Implications of Future Security Environment Trends on C2 Governance

27^th ICCRTS – 25-27 Oct 2022

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Presentation by

Marie-Eve Jobidon, PhD

Defence R&D Canada - Valcartier

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Outline

• Context: The Future Security Environment (FSE)
• Objective
• Approach
• Current vs. future SE and C2
• General themes
• Forecast
• Implications for C2
• Obstacles to C2 transformation
• Discussion and conclusion

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Context

• The FSE will bring unprecedented challenges to NATO nations
• A significant volume of change and transformation initiatives involving C2 over the last 3 decades
• Arguably, little change to C2 in practice relative to other domains of warfare
• Current overall C2 capability may not be adequate to address challenges of the future
• NATO Exploratory Team “Capability Lifecycle Management”:
• Identified some of the challenges for C2 capability development and C2 transformation
• NATO HFM-342 “C2 Capability Lifecycle Governance”:
• Explores challenges (causes and effects) of managing, developing and transforming C2 capabilities, and develop solutions that include a unifying framework for C2 governance

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RTG HFM-342: C2 Capability Lifecycle Governance

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Objective

• Under NATO HFM-342 “C2 Capability Lifecycle Governance”, we explore the ways in which NATO nations will have to change their approaches to governing C2 capability development
• First key step to developing best practices for C2 transformation:
• Identifying what future C2 requirements might be
• These requirements will be largely determined by the FSE
• FSE: term describing the broad set of expectations concerning the environments in which militaries will operate in the future
• FSE will determine not only the requirements, but also constraints and opportunities, that will shape future C2

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Approach

• Nations routinely engage in periodic assessment of the FSE
• To characterize potential developments and their implications
• To minimize uncertainty and optimize capability to adapt to change
• Analyze NATO and allied documents
• Identify and synthesize major forecasting trends of the FSE
• Derive implications of these trends:
• Core set of challenges and requirements for future C2
• C2 structures and practices will have to adapt to respond to different challenges but it is not always immediately clear how they are likely to change
• Link future C2 implications to C2 transformation challenges

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Current vs. future SE and C2

• Expectation of an environment in which militaries focus on force-on-force conflict
• Achieving aims through kinetic means
• In the context of a fairly-well established international order
• Over which the US and NATO possess dominance through technological and economic superiority

• In which the dominance enjoyed by Western nations is diminishing
• With constant competition and conflict
• Pursued in the full spectrum of domains available to adversaries
• In complex, unfamiliar environments, with increasingly contested cyber and information environments
• With numerous well-equipped and inventive adversaries
• Where militaries are likely to be called upon to perform many diverse and potentially unfamiliar roles

Current C2 has been predicated on…

Forecast: Future C2 will occur in a world…

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General FSE themes

1. More conflict / continuous competition​ around the globe
• Competition, below-threshold conflict, military conflict​
2. Conflicts will be waged among state and non-state actors​
• Gap between state and non-state capabilities will shrink​
3. Conflicts will be conducted in a wide array of domains at once​
• Full-spectrum approach: economic, social, information, kinetic​
4. Nations and adversaries will employ a more diverse set of strategies and tactics than in the past​
• Technology advancement and access enable wider range of options​
5. Conflicts and operations will take place in increasingly complex environments ​
• Both in physical (e.g., large urban areas, Arctic) and virtual (e.g., cyberspace) environments​

©martin.with.bricks, Flickr

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Forecast (1)

• Operations will occur in more complex interconnected geopolitical and social environments
• Operations will occur more widely across the globe
• Operations will occur in more challenging operational environments
• Developed nations will be in greater economic and political conflict and competition but state-on-state warfare will be less attractive
• Various extremist groups will operate in most regions of the world and developed nations will continue to be the targets of terrorist attacks
• Developing/fragile states will be under increasing internal stress

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Forecast (2)

