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Theory of Change

SESSION 4

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SESSION OBJECTIVES

Develop a Theory of Change for the CLJIP based on the situation analysis and the causality analysis.

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OBJECTIVE of WORKSHOP: Draft CBJIP

SITUATION ANALYSIS OF CICL/CAR

CAUSALITY

ANALYSIS

THEORY OF

CHANGE

RESULTS-BASED FRAMEWORK

CHANGE STRATEGIES

THE ROAD TOWARDS THE WORKSHOP OBJECTIVE

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Theory of Change?

WHAT IS

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THEORY OF CHANGE – is the process of developing a plan or a design to solve a social problem and achieve a desired end-result.

TOC is a tool used to help identify the current situation and the ideal desired situation and what needs to be done to move from one situation to another.

What is THEORY OF CHANGE (TOC) ?

THEORY OF CHANGE is like telling a story of how the problem of CICL could be solved by setting up certain conditions in order to reach the long-term goal for them.

The TOC gives you an idea of what needs to be done from the current situation of CICL in the LGU towards an ideal situation where there will be no more CICL.

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WHAT DOES THE TOC PROCESS INVOLVE?

(1) analyzing the current situation of your target population,

(2) visualizing the ideal desired situation, and

(3) Identifying what needs to be in place to move from the

current situation to the ideal desired situation.

What is THEORY OF CHANGE (TOC) ?

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BLUEPRINT is what you need before building a house.

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The ways towards Change

16/08/2023

Problem on CICL/CAR

Desired CHANGE

Pangarap: No CICL

“Theory of Change”?

The ways towards Change

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A TOC looks like the diagram in the next slide. ��It is like a story that you read but starting from the end (the bottom).

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Goal (DREAM): “By the end of 2028, there will be no CICL. The rights of all children are fulfilled.

Outcome Statement 1: Families are caring, protective of children and provide for their needs.

Outcome Statement 2: The community has preventive/protective services for children and opportunities for them for play and recreation.

Outcome Statement 3: The City/Municipality has a CLJIP integrated in the Local. Devt. Plan and is implemented & monitored well.

Output 1 - Parents use positive discipline to raise their children

Output 1 – Service providers are aware of CRC and RA 9344

Output 1 - Ordinances protecting children are passed.

Output 2 - Parents are aware of child rights

Output 2 – Soc. Workers and PNP are trained on proper handling of CICL.

Output 2 - Laws on children are fully implemented.

Output 3 - Children engage in legal jobs to help their parents

Output 3 -There are spaces activities for children to play & recreate.

Output 3 - % of IRA allocation for children are planned and used.

Output 4 - Children’s basic needs are fully met at home.

Output 4 - Education and health services are available for children.

Output 4 - Local Plan for Children developed/implemented.

Statement of the Problem: “The number of CICL and CAR in Barangay ___________ is increasing and their rights are not respected and fufilled.

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Note:

Just like the process of building a house, the process of developing a TOC is done step by step.

Developing a TOC is done by a discussion group and not by an individual person. It normally takes time to do it.

In the process of developing the TOC, statements are written on meta cards with permanent markers, and are posted on a brown paper using masking tapes.

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Now, let’s develop a TOC for your CLJIP, �STEP by STEP.

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Write the statement of the problem in long metacard using a permanent marker

and post it at the bottom of the brown paper like the diagram the below:

STEP 0

Statement of the Problem:“The number of CICL in the City/Municipality of _________ increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020.”

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FORMULATE the long-term goal of the CLJIP. The long-term goal is what your program desires to achieve by the end of the 3 to 5 year-period. Sometimes it is referred to as the IMPACT RESULT. The IMPACT RESULT is the end-result of your CBJIP.

For example:

If your summary statement of the problem is: “The number of CICL in City/Municipality of --- increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020.” Your goal statement might be: “The number of CICL in City/Municipality of --- decreased by 50 percent, that is, from 75 CICL in 2020 to 38 CICL in 2023.”

STEP 1

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Statement of the Problem:“Sa City/Municipality ng -----, dumarami ang mga batang lumalabag sa batas at ang kanilang mga Karapatan ay nilalabag..”

Goal Statement: “Sa katapusan ng 2027, wala ng batang lumalabag sa batas sa City/Municipality of -------.”

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IDENTIFY the pre-conditions that are necessary to achieve your goal. These pre-conditions are referred to as outcomes.

What are outcomes?

