Case Study�‘Northern’ Atlantic cod II

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Lecture # 11

Management at inappropriate scales

• 200 mile limit not enough
• Northern cod collapse 2J3KL

• Do management zones match

population structure??

Faith that CPUE was a true measure of abundance

CPUE going up as stock does down!

Same!

Scientific inquiry and government control

• In general fisheries scientists conduct stock assessments to estimate safe harvest levels (e.g. Total Allowable Catch)
• Managers decide on the final harvest level, decide when and where to fish, who gets to fish, etc…
• In Canada, management decisions done at the Federal Minister level in Ottawa

Scientists posed three options in 1990

• A TAC of 100,000 tons (a conservation target)
• A TAC of 150,000 tons
• A TAC of 170,000 tons
• The Minister of Fisheries and Oceans (A Newfoundlander in Ottawa) set the TAC at 190,000 tons
• The moratorium was announced the next year

There were voices in the dark calling out!

• George Winters DFO scientist concluded that the stock had been overestimated in abundance and thus exploitation rate estimated too low
• Overestimation result of using catch data to infer abundance and the use of that data in the assessment procedures (Virtual Population Analysis)
• In line with assessments by Ram Myers (of Myers and Worm!) and Jeff Hutchings (Hutchings and Myers were ostensibly fired from DFO and took faculty positions at Dalhousie University)

https://youtu.be/0sFmT8IXGhw

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http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2048663619820

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/1.3241762

Newfoundland was a fishing-dependent society

The consequences of the moratorium on society?

http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Employment_Fishing_Industry.pdf

The consequences of the moratorium on society?

http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistics/Labour/PDF/Employment_Fishing_Industry.pdf

Estimated another 20,000 lost jobs due to indirect effects (service sector, construction, etc…)

Human migrations

Most fish dependent regions

Note: the exodus predated the moratorium!

Hamilton and Butler 2001

“Long ago they all moved to the cities”

St. John’s (capital city)

The inshore fishery declined before the offshore

Many took jobs in the ‘tar sands’ of Alberta

Huge increases in government assistance

• In early 1990s 45% of Newfoundland towns had 100% of residents that were claiming unemployment insurance

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• Massive increase in ‘make work’ projects for mimimum 11-weeks in order to claim UI for the rest of the year

Increase of the oil sector

And fishing continues…but for different targets

Shrimp populations exploded!

And crab

The value of NL fisheries has increased dramatically!!

So what is the problem?

Regulations related to boat size

Poorer fishermen forced to specialize in inshore cod fishery, more affluent fishermen that could afford larger boats could diversify

Wealth concentrated among fewer fishermen

Wealth disparity increased

The poor were even worse-off after the moratorium while many of the large-boat owners became millionaires fishing cod & shrimp

Back to the cod

< 1% of virgin biomass!

Finally signs of rebuilding starting in 2007

< 1% of virgin biomass!

< 3.5% of virgin biomass!

Moratorium

Evidence of rebuilding…but what is our baseline??

Most up to date stock status from DFO

https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/40966458.pdf

https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/40966458.pdf

Still FAR from recovered

DFO’s conclusions

Under current ecosystem conditions and recent levels of catch, the lack of increase in cod survey indices since 2016 suggests that stock growth may have stalled. Consistency with the DFO decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach requires that removals from all sources must be kept at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the critical zone.

https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/40966458.pdf

Why so slow to recover??

Fishing never totally stopped

• Nose and tail of the Grand Banks still open to Canadian and foreign fleets of trawlers, which continued to pound the remaining aggregations there.
• At the same time very large overwintering aggregations began to appear onshore (these had not been observed before)
• A small fishery was initiated in 1998 on these populations, catch rates declined (which was taken as declining biomass/abundance) and the fishery closed in 2003
• Catches in 2003-2005 were limited to by-catch in the winter flounder fishery (which some argue was a targeted by-catch fishery)
• A ‘stewardship’ fishery (small scale inshore fishery with benthic gillnets and long-line) and a ‘recreational’ fishery started in 2006 and continues until present

Fishing never totally stopped

• Nose and tail of the Grand Banks still open to Canadian and foreign fleets of trawlers, which continued to pound the remaining aggregations there.
• At the same time very large overwintering aggregations began to appear onshore (these had not been observed before)
• A small fishery was initiated in 1998 on these populations, catch rates declined (which was taken as declining biomass/abundance) and the fishery closed in 2003
• Catches in 2003-2005 were limited to by-catch in the winter flounder fishery (which some argue was a targeted by-catch fishery)
• A ‘stewardship’ fishery (small scale inshore fishery with benthic gillnets and long-line) and a ‘recreational’ fishery started in 2006 and continues until present

Tagging studies indicate 4-6% exploitation rate , which cannot explain the lack of recovery (but it ain’t helping!)

Ecosystem change

Increase in predators

Ecosystem change

Increase in predators

Weak/no convincing evidence

Ecosystem change

Lack of prey (capelin hypothesis)

Ecosystem change

Lack of prey (capelin hypothesis)

Fishing induced evolution

‘Darwinian debt’

Olsen et al. 2004

Erosion of the population portfolio, limited resilience

Olsen et al. 2008

Ultimately, the causes for the slow recovery are unclear