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Alaska’s Changing Demographics: Economic Implications��Anchorage Rotary Club�October 29, 2019

Ralph Townsend

Director

Institute of Social and Economic Research

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ISER’s Center for Alaska Education Policy Research

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Alaska Health-Care Spending

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Demographics matter!

Alaska ratio

Year male to female

1900 2.58

1950 1.61

1970 1.18

2016 1.06

Source: US Census

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The big change: We’re getting older, and quickly.

% of population over 65

Year US Alaska

1980 11 % 3 %

1990 13 % 4 %

2000 12 % 5 %

2010 13 % 7 %

2017 16 % 11 %

2030 20 % 17 %

Source: AK Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development

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Health care spending per capita

US Alaska

1991 $ 2672 $ 2558

2014 $ 8045 $11,064

(Highest)

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Under-18 Population, Alaska

Source: US Census

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Under-18 Population, US

Source: US Census

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Lower educational attainment �for minorities

2015-16 High School Graduation Rates

Alaska US

All 76% 84%

White 81% 88%

Black 74% 76%

Hispanic 76% 79%

AI/AN 64% 72%

Source: NCES

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Lower post-secondary attainment in Alaska

College Post-Secondary

Attendance Degree

by HS Grads 25-34 year-olds

(2014) (2015)

Alaska 44% 37%

(49^th) (38^th)

US 63% 43%

Source: NCES, NCHEMS

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Source: Alaska Population Projections 2017-45

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Alaska Population

Source: AK Dept. of Labor and Workforce Dev.

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Net Migration for Alaska

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The economic implications of Alaska’s demographic changes

Population growth insufficient to fill spaces left by retirees.
Minorities, with historically lower educational attainment, increasing share of workforce.
Historic reliance on in-migration, esp. for post-secondary skills, will be undermined by national shortages.

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Alaska’s Changing Demographics: Economic Implications��Anchorage Rotary Club�

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