If goals are referred to as the impact results or end-results; pre-conditions are referred to as outcome results or intermediate results.

Outcome results are intermediate results describing the ideal conditions in the family side, community side, and LGU side that you need to set-up.

STEP 2

OUTCOME RESULTS are not yet the final results as they are only the intermediate or in-between results. Remember that outcome results are results statements not activities.

Note that the desired OUTCOME RESULTS correspond to the structure of the causality analysis. Please take a look back at the sample causality analysis which is copied and carried forward below in this page. The key is to analyze them and convert them into something positive. You have to analyze the reasons and causes of the problem that you have identified to determine what might be your desired outcome statement.

In the three levels of analysis, you have to think about what should be the condition of the family, the condition of the community, and the condition of the Barangay so that you can achieve your long-term goal or desired impact result for CICL. Conversely, think about the resulting conditions that can be achieved at the family, community and the barangay LGU level once the reasons or causes of the main problem is addressed.

Look at the example below. The reasons or causes of the problem which have been identified from the causality analysis are copied and carried forward to develop the outcome statements.

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Levels of Analysis	Some of the reasons or causes might be the following:
1. Family Side	Parents physically abuse their children that drive them away from their houses. Parents are not aware of child rights. Children steal money to help their poor parents Children’s basic needs are not met at home. Children lack skills to resist vices, bad influence of peers, etc.
2. Community Side	Children are influenced by bad peers in the Barangay. There is no protocol in management of CICL and CAR There limited opportunities in the community for play and recreation. Services for children are insufficient

Example of Outcome Statements – Refer to your causality analysis…

Outcome Statement 2: The community has preventive and protective services for children and provide opportunities for play and recreation.

Outcome Statement 1:

The family is caring and protective of children and provide for their needs.

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Levels of Analysis	Some of the reasons or causes might be the following:
3. Barangay (LGU) Side	The LGU has no ordinance protecting children. Laws on children are not implemented in the LGU The are no facilities for children in the LGU. The 1% mandatory allocation for children is not being used properly. The LGU has no Development Plan for Children.

Example of Outcome Statements

Outcome Statement 3: The LGU has funded CLJIP integrated in the Local Development Plan and that is implemented and monitored.

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Statement of the Problem:“Sa Barangay Zone 5, dumarami ang mga batang lumalabag sa batas at ang kanilang mga Karapatan ay nilalabag..”

Goal Statement: “Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa batas sa Barangay Zone 5.”

Outcome Statement 2 - The community has preventive and protective services for children and provide opportunities for play and recreation.

Outcome Statement 1:

The family is caring and protective of children and provide for their needs.

Outcome Statement 3: The Barangay has funded CBJIP integrated in the Barangay Development Plan and that is implemented and monitored.

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\

Statement of the Problem:“The number of CICL in Barangay Pag-asa increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020.”

Goal Statement: “Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa batas sa Barangay Zone 5.”

Outcome Statement 2:

Outcome Statement 1:

Outcome Statement 3:

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CHECK the logic of this first level of the TOC by using the IF and THEN statement, as follows:

IF The family is caring and protective of children and provide for their needs. IF The community has preventive and protective services for children and provide opportunities for play and recreation IF The LGU has funded CLJIP integrated in the Local Development Plan and that is implemented and monitored. THEN “The number of CICL in LGU of ------- will decrease by 50 percent, that is, from 75 CICL in 2020 to 38 CICL in 2023.”

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IDENTIFY another set of pre-conditions that are necessary to achieve the Outcome statements. This next set of pre-conditions are referred to as OUTPUTS.

What are outputs?

OUTPUTS are the necessary pre-conditions needed to make the expected OUTCOMES happen at the family, community, and Barangay sides. Remember, outputs are results statements and not activities.

STEP 3

OUTPUTS are a set of pre-conditions that will make the OUTCOMES happen. OUTPUTS are also defined as the direct result of inputs. INPUTS are direct intervention or activities that you conduct to produce results called OUTPUTS. The conduct of trainings, for example, are inputs in the form of activity that directly result to an output which is the increased awareness or improved skills of target stakeholders. This output, along with other outputs, contribute to outcomes such as improved decision-making or improved behaviors and actions. Note that the outcome (change in behavior) will not be achieved directly through trainings without the vital expected output of the training which is the increased understanding of the target stakeholder.

OUTPUTS are the necessary pre-conditions needed to make the expected OUTCOMES happen at the family, community, and Barangay sides. Remember, outputs are results statements and not activities.

