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Week 8, Lecture 1:

Hypothesis testing

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Research questions and hypotheses

Research topic: The general scientific issue your study relates to, sometimes posed as a question

Research question: The specific question your study is designed to answer, posed as a question

Research hypothesis (prediction): Your proposed answer to the research question, a testable claim, posed as an assertion

Statistical hypothesis: The predicted outcomes of your statistical analysis, based on your research hypothesis and study design, posed as an assertion

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Credibility

Estimator

Construct�(theory)

Association of specific expertises with specific social groups

Preference for adults over children during social learning

Preference for past-credible over past-noncredible speakers during word learning

Measurements (value systems)�Critically linked to a hypothesis based on the construct

Operationalization (value assignment)

Whose novel label did the child select?

Adult: adult�Child: child

Other: other

Variables (data)

“Adult” selections

Ptcp 1: 0.75 [0,1,1,1]

Ptcp 2: 1.00 [1,1,1,1]

Ptcp 3: 0.50 [1,0,0,1]

adu_sel ~ condition� DV ~ IV�outcome ~ predictor

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Research questions and hypotheses

Research topic: How do children estimate informant credibility?

Research question: “Which of these two cues to a speaker’s credibility—reliability or age—do 3- and 4-year-old children find more compelling?”

Research hypothesis (prediction): 3- and 4-year-old children will find reliable speakers more compelling than older speakers, only preferring older speakers when all else is equal

Statistical hypothesis: Adult selections will be highest and higher than chance in the both-reliable and adult-reliable conditions and child selections will be highest and higher than chance in the child-reliable conditions. Unclear hypothesis for both-unreliable condition.

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Null hypotheses

Null hypothesis: The set of outcomes where your prediction is not true, often a lack of an effect/difference that you have hypothesized

Jaswal & Neely:

Statistical hypothesis: Adult selections will be highest and higher than chance in the both-reliable and adult-reliable conditions and child selections will be highest and higher than chance in the child-reliable conditions. Unclear hypothesis for both-unreliable condition.

Null hypothesis: Selection of the child or adult is purely random and unaffected by condition—responses will be at chance and there are no differences in response between across conditions..

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Errors

Type 1: Rejecting a true null. Detecting a difference that’s not there. False positive.

Type 2: Retaining a null that is not true. Not detecting a difference that is there. Misses

And now… the cutest introduction to p-values, courtesy of Allison Horst

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Next time

Last set of group presentations! Spontaneous imitation:

  • Endedijk, H. M., Cillessen, A. H. N., Cox, R. F. A., Bekkering, H., & Hunnius, S. (2015). The role of child characteristics and peer experiences in the development of peer cooperation. Social Development, 24(3), 521–540. (JA) (pdf)
  • Seehagen, S., & Herbert, J. S. (2011). Infant imitation from televised peer and adult models. Infancy, 16(2), 113–136. (JA) (pdf)
  • Zmyj, N., Daum, M. M., Prinz, W., Nielsen, M., & Aschersleben, G. (2012). Fourteen-month-olds’ imitation of differently aged models. Infant and Child Development, 21(3), 250–266. (JA) (pdf)

Due: Reading questions and (for groups 4–6) paper presentations