD

Director of Data and Research

Karyn Vilbig, PhD

Senior Research Scientist

Phong Le, PhD

Senior Data & Research Analyst

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What we do

Run randomized experiments and descriptive studies to learn about the effectiveness of Swing Left’s and Vote Forward’s voter contact tactics

D+R highlight reel:

  • Run 29 RCTs with Vote Forward
  • Led research that resulted in the Malchow Award for research transparency
  • Publishes results, even when it’s hard

Swing Left’s Data and Research Team

Blair Read

Karyn Vilbig

Phong Le

Who we are

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RCTs 101

  • Compares turnout across voters who are similar in every way, except that one group experienced the tactic (Vote Forward letters)�
  • Voters are randomly assigned to groups�
  • Most rigorous way to measure impact

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Vote Forward partners with volunteers �to take evidence-driven, high-impact actions to strengthen our democracy �by building trust in government and increasing voter participation.

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Innovating since 2017

Together, we’ve built one of �the largest distributed volunteer programs in American politics.

285K+Volunteers powering this work

29RCTs conducted �& shared publicly

40M+Handwritten letters sent to voters

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  • Letter-writing remains effective, and there is a time and place for this tactic. This is especially true when we reach �out to people who are not used to receiving our letters, and when we adopt campaigns with new approaches. �
  • We continue learning new, important lessons from regular testing. �
  • And it doesn’t look like we’re seeing �any backlash to continuing to send �letters to voters.

Learnings

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New Tactics

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Many people are struggling right now and looking for support. Millions of eligible Americans never access the benefits they qualify for. Vote Forward volunteers can help close that gap—and we can rigorously test whether doing so changes how those people engage with democracy over time.

Benefits �Connection Pilot

SOCIAL

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We're running letter-writing campaigns in a curated slate of state-level races—exactly the kind of low-turnout, low-profile elections where Vote Forward letters have the strongest evidence of turning out voters.

Down-Ballot Election Integrity Letters

POLITICAL

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Every cycle, millions of newly registered young voters intend to cast their first ballot—and a large number never do, because the process is more confusing than it should be. Our New Voter Guides combine a handwritten message from a volunteer with the practical tools first-time voters actually need: how to vote, when to vote, what to bring.

PA New Voter Guides

SOCIAL

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When a canvasser knocks on someone's door and has a real conversation about what's going on in their life, that conversation shouldn't end there. Through our 501(c)4 arm, we're testing whether a follow-up letter, referencing what was actually said at the door, can turn out votes for pro-democracy candidates.

Ground Truth Civic Action Follow Up Letters

POLITICAL

Coming soon!

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Ground Truth Research Agenda

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Swing Left developed Ground Truth based on two primary hypotheses about how to help win votes for Democrats

Empathetic face-to-face conversations can win over people who don't typically vote for Democrats.

Deep listening conversations can serve as a new kind of public opinion research, collecting insights from voter conversations and turning them into actionable information that helps Democratic candidates and leaders strengthen constituent relationships and improve their messaging.

Hypothesis 2:

Hypothesis 1:

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Translating this into a learning agenda

Convert Ground Truth hypotheses and programmatic decisions into feasible research.

Formulate Key Questions

Analyze Data and Release Actionable Insights

Decide which questions are feasible and important to prioritize for this cycle.

Assess Feasibility and Establish Priorities

Analyze data and release actionable insights to generate key learnings for this cycle and beyond.

Cultivate Strategic Partnerships

Embed Research in Program Operations

Embed data collection and research protocols directly into field operations.

Determine promising areas for research collaborations across the ecosystem.

Embed research studies in program operations to continuously learn what works and how to improve program operations

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Key Research Projects

Research Question

Can Ground Truth canvassing conversations…

  • Persuade (right-leaning) voters to vote for Democrats this cycle?
  • Persuade infrequent (left-leaning) voters to turn out on Election Day?

Randomized controlled trial

Research Question

Can follow-up, civic engagement letters to voters contacted by Ground Truth…

  • Persuade (right-leaning) voters to vote for Democrats this cycle?
  • Persuade infrequent (left-leaning) voters to turn out on Election Day?

Randomized controlled trial

Research Question

How can we efficiently analyze Ground Truth conversation data at scale?

Data science discovery

Research Question

How do we recruit, retain, and grow our volunteer base?