• Greater use of hybrid and asymmetric tactics
• More capable adversaries
• Operations will occur in the context of rapid technological change and non-state adversaries will close the technological gap with militaries of developed nations
• Nations will rely on a wider range of partners, state and non-state, to meet novel challenges
• International diplomatic and economic organizations will remain relevant
• Recruitment and retention challenges

©martin.with.bricks, Flickr

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C2 implications of forecast themes

• Systemic changes to C2 (new ways of thinking about C2)
• Requirement for flexibility and mobility in C2
• Multi-domain capable teams / Broader C2 capabilities will be required (range of domains and dimensions)
• Confronting multiple simultaneous challenges
• Need for new approaches to work in extreme and difficult environments
• Forces must be interoperable with allies as well with OGDs and non-state partners
• Support to other governmental agencies / Cooperation with NGOs
• Preserve the capability to engage in force operations at all levels
• Need to develop the capability to rapidly assess and exploit technological changes
• Recruiting and development

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Potential obstacles to C2 transformation (1)

• Limited ability to evaluate C2 capability
• Despite abundant techniques for assessing C2 capabilities, most militaries are poor at evaluating the state and performance of C2 capabilities
• Will hamper efforts to evaluate how well C2 systems perform in the FSE and how C2 transformation efforts are progressing
• Limited ability to manage C2 capabilities
• Most militaries lack effective C2 governance, e.g., because they have not considered C2 a capability in its own right
• Previous attempts at C2 transformation have been unable to affect and align the whole of a nation’s military
• Challenge of C2 development
• Developing C2 has been a consistent challenge for NATO nations, in particular achieving the high degree of alignment between human and technological components necessary to function in complex environments
• Integrating new C2 concepts supporting integration of all domains (e.g., information, social, economic, political) with technology and doctrine will require an integrated, whole-of-government approach

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Potential obstacles to C2 transformation (2)

• Resistance to change
• In socio-technological systems, change is often met with resistance from people in the organization who perceive change as negative (e.g., due to change being perceived as threatening or disruptive, to institutional barriers or to change fatigue)
• Strongest resistance could be expected in response to changes that most violate tradition and sense of identity in the military
• Overcoming resistance will rely on good communication that clearly defines and motivates the change to C2 and reinforces the value of change to everyone in the organization
• Lack of organizational learning
• Lessons observed vs. lessons learned
• Learning lessons and developing solutions are made harder in militaries by the career system (high staff turnover)
• As new C2 concepts are developed and tested in response to the demands of the FSE, the capability to record, maintain, and act upon lessons will become even more important

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Discussion

• Nations will face new and more challenging environments (e.g., due to intense urbanization, climate change and the rise of hybrid warfare techniques) in which adaptive C2 will be vital
• Need to develop concepts for managing C2 in more domains of conflict and to have the capability to adapt C2 arrangements “on the fly” when operational requirements evolve
• Such adaptivity will benefit from having a governance structure in place for managing C2
• HFM-342 argues that we need to treat C2 as a capability to be governed
• Training and education systems will play a critical role in C2 transformation by promoting new concepts, processes and culture that foster new shared understandings of C2
• Responding to the challenges of the FSE will require militaries rapidly learn from mistakes as they adapt their C2 capabilities

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Conclusion

• Forecast themes are not predictions but guideposts to mitigating the risks of the future
• Point to a wide range of changes to C2 that can make militaries better prepared to cope with complexity and ambiguity and successfully deter or manage conflict
• A more agile C2 is required
• Focused on effective understanding and integration of effects and instruments of national power across multiple domains and levels of competition
• Way ahead: treat C2 as a capability to be governed
• As a governed capability, C2 would benefit from resources and institutional support enjoyed by other traditional capabilities (e.g., FG)
• NATO HFM-342 has begun exploring approaches to C2 governance based on a “lifecycle” perspective. Entails:
• Exploring the challenges of managing, developing and transforming C2 capabilities
• Developing solutions that include a unifying framework to guide planning and conduct of C2 governance

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Thank you for your attention

Questions?

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