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Solutions to the Climate Crisis �in New Mexico

Nov 10, 2019

Tom Solomon

350NewMexico.org

TASolomon6@gmail.com

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Find this presentation at:

350NM.org/presentations

For best results, view this slide deck in presentation mode.

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Agenda in Three Parts

The Earth is warming – causes & effects
What must be done
What we can do in New Mexico

Shorter summary –

the science, the tech & the politics

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The Message

Elect climate activists into political leadership
Push through policy solutions like:

The Green New Deal
A price on carbon emissions
100% Renewables, then Electrify everything
Implement DRAWDOWN solutions�

Keep at it for the rest of our lives, �back towards 350ppm of CO2.

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The path forward is to

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Warming is Happening Now

2018 was the 4^th hottest year on record
Hottest years, last five: 2016, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2014

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https://mogreenstats.com/2019/02/07/2018-was-the-fourth-hottest-year-on-record/

Globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean.

This makes 2016 the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170118112554.htm/

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/483.htm

Measuring the baseline: (which is 1961-1990)

For example, later periods such as 1961 to 1990 are likely to have larger anthropogenic trends embedded in the climate data, especially the effects of sulphate aerosols over regions such as Europe and eastern USA (Karl et al., 1996). In this regard, the ideal baseline period would be in the 19th century when anthropogenic effects on global climate were negligible. Most impact assessments, however, seek to determine the effect of climate change with respect to the present, and therefore recent baseline periods such as 1961 to 1990 are usually favored. A further attraction of using 1961 to 1990 is that observational climate data coverage and availability are generally better for this period compared to earlier ones.

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CO2 Levels: Higher Now Than Any Time in Human History

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CO2

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/

Modern Humans evolve

All of human history. Until now.

‘Now’

http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

NASA.gov

2019

450

CO2 is a �heat-trapping greenhouse gas

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The Greenhouse Effect (per NOAA)

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/what.html

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Impacts Are Being Felt Now:�wildfires, heat waves, drought, superstorms

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http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine

Disaster 2017-18	Damage Est.
Hurricane Harvey	$180B
Hurricane Irma	$100B
Hurricane Maria	$95B
California wildfires	$85B
Hurricane Florence	$50B
Hurricane Michael	$30B
Total	>$500B

Los Angeles Skirball Fire, Hwy 405, Dec 2017

Spring 2019

Aug 2019

Paris hits 109F

Recent NM wildfires: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Wildfires_in_New_Mexico

2000 Cerro Grande Fire, 47,650 acres, Los Alamos lost 400 homes, $570M damage

2011 Las Conchas, 150,000 acres

2011 Wallow Fire, 538,049 in AZ and NM

2012 Whitewater-Baldy, 298,000 acres, Gila forest

2016 Dog Head Fire, 18,000 acres, near Chilili

http://fortune.com/2017/09/03/hurricane-harvey-damages-cost/

Texas Governor Abbott estimated cost of Hurricane Harvey up to $180B

https://www.vox.com/explainers/2017/9/18/16314440/disasters-are-getting-more-expensive-harvey-irma-insurance-climate

Cost of Hurricane Irma range from $50-100B

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/28/news/economy/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-damage-estimate/index.html

Cost of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico range from $45-95B

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/devastating-california-wildfires-predicted-to-cost-us-economy-85-billion-containment-may-take-weeks/70003000

Cost of California Wildfires to US economy up to $85B

http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine

Recent satellite observations have detected a thinning of parts of the Greenland ice sheet at lower elevations.

A partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet would cause a 1-meter (3-foot) rise. If melted completely, the Greenland ice sheet contains enough water to raise sea level by 5-7 meters (16-23 feet).

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjQg7eH1s_VAhXHwFQKHTlnDCwQjxwIAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fadventuresofedthebear.blogspot.com%2F2010%2F05%2F&psig=AFQjCNFe0GjQoL3aQlx573rNHioBxkwhjg&ust=1502557592216431

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Hurricane Florence Hits N. Carolina

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Sept 2018. Then Hurricane Michael in Oct 2018.

93% of global warming goes into the oceans.