Behavioral mapping

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Analyzing Ground Truth conversations at scale

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We use a custom-built AI tool to turn deep canvassing conversations into strategic intelligence at scale.

Rapid iteration and experimentation makes this data more actionable as we learn how to best collect and harness it.

Our data program is built on a new type �of voter intelligence, powered by volunteers

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With the help of our volunteers, we can turn voter contact into public opinion insights

Understand the issues that are affecting people’s lives.

Measure voter partisan attitudes and behaviors.

Detect salient political narratives.

Record key issues that voters are surfacing during the conversations to understand predominant policy concerns.

Break voters down into different personas based on the political beliefs they share during the conversation, including partisan support and voting behaviors.

Political narratives help us tell a story that captures how everyday Americans are thinking about politics and the direction of our country.

Examples

Immigration and Border

Cost of Living and Inflation

International Conflicts

Healthcare Access and Costs

Examples

Core Democratic supporter

Core Republican supporter

Aligned but frustrated

Disillusioned but open

Unaligned but frustrated

Examples

Rigged game: Politics is a “rigged game” that serves the elite and harms ordinary people.

Alienated by the options: Voters want a middle ground and feel like both parties are extreme.

Erosion of norms and values: Our country is on the brink of a dystopian dictatorship.

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The Ground Truth Model: Every Door

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Example: Persuadable Voter

Category: Dissatisfied Republicans

Izabel

  • 38-year-old Latina woman
  • Registered Republican in a must-flip target

Because of her party registration, Izabel would have been skipped by any other field program. By knocking on her door, we were able to learn that her vote is in reach and even what issue (health care) is likely to be most persuasive.

From our volunteer's notes: ��“Izabel is a registered Republican, but thinks both parties are crooked. She's unhappy with the handling of the Epstein files and the Iran war. The issue she cares most about is healthcare. She can't afford insurance even though she's working. Her mother was just diagnosed with cancer and Izabel and her siblings are covering her care while she applies for Medi-Cal. Izabel is very likely to vote, but unsure if she will vote for the Republican, and will look at who the candidates are and what policy positions they have.”

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Example: Narratives & Emotional Activation

Black man providing for family

  • 25-year-old Black man
  • Unaffiliated voter, priority district

From our volunteer's notes: ��Voter said he has 2 to 3 jobs and is working �7 days a week. He is living with his parents, brother, and sister because he can't afford to live on his own.

He voted for Harris and says “I was stood up.” He says he ”was cheated” by her not winning and doesn’t plan to vote again.”

Correlates with feelings of isolation, hopelessness, low political efficacy, and anger.

Voters expressing concerns over a rigged system are:

  • Younger on average
  • More likely to be male
  • More likely to be non-white

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(How) do voice memos get us all this?

A thorough voice note will contain enough information about the conversation that we can really understand the voter’s perspectives, in as much of their own words as possible.

A good note will…

Share the voter’s own voice and lived experiences

Convey clear emotional tone and resonance

Identify barriers, conflictedness, and openings

Have enough information that a downstream user can take action

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Mapping the

Volunteer Experience

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Ground Truth is powered by volunteers

Partisan Lean: +0.36

Recruitment

How can we attract new volunteers?

Success requires that we recruit and retain large numbers of volunteers and that we empower volunteers to successfully recruit others to take action.

Retention

How can get previous volunteers to come back?

Growth

How can we empower volunteers to recruit others to take action?

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Potential approaches

Focus groups or interviews

  • What motivates people to volunteer in the first place?
  • Why do people choose to return or not?

Partisan Lean: +0.36

Analyzing internal metrics

  • How many volunteers come back a second time?
  • How many times do people volunteer before deciding to host?

Marketing tests

  • Which recruitment messages perform best?

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Questions?

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Action items

  • Recruit volunteers:
    • High traffic canvass
    • Listen to Win 2.0�
  • Talk to voters with Ground Truth:
    • Canvass
    • Phone Bank
    • High Traffic Canvass

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Next Grassroots Leaders Call

Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 5pm PT/8pm ET

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2026 Grassroots Leaders Calls

swingleft.org/grassroots-leaders-calls

Thursday, July 16

8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT

Thursday, August 20

8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT

Thursday, Sept 17

8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT

Thursday, October 15

8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT

Thursday, November 19

8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT

Thursday, December 17

8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT

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