Week 8, Lecture 1:
Hypothesis testing
Research questions and hypotheses
Research topic: The general scientific issue your study relates to, sometimes posed as a question
Research question: The specific question your study is designed to answer, posed as a question
Research hypothesis (prediction): Your proposed answer to the research question, a testable claim, posed as an assertion
Statistical hypothesis: The predicted outcomes of your statistical analysis, based on your research hypothesis and study design, posed as an assertion
Credibility
Estimator
Construct�(theory)
Association of specific expertises with specific social groups
Preference for adults over children during social learning
Preference for past-credible over past-noncredible speakers during word learning
Measurements (value systems)�Critically linked to a hypothesis based on the construct
Operationalization (value assignment)
Whose novel label did the child select?
Adult: adult�Child: child
Other: other
Variables (data)
“Adult” selections
Ptcp 1: 0.75 [0,1,1,1]
Ptcp 2: 1.00 [1,1,1,1]
Ptcp 3: 0.50 [1,0,0,1]
…
adu_sel ~ condition� DV ~ IV�outcome ~ predictor
Research questions and hypotheses
Research topic: How do children estimate informant credibility?
Research question: “Which of these two cues to a speaker’s credibility—reliability or age—do 3- and 4-year-old children find more compelling?”
Research hypothesis (prediction): 3- and 4-year-old children will find reliable speakers more compelling than older speakers, only preferring older speakers when all else is equal
Statistical hypothesis: Adult selections will be highest and higher than chance in the both-reliable and adult-reliable conditions and child selections will be highest and higher than chance in the child-reliable conditions. Unclear hypothesis for both-unreliable condition.
Null hypotheses
Null hypothesis: The set of outcomes where your prediction is not true, often a lack of an effect/difference that you have hypothesized
Jaswal & Neely:
Statistical hypothesis: Adult selections will be highest and higher than chance in the both-reliable and adult-reliable conditions and child selections will be highest and higher than chance in the child-reliable conditions. Unclear hypothesis for both-unreliable condition.
Null hypothesis: Selection of the child or adult is purely random and unaffected by condition—responses will be at chance and there are no differences in response between across conditions..
Errors
Type 1: Rejecting a true null. Detecting a difference that’s not there. False positive.
Type 2: Retaining a null that is not true. Not detecting a difference that is there. Misses
And now… the cutest introduction to p-values, courtesy of Allison Horst
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
@allison_horst�https://twitter.com/allison_horst/status/1216411185240690688
Next time
Last set of group presentations! Spontaneous imitation:
Due: Reading questions and (for groups 4–6) paper presentations