Warmer waters:

Make hurricanes stronger. Cat 1 => Cat 3
Make hurricanes last longer as they move north
Increase evaporation causing more rainfall
Increase air’s moisture capacity causing more rainfall

And the melting arctic ice is slowing the Jet Stream so hurricanes slow and stall over land, causing more rainfall

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/9/12/17850646/hurricane-florence-flooding-rain-climate-change-warmer-ocean

How global warming make hurricanes more damaging

They gather strength from warm ocean waters, >82F. 93% of global warming goes into oceans
Warmer waters accelerate evaporation increasing moisture in clouds, increasing rainfall. Also, warmer air carries about 4% more water
Warmer oceans make hurricanes last longer as they travel north into ‘colder’ waters that should weaken them
The melting arctic ice is slowing the jet stream worldwide, allowing hurricanes to slow down and just sit over land after they hit, dropping rain and rain and rain and causing massive flooding
Rising sea levels allow the storm surge to travel farther inland and waters to rise higher, creating more damage.

https://earthjustice.org/blog/2018-september/hurricane-florence-brings-another-hog-waste-flood-to-north-carolina

https://www.twincities.com/2018/09/16/fearsome-new-stage-begins-as-florence-floods-inland-rivers/

https://wlos.com/news/local/sunday-latest-florence-expected-to-weaken-as-flood-risk-rises

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/09/photos-the-aftermath-of-hurricane-florence/570397/

Damage estimates up to $28B in property, death toll up to 42.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurricane-florence-caused-19-billion-to-285-billion-in-property-damage-corelogic-2018-09-25

http://www.e-missions.net/HurricaneAlert/?cat=72&sid=2&pid=93&page=How%20Hurricanes%20Form

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/hurricane_anatomy/hurricane_anatomy.html

Waters must be over 80deg F to power a hurricane, and warm to 200ft in depth.

Hurricane Florence passed over waters that were about 3.6F hotter than normal, above 84F (29C)

http://www.climatesignals.org/events/hurricane-florence-september-2018

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Cat 5 Hurricane Dorian Demolished Bahamas Sept 1, 2019: 185+ mph winds

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“Sea surface temperatures were more than 1C warmer in the region where Dorian formed and strengthened than they were before we started burning fossil fuels.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/04/climate-crisis-hurricane-dorian-floods-bahamas

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Fire Destroys Paradise, CA. Town of 27,000

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As of Nov 2019:

85 dead. 13,000 homes destroyed, 153,000 acres burned

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Climate Disasters Up 3X Since 1980

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Drought

Floods

Storms

Insurance Information Institute https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-global-catastrophes

Number Of World Natural Catastrophes, 1980-2017

Insurance Information Institute

In the World

Report: Cost of US climate disasters will increase 50% to $360B/yr in next decade.

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75% of the North Pole Ice is Gone

“We’ve lost about half of the extent, we’ve lost half of the thickness, and if you multiply these two things, we’ve lost 75 percent of the September sea ice,” said the University of Washington’s Axel Schweiger, who runs the PIOMAS analysis of arctic sea ice. - Washington Post, Dec 11, 2018

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.797b37532dc1

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The Jet Stream is Slowing

A new study says that Greenhouse gases are increasingly disrupting �the jet stream, a powerful river of winds that steers weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere. That's causing more frequent summer droughts, floods and wildfires.

“The findings suggest that summers like 2018, when the jet stream drove extreme �weather on an unprecedented scale across the Northern Hemisphere, will be 50 percent more frequent by the end of the century if emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate pollutants from industry, agriculture and the burning of fossil fuels continue at a high rate.”

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https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31102018/jet-stream-climate-change-study-extreme-weather-arctic-amplification-temperature

Oct 31, 2018

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UCS: New Mexico Climate Impacts

New Mexico is getting hotter and drier and weather patterns are changing.
Reservoirs like Elephant Butte near T-or-C are drying up.
The average temperature in NM has increased by 2.7°F since 1970.
Less snowfall and shorter, warmer winters have led to reduced mountain snowpack and lower stream flows in the rivers that feed reservoirs. Thus there is less water for agriculture, making crops harder and more expensive to grow.
Higher temperatures, shorter winters and reduced rainfall have caused increases in wildfires. The NM fire season has lengthened by 2 months over the last 40 years, from five months to seven, and fires over 1000 acres occur twice as often.
Increased heat and drought also makes trees and forests weaker and less able withstand insect attack.
The NM state tree, the Piñon pine suffered massive die-offs in the early 2000’s.

