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Dr. Nuala Cowan, World Bank

Dr. Patricia Solís, ASU and Dr. Jennings Anderson, Meta

Understanding Risk

Analyses and Indices

YOUTHMAPPERS Workshop June 9-18, 2024

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Understanding Risk Analyses

Dr. Nuala Cowan

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What is Risk?

In the context of Disaster Risk Management, risk is created from the interaction between an extreme event and a vulnerable population, ecosystem or infrastructure.

Risk is determined as a function of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity.

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RISK = HAZARDS X EXPOSURE X VULNERABILITY

CAPACITY

X SOCIAL COHESION

WHY do we look at it this way?

The disaster equation gives us a way to understand and analyze the factors contributing to disaster risk.

By addressing each component of the equation (breaking it down) —reducing hazards, decreasing vulnerability, and enhancing capacity—communities and organizations can work towards minimizing the impact of disasters and enhancing overall resilience.

Hazard Component: The likelihood and intensity of a hazard occurring. A higher frequency or severity of a hazard increases the risk.

Exposure: This represents the presence of people, assets, or activities in areas that are prone to the hazard. The level of exposure can vary depending on factors such as population density, urbanization, and land use.

Vulnerability Component: The degree to which a population, infrastructure, or environment is likely to suffer harm or loss. Higher vulnerability increases the risk.

Capacity Component: The strengths and resources available to manage and reduce disaster impacts. Greater capacity reduces the risk.

Social cohesion: which is the quality of social relationships and the existence of trust, mutual obligations, and respect in communities, helps to protect people and their health.

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Breaking it down

Hazard: The likelihood and intensity of a hazard occurring. A higher frequency or severity of a hazard increases the risk.

Exposure: This represents the presence of people, assets, or activities in areas that are prone to the hazard. The level of exposure can vary depending on factors such as population density, urbanization, and land use.

Vulnerability: The degree to which a population, infrastructure, or environment is likely to suffer harm or loss. Higher vulnerability increases the risk.

Capacity: The strengths and resources available to manage and reduce disaster impacts. Greater capacity reduces the risk.

Social cohesion: The quality of social relationships and the existence of trust, mutual obligations, and respect in communities, helps to protect people and their health.

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The World Bank, officially known as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), was established in the aftermath of World War II to aid in the reconstruction and development of war-torn Europe and later to support economic development in developing countries.

Bretton Woods in 1944: The idea of the World Bank was conceived during the Bretton Woods Conference, held in July 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA. This conference was attended by representatives from 44 Allied nations who gathered to establish a framework for international economic cooperation and reconstruction after World War II.

189 countries now

In summary, the World Bank was founded as part of a broader effort to create a stable and cooperative international economic system post-World War II. It has since grown and adapted to meet the changing needs of the global economy, with a steadfast new mission to reduce poverty and support development worldwide.

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What does the World Bank do?

Core Objectives:

Reduce Poverty
Support Economic Development

Strategies to support these objectives:

Lending
Technical Assistance
Research and Data

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Where do you think risk features in our work?

Key elements of how the WB understands and addresses risk:

The World Bank systematically identifies risks that could affect the success of its projects and initiatives.
This includes financial risks, operational risks, political risks, environmental risks, social risks, and risks related to governance and corruption.
Probably less risk averse than traditional lending institutions

By taking a comprehensive and proactive approach to risk management, the World Bank aims to enhance the resilience and effectiveness of its projects and initiatives, ensuring that they achieve their intended outcomes and contribute to sustainable development.

Manage risk by:

Project Design: During the design phase of projects, the World Bank conducts comprehensive risk assessments to identify potential risks, including financial, operational, social, environmental, and political risks.
Safeguards: The Bank employs various safeguards and frameworks to manage risks, such as environmental and social safeguards, to ensure that projects do not cause harm to people or the environment.
Contingency Planning: Projects often include contingency plans and measures to address unforeseen risks or changes in circumstances.

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Risk Identification and Assessment�
Building a Knowledge Base�
Support Decision Making�
Capacity Building and Technical Assistance

Leveraging Technology and Innovation�
Partnerships and Collaboration�
Community Engagement and Inclusion�
Knowledge Sharing and Dissemination

What we do:

Risk Identification and Assessment:

GFDRR works with countries to identify and assess disaster risks by analyzing hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. This involves collecting and analyzing data

Building a Knowledge Base:

GFDRR invests in generating and disseminating knowledge on disaster risks through research, publications, and the development of tools and platforms. This includes creating databases and atlases that provide comprehensive information on disaster risks and vulnerabilities.

