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Gender Differences in Voting:

Evidence from the 2019 General Election

Stephen Drinkwater

Business School

University of Roehampton, London

Colin Jennings

Department of Political Economy

Kings College London

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Research on Political Polarisation from WISERD (Civil Society 2) Project: 2019-24

Blackaby, D., Drinkwater, S. and Robinson, C. (2020). Regional variations in the Brexit vote: Causes and potential consequences. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13579.

Drinkwater, S. (2021). Brexit and the ‘left behind’: Job polarization and the rise in support for leaving the European Union. Industrial Relations Journal, 52(6), 569-588.

Drinkwater, S. and Jennings, C. (2022). The Brexit referendum and three types of regret. Public Choice, 193(3), 275-291.

Drinkwater, S. and Robinson, C. (2023). Brexit and the NHS: voting behaviour and views on the impact of leaving the EU. British Politics, 18(4), 557-578.

Clark, K. and Drinkwater, S. (2024). Self-interest or self-defeating? How the self-employed voted in the EU referendum. International Small Business Journal, forthcoming. => Is a gender aspect.

Drinkwater, S., Blackaby, D. and Robinson, C. (2024). What mattered most in the Brexit vote? Evidence from detailed regression and decomposition analysis. IZA Discussion Paper No. 16841.

Project is ongoing with recent appointment of a RA in Swansea
focusing on political polarisation within household => no results yet�

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Outline

Introduction/Motivation

(Brief) Literature Review

Data: Understanding Society

Descriptive Statistics: incl. some from polling companies

Results from statistical/econometric analysis
focusing on reason for why voted for particular party

Conclusions�

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Introduction/Motivation

Early studies across countries tended to report that women were less likely to participate in politics and more conservative than men
But Inglehart and Norris (2000) found that gender differences re-aligned in the 1990s with women moving to the left of men

Gender differences in turnout now tend to be small in many countries including the UK
but women tend to vote less in second-order elections (Kostecka et al. 2019; Dassonneville and Kostecka, 2021)
although surveys may overestimate voting by males (Stockemer and Sundstrom, 2023)

Evidence from the UK that more recent cohorts of women voters are now more supportive of Labour than men (Shorrocks, 2016)
Fairly large gaps in 2017 and 2019 (Campbell and Shorrocks, 2021)

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Introduction/Motivation

Several reasons have been identified for why people vote for particular parties (Blais and Daoust, 2020)
Partisanship
Issue Voting (e.g. Brexit)
Strategic Voting
Negative Voting
Cleavage Voting
Economic Voting

But little known about reasons why individuals/groups (women) may vote in a certain way => our focus here

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Data

Understanding Society
Fairly large sample size => can sample split by demographic groups (quite unusual)
Oversamples ethnic minorities but weights included

Is a panel/longitudinal survey
but we only use a single wave (12): 2020-2

We focus on variables relating to voting at the 2019 General Election
especially the reason given by respondents for why they voted for the party that they voted for

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Descriptive Statistics

Firstly comparing Understanding Society data to IPSOS and YouGov post-election surveys
Self-reported voting patterns are very similar to the election results for both men and women => re-assuring
Bigger differences for age groups => especially ‘over-reporting’ of Labour voting amongst younger males and for Greens amongst younger females

Main tables from Understanding Society are in relation to reason why voted for a particular party
Several options provided: always voted that way; other people voted that way; party-driven; candidate driven; strategic; Brexit and negative
Could also refuse to answer or say ‘Don’t Know’

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Voting Intentions and Patterns in the 2019 General Election by Party and Gender

Sources: IPSOS, YouGov and Understanding Society

	IPSOS		YouGov		UndSoc - Weighted
	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
% Conservative	46	43	46	44	43	42
% Labour	31	34	31	35	34	35
% Lib. Dem.	12	12	12	11	12	11
% Other	11	11	11	10	11	12
% SNP			4	4	4	4
% Green			3	3	3	5

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Voting Patterns in the 2019 General Election by Age Group for Females

Sources: YouGov and Understanding Society

	YouGov				UndSoc - Weighted
	18-24	25-49	50-64	65+	18-24	25-49	50-64	65+
% Conservative	15	32	50	64	12	32	42	59
% Labour	65	45	28	18	65	45	32	21
% Lib. Dem.	10	12	12	10	8	11	11	11
% Other	10	11	10	8	15	13	15	9
% SNP	5	5	4	2	4	4	5	3
% Green	4	3	3	2	10	6	6	4

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Voting Patterns in the 2019 General Election by Age Group for Males

Sources: YouGov and Understanding Society

	YouGov				UndSoc - Weighted
	18-24	25-49	50-64	65+	18-24	25-49	50-64	65+
% Conservative	28	35	51	64	19	35	46	56
% Labour	46	40	25	15	61	42	30	23
% Lib. Dem.	12	14	12	11	8	13	12	11
% Other	14	11	12	10	12	10	12	10
% SNP	7	5	3	3	4	5	4	3
% Green	4	3	3	1	5	3	4	3

