Forecasting Future Egg Prices
Modeled By:
Declan Anderson, Dev Patel, Max Bai, Teja Aremanda
Why Forecast Egg Prices
Predicting egg prices can benefit the entire operation and industry, giving notice for the severity of certain time periods that require adjustment for sales.
Benefits: The consumer, by preparing them for an expensive holiday season or ensure cheap prices in the summer. The retailer, by anticipating market fluctuations and thus, allowing stores to adjust inventory accordingly. The farmers, by giving them useful information to manage their flocks and production schedules carefully.
Our Goal: Effectively predict the future change of egg prices in the US to demonstrate an understanding of how mathematics applies to a real-world scenario.
Market Overview
Season
Mortality
Financial Loss
Bird Flu affects the egg market at the worst possible time: the winter, when demand is highest.
When a flock is infected, the flu kills 75% to 100% of the population.
According to CSIS, the Bird Flu caused more than $1.4 Billion in industry loss after December ‘24.
Seasonal Trends: Egg demand and prices spike in the winter months and easter seasons.
Key Factors: Changing costs of Chicken Feed, Seasons, Avian Influenza (Bird Flu).
Bird Flu: The biggest factor of change of egg prices. A high-intensity wave caused record-high prices earlier in 2025, raising prices over $6 a dozen for Large Grade-As.
Additional Data
Credit: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
IN PRICE
Key Data Sources: USDA Egg Markets Overview & Agriculture Counts, Trading Economics
Primary Factors
Seasonal Trends:
As these trends affect the market every year, it was crucial to include this factor as a part of our predictions.
Bird Flu:
Aside from being another yearly occurrence, this recent spike gave us the opportunity to forecast the market’s long-term recovery as part of our prediction.
Factors unaccounted for:
y=1.5sin(1/2 x +1.25)+3.24433
Factors accounted for:
Model
Model Training
Prediction
Insights & Implications
Producers
Retailers
Consumers
-Better planning
-Cost management
-Risk reduction
-Inventory optimization
-Dynamic pricing
-Contract negotiations
-More Informed of prices
-Better purchasing decisions
Conclusion
Egg prices are highly volatile, driven by factors like feed costs, disease outbreaks, and seasonal demand.
Our predictive model shows strong performance, offering reliable short-term forecasts using key market indicators.
Forecasts can support smarter decisions for producers, retailers, and consumers alike.
“Understanding tomorrow’s egg prices today helps everyone plan better — from the farm to the breakfast table.”
Final Note:
Sources
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n
https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-bird-flu-impacting-agriculture-and-food-security-united-states
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110866525000210