Promoting Risk-Informed Decision Making:

GFDRR supports governments and other stakeholders in integrating disaster risk information into decision-making processes. This involves mainstreaming disaster risk considerations into national and local development planning, sectoral strategies, and investment projects.

Capacity Building and Technical Assistance:

GFDRR provides training and technical assistance to strengthen the capacity of governments, institutions, and communities to assess and manage disaster risks. This includes developing local expertise in risk assessment, risk reduction, and resilience-building practices.
Capacity-building efforts also focus on improving early warning systems, emergency preparedness, and response mechanisms.

Leveraging Technology and Innovation:

GFDRR leverages advanced technologies such as remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and big data analytics to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of risk assessments. (better, faster, cheaper - leapfrog)

Partnerships and Collaboration:

GFDRR fosters partnerships with international organizations, governments, the private sector, and civil society to enhance the collective understanding of disaster risks. Collaborative efforts help in pooling resources, sharing expertise, and scaling up successful practices.
Partnerships also involve engagement with global initiatives such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Community Engagement and Inclusion:

Understanding that disaster risks disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, GFDRR emphasizes the importance of community engagement and inclusion. This involves working with local communities to gather risk information, understand their specific vulnerabilities, and develop tailored risk reduction measures.
Inclusive approaches ensure that the voices of women, children, the elderly, and marginalized groups are considered in risk assessment and planning processes.

Knowledge Sharing and Dissemination:

GFDRR actively disseminates risk information through publications, workshops, conferences, and online platforms. Knowledge sharing aims to enhance global awareness of disaster risks and promote the adoption of best practices in risk management.
Platforms like the Global Risk Data Platform and the ThinkHazard! tool provide accessible risk information to a wide range of users.

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The Digital Earth Partnership aims to enhance the resilience of vulnerable countries and communities to climate change and natural hazard disasters through greater access to and adoption of frontier earth observation tools & services.

This will be achieved by developing and transferring global knowledge, mobilizing key partnerships, and providing operational support to client-executed and Bank activities in the production and use of earth observation for resilience

Climate resilient development is especially reliant on stakeholders' abilities to use accurate and timely information about our changing climate, environment and livelihoods, for risk aware insights and risk reduction actions. Through knowledge building and partnership development, Digital Earth will focus on providing demand driven data services for spatial monitoring, decision support, and risk management activities prompted by client governments and their beneficiaries: activities that are locally appropriate, affordable, actionable, scalable, and sustainable.

The World Bank's Digital Earth Partnership is an initiative aimed at enhancing the use of digital technology and geospatial data to support sustainable development, disaster risk management, environmental protection, and economic growth. This partnership leverages Earth observation, remote sensing, and other geospatial technologies to provide valuable insights and data for informed decision-making.

Key Objectives and Goals

�Enhancing Data Accessibility

Objective: To make high-quality geospatial data accessible to developing countries, enabling them to better manage natural resources, monitor environmental changes, and plan for sustainable development.

Goal: Improve the ability of countries to collect, analyze, and utilize geospatial data.

�Supporting Sustainable Development

Objective: To align geospatial data usage with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), ensuring that development efforts are data-driven and evidence-based.

Goal: Support various SDGs, including those related to poverty reduction, food security, climate action, sustainable cities, and life on land.

Building Capacity

Objective: To enhance the technical capabilities of countries in using geospatial data and technologies.

Goal: Provide training, resources, and support to build local expertise in geospatial analysis and applications.

Fostering Collaboration

Objective: To create a global network of partners, including governments, international organizations, the private sector, academia, and civil society.

Goal: Promote knowledge sharing, innovation, and collaboration in geospatial technology and applications.

Core Components

Geospatial Data Infrastructure

Earth Observation Data: Utilize satellite imagery and remote sensing data to monitor environmental and developmental changes.

Geospatial Platforms: Develop and maintain platforms for data collection, storage, and analysis, such as cloud-based GIS (Geographic Information Systems).

Digital Tools and Technologies

AI and Machine Learning: Employ advanced digital tools like artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze large datasets and derive meaningful insights.

Big Data Analytics: Leverage big data analytics to process and interpret complex geospatial data for various applications.

Training and Capacity Building

Workshops and Training Programs: Conduct workshops, webinars, and training programs to enhance skills in geospatial data handling and analysis.

Technical Assistance: Provide ongoing technical support and assistance to countries and organizations to implement geospatial technologies.

Pilot Projects and Demonstrations

Demonstration Projects: Implement pilot projects to showcase the practical applications of geospatial data in addressing local and global challenges.

Case Studies: Develop case studies and best practice examples to illustrate the benefits and impact of using geospatial data for sustainable development.