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Gender

	Male	Female
% Refusal	19.7	22.3
% Don't know	8.7	11.9
% I always vote that way	16.3	18.1
% Other people voted the same way	1.0	1.8
% Party-driven considerations	16.2	14.1
% Candidate-driven considerations	7.1	6.9
% Strategic voting	10.4	9.6
% Brexit	7.0	4.6
% Negative voting (dislike another party)	12.6	10.0
% Uncoded	1.0	0.7
% Other	0.0	0.0
Unweighted N	9,819	12,290

Source: Understanding Society

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Age Group for Females

	18-24	25-29	30-49	50-64	65+
% Refusal	27.3	31.1	27.0	23.7	13.9
% Don't know	21.0	11.9	13.8	10.4	9.3
% I always vote that way	10.8	12.5	16.9	16.3	23.6
% Other people voted the same way	1.4	2.6	2.1	1.2	2.1
% Party-driven considerations	17.6	15.4	14.2	14.9	12.1
% Candidate-driven considerations	5.5	9.2	4.4	6.8	9.4
% Strategic voting	10.9	6.0	7.7	10.4	11.0
% Brexit	0.8	2.8	3.9	5.3	5.9
% Negative voting	4.1	7.7	9.2	10.5	12.1
% Uncoded	0.4	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.7
% Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Unweighted N	899	727	3,422	3,624	3,616

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Age Group for Males

	18-24	25-29	30-49	50-64	65+
% Refusal	24.3	27.6	20.4	21.6	13.6
% Don't know	12.0	14.3	10.0	7.6	6.2
% I always vote that way	15.9	9.8	14.4	14.4	22.3
% Other people voted the same way	3.3	1.0	0.9	0.7	1.0
% Party-driven considerations	17.4	16.6	16.5	17.0	14.5
% Candidate-driven considerations	5.4	5.2	8.7	5.8	7.6
% Strategic voting	9.5	12.2	9.5	10.7	10.8
% Brexit	4.2	4.6	6.4	7.8	8.3
% Negative voting	7.8	8.0	11.7	13.5	15.0
% Uncoded	0.3	0.7	1.5	1.1	0.6
% Other	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Unweighted N	593	518	2,658	2,933	3,114

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Party for Females

	Con.	Lab.	LD	Green	Brexit	Other
% Refusal	20.4	20.1	15.9	13.9	28.8	17.3
% Don't know	9.9	12.1	8.6	10.8	6.3	12.9
% I always vote that way	19.7	21.2	16.0	10.6	4.3	20.7
% Other people	2.2	2.4	0.9	0.0	0.0	1.1
% Party	10.3	18.0	7.8	39.8	7.9	17.9
% Candidate	9.2	5.4	10.4	4.4	0.0	4.6
% Strategic voting	7.7	10.0	22.0	8.7	13.1	10.2
% Brexit	7.9	1.7	6.4	1.1	18.6	2.3
% Negative voting	11.7	8.4	11.6	9.9	19.1	12.2
% Uncoded	0.8	0.8	0.4	1.0	1.9	0.7
% Other	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Unweighted N	4,162	4,065	1,128	524	130	1,280

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Party for Males

	Con.	Lab.	LD	Green	Brexit	Other
% Refusal	19.2	15.3	12.9	13.0	26.5	19.6
% Don't know	8.8	8.7	5.0	5.8	10.7	7.8
% Always vote that way	15.3	23.3	10.3	6.9	5.6	17.7
% Other people	0.9	1.5	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.8
% Party	13.4	18.6	15.0	46.4	9.8	19.2
% Candidate	8.2	7.2	9.1	3.3	0.0	5.0
% Strategic voting	6.9	10.8	23.9	10.3	9.2	12.7
% Brexit	11.1	2.3	10.5	0.8	25.2	4.1
% Negative voting	15.1	11.3	12.3	13.0	13.0	11.4
% Uncoded	1.2	1.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	1.7
% Other	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Unweighted N	3,707	2,937	991	316	161	1,075

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Selected Party for Voters Aged Under 30

	Male		Female
	Cons.	Lab.	Cons.	Lab.
% Refusal	39.5	17.0	40.5	26.9
% Don't know	14.0	9.5	23.0	15.1
% Always vote that way	5.6	17.8	10.1	13.7
% Other people	0.8	4.4	3.5	2.2
% Party	10.9	20.4	4.1	18.1
% Candidate	5.8	8.4	8.9	6.6
% Strategic voting	3.0	11.5	1.6	10.6
% Brexit	8.8	2.5	2.9	1.5
% Negative voting	11.6	8.7	5.5	5.4
N (unweighted)	225	523	219	899

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Reason for Voting for a Party in the 2019 General Election by Selected Party for Voters Aged 30 or Over

	Male		Female
	Cons.	Lab.	Cons.	Lab.
% Refusal	17.8	15.1	19.4	18.3
% Don't know	8.5	8.7	9.2	11.4
% Always vote that way	16.3	24.9	20.4	23.5
% Other people	0.9	0.8	2.1	2.4
% Party	13.7	18.4	10.8	18.2
% Candidate	8.4	7.1	9.3	5.1
% Strategic voting	7.3	10.8	8.2	9.9
% Brexit	11.4	2.4	8.3	1.8
% Negative voting	15.6	12.1	12.2	9.4
N (unweighted)	3,449	2,370	3,897	3,117