“As many as 350 million piñons died across the West, with the greatest mortality in the northern New Mexico foothills of the southern Rocky Mountains.
The US Forest Service projects that piñons could disappear from much of their current range by 2030”

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https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/04/Climate-Change-New-Mexico-fact-sheet.pdf

2016 report, Confronting Climate Change in New Mexico

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August 2019 Was 6°F Hotter than Normal

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/albuquerque-nm/87102/month/349680?monyr=8/01/2019

average high

average low

Temps in Albuquerque

August temps in Albuquerque averaged 6°F above normal and ended the month a full 10°F above normal

10°F

Aug 2019:

93F Average hi

87F Normal hi

normal high

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Our Current Path: 450ppm by ~2035

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CO2

Dr. Charles Keeling 1928-2005

450ppm CO2 is cited as driving dangerous 2.0C warming

Dr. Hansen’s limit

2035

450

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

Citation for 450ppm as trigger for 2C:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/

Worldwide emissions = 41GT/year of CO2

1988: Dr. James Hansen testifies at US Senate, warns of climate danger. Bill McKibben publishes The End of Nature

MLO is located on the north flank of Mauna Loa Volcano, on the Big Island of Hawaii. Due to its remote location in the Pacific Ocean, high altitude (3397 meters, or 11,135 feet above sea level), and great distance from major pollution sources, MLO is a prime spot for sampling the Earth's background air in the well mixed free troposphere.

Humans add about 40GT of CO2 to the atmosphere every year. In 2017 it was 41 GT. (37 from fossil fuels and industry + 4M from land use, ie deforestation)

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/11/climate-change-carbon-emissions-rising-environment/

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/08/20/atmospheric_co2_humans_put_40_billion_tons_into_the_air_annually.html

Citation for 450ppm being the trigger for 2C

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/

A target of 450 parts per million (ppm) CO₂ in the atmosphere is widely regarded as synonymous with keeping mean global temperature by 2100 to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Though achievement of that target, probably by 2030, is likely to result in mean global temperatures dangerously in excess of the predicted 2°C.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/why-450-ppm-is-not-safe.html

Slope of the Keeling curve from 1995 to 2015 is 40ppm in 20yrs or 2.0ppm per year. If it continued linear growth we’d reach 450 about 2039. But the slope is still increasing.

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Future Warming, by Degree

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http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/warming_world_final.pdf (2011)

* http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/07/150721-james-hansen-sea-level-rise-climate-change-global-warming-science/

Decade	Warm-ing °C	% Loss in Crop Yields	Commentary
2020’s	+1°C	-10%	2x-4x worse wildfires, drought in SW, coastal flooding
2030’s	+1-2°C	-20%	Major food shortages (corn, wheat); coral reefs dying; increasing extreme weather. Miami 1m underwater.
2040’s	+2°C	-30%	Most summers hotter than 2003 EU heat wave. 30% of species risk extinction. 4x-8x worse wildfires. Pervasive drought in sub-tropics. 10+ million climate refugees. Extensive starvation.
2050’s	+3°C	-40%	40%-70% species extinction; 90% of coral. Amazon & boreal forest dieback. Decline in all cereal crop yields in Africa. Release of CO2 & methane from permafrost, tripling from 1.5C. Wars. Mass starvation.
2060’s	+4°C	-60%	Game over. Ecosystem supports <1 billion people. Climate likely past tipping points for further warming.

From: National Academy of Sciences, 2011, the US National Climate Assessment, 2014 & UK Met office

Worst case, if we don’t rapidly change course (RCP 8.5)

See New York Magazine, July 9, 2017. The Uninhabitable Earth

A global food deficit could hit at 2.5°C

Warming deg C by decade from IPCC report RCP8.5 BAU scenario.