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How GFDRR assesses Risk

Hazard Identification

Identify the hazards that can affect an area

Risk Assessment

Hazard Assessment

Frequency + magnitude
Spatial Analysis

Exposure Assessment

Population
Assets & infrastructure

Vulnerability Assessments

Physical
Social
Environmental

and from there………..

Data Collection and Analysis
Modelling and Simulation
Risk Communication
Capacity Building and Technical assistance
Integration into development planning
Monitoring and evaluation
Collaborations and partnerships

The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) evaluates risk through a comprehensive approach that includes risk identification, assessment, and management. This process involves several key steps and methodologies to ensure a thorough understanding of potential hazards, vulnerabilities, and the potential impact on communities and infrastructure. Here’s an overview of how GFDRR evaluates risk:

1. Risk Identification: GFDRR starts by identifying the types of hazards that could potentially impact an area. This includes:

Natural Hazards: Earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, droughts, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis.
Climate-Related Risks: Extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other climate change impacts.

2. Risk Assessment: Risk assessment involves understanding the potential impact of identified hazards. This process includes:

a. Hazard Assessment

Frequency and Magnitude: Evaluating the historical frequency and severity of hazardous events.
Spatial Analysis: Mapping the geographic distribution of hazards to identify areas at risk.

b. Exposure Assessment

Population: Identifying populations living in hazard-prone areas.
Assets and Infrastructure: Assessing critical infrastructure (e.g., schools, hospitals, transportation networks) and economic assets that are exposed to hazards.

c. Vulnerability Assessment

Physical Vulnerability: Analyzing the susceptibility of buildings and infrastructure to damage.
Social Vulnerability: Understanding the socioeconomic factors that affect communities’ ability to respond to and recover from disasters (e.g., poverty, health, education levels).
Environmental Vulnerability: Assessing the resilience of ecosystems and their ability to buffer the impact of hazards.

3. Data Collection and Analysis

GFDRR collects and analyzes data from various sources to inform risk assessments:

Remote Sensing and GIS: Using satellite imagery and geographic information systems (GIS) to map hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities.
Field Surveys: Conducting ground surveys to gather detailed local data.
Historical Data: Analyzing past disaster events to understand patterns and trends.

4. Modeling and Simulation

Advanced modeling techniques are used to simulate potential disaster scenarios and assess their impacts:

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Estimating the likelihood of different hazard scenarios and their potential impacts.
Scenario Analysis: Creating detailed scenarios to understand the potential outcomes of specific hazard events.

5. Risk Communication

GFDRR emphasizes the importance of effectively communicating risk information to stakeholders:

Risk Maps and Reports: Producing detailed risk maps and reports that are accessible to policymakers, planners, and the public.
Stakeholder Engagement: Involving communities, governments, and other stakeholders in the risk assessment process to ensure their perspectives and knowledge are included.

6. Capacity Building and Technical Assistance

GFDRR provides training and technical assistance to build local capacity for risk assessment and management:

Training Programs: Offering workshops and training sessions on risk assessment methodologies and tools.
Technical Support: Assisting governments and institutions in conducting their own risk assessments and developing risk management plans.

7. Integration into Development Planning

Risk assessments conducted by GFDRR are integrated into broader development planning and policy-making processes:

Mainstreaming Risk: Ensuring that disaster risk considerations are integrated into national and local development plans, infrastructure projects, and sectoral policies.
Policy Guidance: Providing recommendations and guidelines to policymakers on incorporating risk assessment findings into decision-making.

8. Monitoring and Evaluation

GFDRR continuously monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of risk assessment and management strategies:

Impact Evaluation: Assessing the outcomes of risk reduction initiatives to determine their effectiveness in reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience.
Feedback Loops: Using lessons learned from past projects to improve future risk assessments and management strategies.

9. Collaboration and Partnerships

GFDRR collaborates with a range of partners to enhance the quality and impact of risk assessments:

International Organizations: Working with UN agencies, development banks, and other international entities to share knowledge and resources.
Research Institutions: Partnering with universities and research organizations to advance risk assessment methodologies and technologies.
Local Stakeholders: Engaging with local governments, NGOs, and communities to ensure that risk assessments are grounded in local realities and needs.

By employing this comprehensive approach, GFDRR ensures that risk assessments are robust, inclusive, and actionable, thereby helping countries build resilience and reduce the impact of disasters.

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The World Bank and the SDG’s

The World Bank utilizes the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as indicators to guide its development strategies, track progress, and evaluate the impact of its projects and initiatives.�

Alignment with Strategic Priorities
Project Design and Implementation
Monitoring and Evaluation

�By integrating the SDGs into its operational framework, the World Bank ensures that its efforts are contributing to a sustainable and inclusive global development path; which promotes long-term resilience and prosperity for all.