The outputs can be identified by looking at the reasons or causes of problem in the causality analysis, and transforming them into positive statements or solutions that corresponds to the causes of problem. In this process, ensure that outputs are results of activities or inputs and not the activity or input itself.

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Level	Outcome Statements	Output Statements
Family	Outcome Statement 1: The family is caring and protective of children and provide for their needs.	Parents are aware of child rights Parents use positive reinforcement to discipline their children and not physical punishment. Parents have the knowledge and skills to teach children how to resist peer pressure and temptation to commit wrongdoings. Parents have the means to provide for the basic needs of children.
Community	Outcome Statement 2: The community has preventive and protective services for children and provide opportunities for play and recreation.	Playgrounds and play spaces constructed for children and youth. Local Health Center/Stations have completed health services for children. There are Day Care Centers catering to children from remote areas.
LGU	Outcome Statement 3: The LGU has funded CLJIP integrated in the Barangay Development Plan and that is implemented and monitored.	LCPC is fully functional CLJIP is developed by the PMT Local Ordinance passed approving the CLJIP Local Ordinances protecting children have passed

Example of Output Statements

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Now CHECK the logic again using the IF and THEN statement below. Let’s take Outcome Statement 1, as an example: �

IF parents are aware of child rights IF parents use positive reinforcement to discipline their children and not physical punishment. IF parents have the knowledge and skills to teach children how to resist peer pressure and temptation to commit wrongdoings. IF Parents have the means to provide for the basic needs of children THEN the family will become caring and protective of children and provide for their needs.

OUTPUTS

OUTCOME

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CLJIP

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IDENTIFY the assumptions and risks that can positively or negatively affect your TOC.

ASSUMPTIONS

RISKS

are conditions or factors that must be in place or present to achieve the goal of your CLJIP.

Are events or occurrences that can negatively affect your CLJIP and the achievement of your goal.

Examples of Assumptions: The LCPC is active and functional The LCE is supportive Adequate funding is available Political commitment exists

Examples of Risks: In fighting within the Local Council Uncooperative/indifferent community residents Tribal wars Natural Calamities

STEP 4

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STEP 5

ORGANIZE the statement of problem, goal statement, the outcomes, the outputs, as well as the assumptions and risks, following the diagram.

Assumptions and Risks: ____________________________________________________

Note: You may copy here the examples above.

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Goal Statement: ““Sa katapusan ng 2024, wala ng batang lumalabag sa batas sa LGU-------.”

Outcome Statement 1: Families are caring, protective of children and provide for their needs.

Outcome Statement 2: The community has preventive/protective services for children and opportunities for them for play and recreation.

Outcome Statement 3: The Barangay has a CBJIP integrated in the Brgy. Devt. Plan and is implemented & monitored well.

Output 1 - Parents use positive discipline to raise their children

Output 1 – Service providers are aware of CRC and RA 9344

Output 1 - Ordinances protecting children are passed.

Output 2 - Parents are aware of child rights

Output 2 – Soc. Workers and PNP are trained on proper handling of CICL.

Output 2 - Laws on children are fully implemented.

Output 3 - Children engage in legal jobs to help their parents

Output 3 -There are spaces activities for children to play & recreate.

Output 3 - % of IRA allocation for children are planned and used.

Output 4 - Children’s basic needs are fully met at home.

Output 4 - Education and health services are available for children.

Output 4 - Brgy Devt Plan for Children developed/implemented.

Statement of the Problem: “Sa LGU ___________, dumarami ang mga batang lumalabag sa batas at ang kanilang mga Karapatan ay nilalabag.”

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Goal Statement: “By the end of 2023, the number of CICL in ________________ decreased by 100%.” .

Outcome Statement 1: Families are caring, protective of children and provide for their needs.

Outcome Statement 2: The community has preventive/protective services for children and opportunities for them for play and recreation.

Outcome Statement 3: The Barangay has a CBJIP integrated in the Brgy. Devt. Plan and is implemented & monitored well.

Output 1 –

Output 1 -

Output 2 -

Output 2 -.

Output 2 -

Output 3 -

Output 4 -

Statement of the Problem: “The number of CICL in ___________ increased from 40 in 2019 to 75 in 2020“.

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Assumptions
Risks

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CONGRATULATIONS!!!�

You have completed your TOC for your CLJIP. Proceed to the next Session.