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Econometric Analysis

Several different binary logit models initially estimated:
Full sample (basic and augmented specifications), under 30s and females aged under 30
Dependent variable=1 if no reason given for voting for party (refused or don’t know); 0 if reason provided
Marginal effects and associated p-values reported for gender, age group and qualification dummies
Models also control for marital status and region (and economic activity party voted for, ethnicity and UK born)

Multinomial logit models then estimated for the stated reason for voting – relative to ‘always vote that way’
Estimates reported as above using augmented spec.

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Marginal Effects from a Logit Model Estimated for No Reason Given for Voting

Notes: Marital Status and Region also included in Basic Specification. Augmented Specification also includes controls for Party Voted For, Economic Activity, Ethnicity and UK-born. Reference categories are Aged 18-24 and Graduate.

	Full Sample: Basic Spec.		Full Sample: Aug. Spec.		All Aged 18-29: Aug. Spec.		Females Aged 18-29: Aug. Spec.
	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value
Female	0.057	0.000	0.059	0.000	0.122	0.000	_	_
Age 25-29	-0.013	0.437	-0.049	0.015	0.003	0.880	-0.025	0.341
Age 30-49	-0.048	0.001	-0.076	0.000	_	_	_	_
Age 50-64	-0.109	0.000	-0.148	0.000	_	_	_	_
Age 65+	-0.198	0.000	-0.205	0.000	_	_	_	_
A Level/Equiv.	_	_	0.088	0.000	0.095	0.000	0.126	0.000
Other Quals	_	_	0.140	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.195	0.000
No Quals	_	_	0.104	0.000	0.051	0.030	0.068	0.033
Pseudo R-sq.	0.024		0.050		0.038		0.034
N	21,771		15,322		5,754		3,310

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Marginal Effects from a Multinomial Logit Model Estimated for Reason for Voting

Notes: Explanatory variables based on augmented spec. Measured relative to ‘Always voted that way’.

	Other People		Party		Candidate		Strategic		Brexit		Negative
	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value	M.E.	p-value
Female	0.005	0.003	-0.006	0.470	0.013	0.003	0.011	0.133	-0.025	0.000	-0.037	0.000
Age 25-29	0.004	0.558	-0.057	0.015	-0.006	0.776	-0.054	0.005	0.023	0.379	0.053	0.153
Age 30-49	-0.004	0.313	-0.089	0.020	0.002	0.941	-0.025	0.248	0.028	0.205	0.049	0.112
Age 50-64	-0.009	0.030	-0.089	0.000	-0.009	0.649	-0.019	0.401	0.032	0.145	0.050	0.099
Age 65+	-0.007	0.141	-0.109	0.000	0.017	0.477	-0.034	0.152	0.011	0.593	0.039	0.232
A Level/Equiv	0.010	0.005	-0.022	0.044	-0.010	0.193	-0.033	0.000	-0.011	0.076	0.009	0.376
Other Quals	0.121	0.003	-0.054	0.000	0.000	0.994	-0.026	0.004	-0.005	0.461	0.009	0.399
No Quals	0.016	0.000	-0.066	0.000	-0.001	0.887	-0.018	0.054	0.003	0.654	0.003	0.784
Pseudo R-sq.	0.051
N	11,095

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Conclusions

Females are less likely to provide a reason for why voted for a party (in a GE), especially in younger age groups
Having higher qualifications/degree increases the probability that a reason is given

Of those giving a reason, females ares more likely to vote for a party for candidate-driven reasons and less likely to vote negatively and about Brexit
Graduates are more likely to vote strategically and for party-driven reasons

Future work: examine different parts/countries of the UK (if enough observations) => can look at minority parties

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References

Blais, A. and Daoust, J. F. (2020). The Motivation to Vote: Explaining Electoral Participation. UBC Press.

Campbell, R. and Shorrocks, R. (2021). Finally rising with the tide? Gender and the vote in the 2019 British Elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 31(4), 488-507.

Dassonneville, R. and Kostelka, F. (2021). The cultural sources of the gender gap in voter turnout. British Journal of Political Science, 51(3), 1040-1061.

Inglehart, R., & Norris, P. (2000). The developmental theory of the gender gap: Women’s and men’s voting behavior in global perspective. International Political Science Review, 21(4), 441-463.

Kostecka, F., Blais, A. and Gidengil, E. (2019). Has the gender gap in voter turnout really disappeared?. West European Politics, 42(3), 437-463.

Shorrocks, R. (2016). Modernisation and government socialisation: Considering explanations for gender differences in cohort trends in British voting behaviour. Electoral Studies, 42, 237-248.

Stockemer, D. and Sundstrom, A. (2023). The gender gap in voter turnout: An artefact of men’s over-reporting in survey research? The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 25(1), 21-41.

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