Thursday, September 19, 2024
Thursday, June 18th, 2026
Welcome!
Violet Kopp (she/her)
Organizing Program Manager, East Coast
REMINDER:
This call is off the record �& closed to the press
Tell us where
you’re joining from!
Use the chat to introduce yourselves!
Please include your name, pronouns, group, and city.
Community
Agreements
Our goal is to create and foster �a safe, inclusive, and equitable environment for our volunteers, �the greater Swing Left community, and the voters we contact. ��Please keep these agreements in mind when approaching your work today.
Zoom tips
Mute�To make sure everyone can hear today’s call, we’ll keep you muted today unless you’ve been recognized.
Chat�Use the Chat function for questions or comments—look for it at the bottom of your Zoom window.
Got questions? �Type them in to the Chat and we’ll capture them for the Q&A.
Agenda
National updates
Welcome to
Zack Mooney! they/them
Swing Left’s new �Voter Contact Director
High Traffic Canvass:
Ground Truth
High Traffic Canvass:
Summer Recruitment
High Traffic Canvass Spotlight:
Ruth Wattenberg, MobilizingDC4US
What kind of high traffic canvass should I do?
| Ground Truth | Volunteer Recruitment |
Where are you located? | In-target district | In or out of target district |
Where is your high traffic canvass? | Areas with likely swing voters (fairs, purple towns) | Areas with likely Dems (pride, protests, blue towns) |
Who is your audience? | Potential Democratic voters | Potential group volunteers |
What are your goals? | Elect Democrats! | Grow your group (to elect Democrats!) |
Listen To Win 2.0
Updated Organizing Roadmap
Questions?
Swing Left and Vote Forward
Data & Research Program
Blair Read, PhD
Director of Data and Research
Karyn Vilbig, PhD
Senior Research Scientist
Phong Le, PhD
Senior Data & Research Analyst
What we do
Run randomized experiments and descriptive studies to learn about the effectiveness of Swing Left’s and Vote Forward’s voter contact tactics
D+R highlight reel:
Swing Left’s Data and Research Team
Blair Read
Karyn Vilbig
Phong Le
Who we are
RCTs 101
Vote Forward partners with volunteers �to take evidence-driven, high-impact actions to strengthen our democracy �by building trust in government and increasing voter participation.
Innovating since 2017
Together, we’ve built one of �the largest distributed volunteer programs in American politics.
285K+�Volunteers powering this work
29�RCTs conducted �& shared publicly
40M+�Handwritten letters sent to voters
Learnings
New Tactics
Many people are struggling right now and looking for support. Millions of eligible Americans never access the benefits they qualify for. Vote Forward volunteers can help close that gap—and we can rigorously test whether doing so changes how those people engage with democracy over time.
Benefits �Connection Pilot
SOCIAL
We're running letter-writing campaigns in a curated slate of state-level races—exactly the kind of low-turnout, low-profile elections where Vote Forward letters have the strongest evidence of turning out voters.
Down-Ballot Election Integrity Letters
POLITICAL
Every cycle, millions of newly registered young voters intend to cast their first ballot—and a large number never do, because the process is more confusing than it should be. Our New Voter Guides combine a handwritten message from a volunteer with the practical tools first-time voters actually need: how to vote, when to vote, what to bring.
PA New Voter Guides
SOCIAL
When a canvasser knocks on someone's door and has a real conversation about what's going on in their life, that conversation shouldn't end there. Through our 501(c)4 arm, we're testing whether a follow-up letter, referencing what was actually said at the door, can turn out votes for pro-democracy candidates.
Ground Truth Civic Action Follow Up Letters
POLITICAL
Coming soon!
Ground Truth Research Agenda
Swing Left developed Ground Truth based on two primary hypotheses about how to help win votes for Democrats
Empathetic face-to-face conversations can win over people who don't typically vote for Democrats.
Deep listening conversations can serve as a new kind of public opinion research, collecting insights from voter conversations and turning them into actionable information that helps Democratic candidates and leaders strengthen constituent relationships and improve their messaging.
Hypothesis 2:
Hypothesis 1:
Translating this into a learning agenda
Convert Ground Truth hypotheses and programmatic decisions into feasible research.
Formulate Key Questions
Analyze Data and Release Actionable Insights
Decide which questions are feasible and important to prioritize for this cycle.
Assess Feasibility and Establish Priorities
Analyze data and release actionable insights to generate key learnings for this cycle and beyond.