Alignment with Strategic Priorities: THIS IS A VERY BROAD RELATIONSHIP

The World Bank aligns its strategic priorities with the SDGs, ensuring that its projects and programs contribute to the global development agenda. This alignment helps in focusing on key areas such as poverty reduction, education, healthcare, and infrastructure development.

Project Design and Implementation:

During the design phase of projects, the World Bank considers how the projects will contribute to achieving specific SDGs. This involves setting clear targets and indicators that are in line with the SDGs to ensure that the outcomes are measurable and aligned with global objectives.

Monitoring and Evaluation:

The World Bank uses SDG indicators to monitor and evaluate the progress and impact of its projects. By doing so, it ensures that the projects are on track to meet their goals and contribute effectively to the broader SDG targets.

Data Collection and Reporting:

The World Bank collects data relevant to SDG indicators to assess progress at national and global levels. This data collection helps in identifying gaps, measuring performance, and reporting on the progress towards achieving the SDGs.

Policy Guidance and Advisory Services:

The World Bank provides policy guidance and advisory services to countries, helping them to integrate SDG indicators into their national development plans and policies. This ensures that countries are able to track their progress and make informed decisions based on reliable data.

Funding and Resource Allocation:

The allocation of funds and resources by the World Bank is often influenced by the SDGs. Projects that are closely aligned with the SDGs may receive priority in funding decisions, ensuring that resources are directed towards areas with the most significant impact on sustainable development.

Partnerships and Collaboration:

The World Bank collaborates with other international organizations, governments, and the private sector to achieve the SDGs. These partnerships leverage additional resources, expertise, and innovations to accelerate progress towards the SDGs.

Annual Reports and Publications:

The World Bank publishes annual reports and other publications that highlight progress towards the SDGs. These reports provide insights into how the World Bank’s activities are contributing to the global development agenda and showcase successful projects and initiatives.

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SDGs related to disaster risk reduction

SDG 1: No Poverty: Target 1.5: build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social, and environmental shocks and disasters.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-Being: Target 3.D: Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction, and management of national and global health risks.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all.

Several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are directly or indirectly related to disaster risk reduction, preparedness, and response. Disasters, whether natural or man-made, significantly impact sustainable development, and addressing these risks is crucial for achieving many of the SDGs. Here are the key SDGs that relate to disasters and disaster risk management:

SDG 1: No Poverty

Goal: End poverty in all its forms everywhere.

Target 1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social, and environmental shocks and disasters.

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

Goal: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.

Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-Being

Goal: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.

Target 3.D: Strengthen the capacity of all countries, in particular developing countries, for early warning, risk reduction, and management of national and global health risks.

SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

Goal: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.

Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers, and lakes.
Target 6.B: Support and strengthen the participation of local communities in improving water and sanitation management.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

Goal: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation.

Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all.
Target 9.A: Facilitate sustainable and resilient infrastructure development in developing countries through enhanced financial, technological, and technical support to African countries, least developed countries, landlocked developing countries, and small island developing States.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

Goal: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.

Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations.
Target 11.B: By 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement, in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, holistic disaster risk management at all levels.

SDG 13: Climate Action

Goal: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.

SDG 15: Life on Land

Goal: Protect, restore, and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, manage forests sustainably, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.

Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought, and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.

SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

Goal: Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.

Target 17.6: Enhance North-South, South-South, and triangular regional and international cooperation on and access to science, technology, and innovation and enhance knowledge sharing on mutually agreed terms, including through improved coordination among existing mechanisms, particularly at the United Nations level, and through a global technology facilitation mechanism.
Target 17.9: Enhance international support for implementing effective and targeted capacity-building in developing countries to support national plans to implement all the sustainable development goals, including through North-South, South-South, and triangular cooperation.

Integration of Disaster Risk Reduction in the SDGs

The integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) into the SDGs underscores the understanding that disasters can undermine sustainable development efforts and that proactive risk management can significantly enhance resilience. The interconnectedness of these goals ensures that efforts to reduce disaster risks contribute to broader development objectives, creating a more resilient and sustainable future for all.

Conclusion

By addressing these SDGs and their specific targets related to disaster risk management, the global community can work towards reducing the impact of disasters, enhancing resilience, and ensuring sustainable development that benefits all people, especially those most vulnerable to disasters.

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Why is this important?

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Accountability

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Data and Indicators for SDG13

Dr. Patricia Solís and Jennings Anderson

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Remember the SDG 13 Climate Action Indicators?

sdgs.un.org/goals/goal13

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