RCP = representative concentration pathways

50% of coral reefs have died in the last 30 years per Canada’s U. of Victoria ’link. 90% could be dead by 2050. Also per UNESCO

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/climate/coral-reefs-bleaching.html

By midcentury, climate models suggest, most reefs will experience the sort of heat associated with severe bleaching every year.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/environment-90-percent-coral-reefs-die-2050-climate-change-bleaching-pollution-a7626911.html

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5960

UNESCO 2017 https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/coral-reef-bleaching-global-warming-unesco-sites/

New York Magazine, July 9, 2017. The Uninhabitable Earth

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/3/034006/pdf/1748-9326_9_3_034006.pdf

In 2003 across Europe as a whole, the heatwave cost between 22,000 and 35,000 lives. Agriculture was devastated. Farmers lost $12 billion worth of crops, and Portugal alone suffered $12 billion of forest-fire damage.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/29/climate-change-scientists-4c-temperature

A rise of 4C could be seen as soon as 2060 in a worst case scenario, according to research in the same journal, led by the Met Office's Richard Betts and first revealed in the Guardian last year.

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69% Worried About Global Warming

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http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-American-Mind-December-2018.pdf

Yale program on climate change communication

72% of polled Americans say global warming is personally important to them.
73% accept that global warming is happening, up 10pts since 2015
62% grasp that humans are the cause
2/3 say global warming is affecting weather
But only 20% know that >90% of scientists concluded that human caused warming is happening

Dec 2018

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Gallup Poll on Global Warming

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Gallup Poll May 11, 2018

http://news.gallup.com/poll/234314/global-warming-age-gap-younger-americans-worried.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=TOPIC&g_campaign=item_&g_content=Global%2520Warming%2520Age%2520Gap%3a%2520Younger%2520Americans%2520Most%2520Worried

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IPCC Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C (Oct 6, 2018 link )

We have <12 years to cut global CO2 emissions in half, by 2030

In half again by 2040

And to zero by 2050

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https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/10/ipcc-report-climate-change-impacts-forests-emissions/

CO2 emissions now, 41 billion tonnes/year

This must be our goal

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US Greenhouse Emissions (2016 EPA)

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https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/us-greenhouse-gas-inventory-report-1990-2014/

Gases

Sectors

oil / gas / diesel

coal / methane

methane / oil

methane

cows / land

Source:

These greenhouse gases drive the climate crisis

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Key Solutions:

Close coal & gas power plants & replace with 100% Renewable Electricity generation
Electrify everything, ie all FF consumption including transportation and heating
Transform agriculture & land use with regenerative and carbon negative practices. Protect and restore natural ecosystems that draw carbon from the atmosphere.
Change to a sustainable food system

This must be a Just Transition that cares for the needs of affected workers and communities

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Nov 2019

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Energy Transition Act Signed

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https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/legislature/lujan-grisham-signs-landmark-clean-energy-bill/article_2f688134-3b7c-58f7-ba0a-4d520036657e.html

350NM’s Jim Mackenzie and Tom Solomon with NM Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham

NM Climate Coalition with NM Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham and legislative leaders

100% carbon-free electricity by 2045

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Wind & Solar: The Cheapest Energy

“On an LCOE basis, onshore wind is the cheapest form of electricity; utility-scale thin-film solar PV is the second cheapest.” – Lazard Investments & Banking

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https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2018/

Wind costs dropped �69% over 9 years

Solar costs dropped 88% over 9 years, unsubsidized

Source: Lazard, Nov 2018

Utility Scale solar costs $1.05 per W installed in Q4 2017 https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2017-year-review

Per Lazard 2017, that is $5c per kWh LCOE. PPAs for Xcel Jan 2018 for solar were 2.95c/kWh. NV energy quoted 2.3c in June 2018

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/as-corporate-ppas-surge-consultants-aim-to-bring-lower-prices/526585/

In January, Xcel Energy received a median bid price of $21/MWh for wind-plus-storage projects and $36/MWh for solar-plus-storage projects

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nv-energy-23-cent-solar-contract-could-set-new-price-record/525610/

What is a 1MWhr? It is enough power to run 814 avg homes for one hour

In 2016, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,766 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of 897 kWh per month. (EIA)

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97&t=3

So the avg home consumes about 1.23kW over 365x24. Thus 1MWh would run about 814 homes for one hour.

897/730.5hrs in a month=1.23 kW. 1000kW/MW/1.23 = 814 homes for one hour

https://www.lazard.com/media/450337/lazard-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-110.pdf/