Cultivate Strategic Partnerships
Embed Research in Program Operations
Embed data collection and research protocols directly into field operations.
Determine promising areas for research collaborations across the ecosystem.
Embed research studies in program operations to continuously learn what works and how to improve program operations
Key Research Projects
Research Question Can Ground Truth canvassing conversations…
| Randomized controlled trial |
Research Question Can follow-up, civic engagement letters to voters contacted by Ground Truth…
| Randomized controlled trial |
Research Question How can we efficiently analyze Ground Truth conversation data at scale? | Data science discovery |
Research Question How do we recruit, retain, and grow our volunteer base? | Behavioral mapping |
Analyzing Ground Truth conversations at scale
We use a custom-built AI tool to turn deep canvassing conversations into strategic intelligence at scale.
Rapid iteration and experimentation makes this data more actionable as we learn how to best collect and harness it.
Our data program is built on a new type �of voter intelligence, powered by volunteers
With the help of our volunteers, we can turn voter contact into public opinion insights
Understand the issues that are affecting people’s lives. | Measure voter partisan attitudes and behaviors. | Detect salient political narratives. |
Record key issues that voters are surfacing during the conversations to understand predominant policy concerns. | Break voters down into different personas based on the political beliefs they share during the conversation, including partisan support and voting behaviors. | Political narratives help us tell a story that captures how everyday Americans are thinking about politics and the direction of our country. |
Examples Immigration and Border Cost of Living and Inflation International Conflicts Healthcare Access and Costs | Examples Core Democratic supporter Core Republican supporter Aligned but frustrated Disillusioned but open Unaligned but frustrated | Examples Rigged game: Politics is a “rigged game” that serves the elite and harms ordinary people. Alienated by the options: Voters want a middle ground and feel like both parties are extreme. Erosion of norms and values: Our country is on the brink of a dystopian dictatorship. |
The Ground Truth Model: Every Door
Example: Persuadable Voter
Category: Dissatisfied Republicans
Izabel
Because of her party registration, Izabel would have been skipped by any other field program. By knocking on her door, we were able to learn that her vote is in reach and even what issue (health care) is likely to be most persuasive.
From our volunteer's notes: ��“Izabel is a registered Republican, but thinks both parties are crooked. She's unhappy with the handling of the Epstein files and the Iran war. The issue she cares most about is healthcare. She can't afford insurance even though she's working. Her mother was just diagnosed with cancer and Izabel and her siblings are covering her care while she applies for Medi-Cal. Izabel is very likely to vote, but unsure if she will vote for the Republican, and will look at who the candidates are and what policy positions they have.”
Example: Narratives & Emotional Activation
Black man providing for family
From our volunteer's notes: ��“Voter said he has 2 to 3 jobs and is working �7 days a week. He is living with his parents, brother, and sister because he can't afford to live on his own.
He voted for Harris and says “I was stood up.” He says he ”was cheated” by her not winning and doesn’t plan to vote again.”
Correlates with feelings of isolation, hopelessness, low political efficacy, and anger.
Voters expressing concerns over a rigged system are:
(How) do voice memos get us all this?
A thorough voice note will contain enough information about the conversation that we can really understand the voter’s perspectives, in as much of their own words as possible.
A good note will…
Share the voter’s own voice and lived experiences
Convey clear emotional tone and resonance
Identify barriers, conflictedness, and openings
Have enough information that a downstream user can take action
✔
✔
✔
✔
Mapping the
Volunteer Experience
Ground Truth is powered by volunteers
Partisan Lean: +0.36
Recruitment
How can we attract new volunteers?
Success requires that we recruit and retain large numbers of volunteers and that we empower volunteers to successfully recruit others to take action.
Retention
How can get previous volunteers to come back?
Growth
How can we empower volunteers to recruit others to take action?
Potential approaches
Focus groups or interviews
Partisan Lean: +0.36
Analyzing internal metrics
Marketing tests
Questions?
Action items
Next Grassroots Leaders Call
Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 5pm PT/8pm ET
2026 Grassroots Leaders Calls
swingleft.org/grassroots-leaders-calls
Thursday, July 16
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Thursday, August 20
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Thursday, Sept 17
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Thursday, October 15
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Thursday, November 19
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Thursday, December 17
8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Join our volunteer Slack channel!
Thanks for joining us!
Link to join Slack
Slack help guide