From Certainty to Confidence

An exploration of concepts, language, and expression

Based on lessons created by: 2023-24 Mill Institute Teaching Fellows

Explain the similarities or differences between these quotations.

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“Let go of certainty. The opposite isn't uncertainty. It's openness, curiosity and a willingness to embrace paradox, rather than choose upsides. The ultimate challenge is to accept ourselves exactly as we are, but never stop trying to learn and grow.” -Tony Schwartz

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“Not to be absolutely certain is, I think, one of the essential things in rationality.” -Bertrand Russell

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“Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise.”

-William Shakespeare

Certainty and Confidence

The Certainty Trap is an unwillingness or inability to question, challenge, or clarify our thinking.

It paves the way for contempt of people who disagree politically.

Certainty

The conviction that a belief, value, or principle is 100% true.

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It leads to the idea that our claim requires no further investigation and that the assumptions that got us there don’t need to be stated explicitly.

Confidence

The level of “sureness” a person has that their belief is accurate or right. On the number line from 0 to 1, confidence is all the space in between those two endpoints.

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Confidence allows for the possibility, even if small, that what you think you know could change.

The Language of Certainty

Discussion Questions:

• How does confidence sound different from certainty?

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• Is confidence more wishy-washy than certainty?

“Home of the Future” Video

“The more you know,

the more you know how much you don’t know.”

Reflect

Respond to one of the following prompts:

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• Share a personal belief that you are now willing to be intellectually humble about or that you are willing to express with confidence rather than certainty.

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• Pick one example of certainty vs. confidence from today’s lesson that surprised or challenged you and explain why.

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• Illustrate the relationship between certainty, confidence, and intellectual humility. You may use an alternate metaphor if you wish (i.e. you do not have to use a bridge, but make sure your metaphor is clear).