Messaging and Strategies on Abortion

Celinda Lake

August 2022

Lake Research Partners

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com�202.776.9066

1

Overview

• National polls show voters disapprove of overturning Roe.
• Voters think a Democratic woman would handle abortion better than a Democratic man or a Republican candidate.
• Half of likely 2022 voters would be more likely to vote in this year’s elections if a Democratic woman candidate took a strong stand on protecting access to abortion.
• Favorability toward the Republican Party has declined since late May.
• Voters nationwide, including in battleground states, are more likely to support Democrats who share their views on abortion than Republicans.
• Nationwide, Independents are more likely to support the Democratic candidate, giving them a 36-point lead over the Republican candidate who would ban abortion nationwide.
• Democrats and pro-choice voters in four battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – are mobilizing to turn out in November in response to abortion laws in significantly higher numbers than Republicans or voters who oppose abortion in each state.
• A majority of voters support a federal law to protect right to contraception, same-sex relationships, and same-sex marriage. Over half of voters are concerned the Supreme Court decision could make IVF illegal.
• There is specific language that helps when communicating about abortion and abortion bans. For example, using language like “dismantle” and “unravel” helps people visualize what’s happening, rather than using words like “decimate,” “destroy,” “gut,” which can make people feel helpless.
• Messaging needs to be values-oriented. Freedom is the top value, followed by empathy—everyone should have the freedom to decide, everyone has unique circumstances, and everyone should decide for themselves.

​

​

​

​

​

2

The Issue Agenda

$$$

3

The top issue for Biden and Congress to focus on is inflation, followed by jobs and the economy. In early July, abortion was slightly more salient.

Select the top four issues that you feel are most important for President Joe Biden and Congress to focus on.

August Navigator #1, Aug. 11-14, 2022. 1387 total interviews. MOE +/- 3.1%.

4

Voters say their top issue when voting for federal offices will be economic issues, followed distantly by women’s issues.

Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress?

Morning Consult. August 19-August 21, 2022 among a sample of 2005 Registered Voters.

5

Women’s issues like birth control, abortion, and equal pay are more likely to be the top issue in the midterms for women than men. Democratic women are especially likely to say this is their top issue. ��Women’s issues are also more likely to be Gen Z voters’ top issue. ��More atheists than evangelicals say this is their top issue.

Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress?

Morning Consult. August 19-August 21, 2022, among a sample of 2005 Registered Voters.

6

A solid majority of voters say abortion will be important in their vote for Congress this year. Abortion is especially important to women, Democrats, liberals, and Black and Hispanic voters.

How important will each of these issues be in your vote for Congress this year? ABORTION

CBS/YouGov. August 24-26, 2022. 2,126 registered voters nationwide. MOE +/-2.4.

7

Perceptions of Democrats and Republicans on Abortion

8

Voters nationwide give a Democratic woman elected official a clear advantage over a Republican man and a Republican woman on handling the issue of abortion. A Democratic man elected official also has a significant advantage on handling the issue over a Republican man.

Lake Research Partners designed this survey on behalf of the Barbara Lee Political Office that was administered by Caravan in an omnibus survey conducted online on May 13-15, 2022. The survey reached a total of 666 likely 2022 voters. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have volunteered to participate in online surveys and polls. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of likely 2022 voters. The sample was weighted by gender, region, age, race, race by gender, and education to reflect attributes of the actual population

Who do you think would handle the issue of abortion better?

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

+23

+16

+12

9

By two points, voters find the Democratic Party net unfavorable now, compared to -17 for the Republican Party. AAPI voters are now net +30 for Democrats and -40 for Republicans.

Net Fav.

Net Fav.

Navigator nationwide surveys of registered voters. Each wave Represents approximately 1,000 interviews taken over the prior 3-5 days. Latest wave conducted Aug. 11-14, 2022.

Please indicate how favorable or unfavorable you are to: THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Please indicate how favorable or unfavorable you are to: THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

10

Attitudes toward the Dobbs Decision and Voting

11

Public opinion following the Supreme Court decision indicates strong support for candidates who share their views on abortion.

• Americans who think abortion should be legal in most or all cases are now as likely as those who think abortion should be illegal in most or all cases to say they will only vote for candidates who share that view (34% vs. 31%).
• In 2020, only 15% of those who said abortion should be legal in most or all cases would only vote for a candidate who shared that view, compared to nearly double (29%) among those who think abortion should be illegal in most or all cases.
• More than four in ten Democrats (43%) now indicate they are much more likely to only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, up from 17% in 2020.
• This is the first time that PRRI has found Democrats to be more likely than Republicans (31%) to say a candidate must share their view on abortion to get their vote.

PRRI. 2,038 adults (ages 18 and over) living in all 50 states in the United States and who are part of Ipsos’s Knowledge Panel. Interviews were conducted online between June 24 and 26, 2022. The margin of error for the national survey is +/- 2.3 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence, including the design effect for the survey of 1.1.

12

Against a Republican who wants to ban abortion nationally, a Democrat who supports abortion access has an 18-point advantage on a Congressional ballot (54% Democrat to 36% Republican). Among Independents, the Democrat has a 36-point lead (48% Democrat to 12% Republican, 40% undecided).

13

Over four in ten votes say overturning Roe impacted they way they think about their vote choice in the 2022 midterms. Among those impacted, over two-thirds support Democrats more now.

CBS/YouGov. August 24-26, 2022. 2,126 registered voters nationwide. MOE +/-2.4.

14

Battleground state voters will vote Roe v. Wade and are more likely to agree with Democrats than Republicans on abortion.

• Battleground state voters support Roe v. Wade by a wide margin of 68% to 32%, including a majority of 51% who strongly support it.
• Forty-nine percent say the issue of abortion will be very important to them in deciding how to vote this year – with more Democrats (59%) than Republicans (41%) saying that the issue will be very important to them.
• Nearly three-quarters of Democrats say abortion will be more important to their vote this year compared to other years.
• Fifty-six percent of battleground state voters say they would agree more with a Democrat who favors keeping abortion legal, including later in pregnancy, than with a Republican who favors making abortions illegal, including later in pregnancy.

Hart Research Associates and Normington Petts conducted a survey on behalf of EMILY’s List among 1,505 voters in eight key battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). The interviews were conducted May 21-31. The party identification of survey respondents is 46% Republican, 45% Democrat, and 9% independent.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

15

Voters across four battleground states (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin) are largely disappointed, worried, angry, and frustrated at the prospect that the right to abortion will be severely restricted in their state.

Arizona

Wisconsin

Georgia

Pennsylvania

Lake Research Partners fielded this survey on behalf of MoveOn of 300 likely 2022 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as 200 Democratic surge voters across the four states, between June 6-14, 2022 (before the Dobbs Supreme Court decision). The survey fielded between June 6-14, 2022. The sample was drawn from an online panel and screened to be likely 2022 voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for each state is +/-5.7%.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

If the Supreme Court of the United States does overturn Roe v Wade…how would you feel if the right to abortion is severely restricted in your state? You may select up to 2 feelings.

16

‘Slippery slope’ outcomes of overturning Roe – bans on interracial marriage and contraception – raise the most serious doubts about hypothetical candidacies. Majorities, with the exception of Georgia, have serious doubts about candidates who support abortion bans in extreme cases and who would even ‘question’ people who miscarry. Paving the way for felony convictions and civil suits also raises serious doubts for majorities in most states. Restricting LGBTQ rights and suing abortion providers elicits fewer doubts in Georgia.

Lake Research Partners fielded this survey on behalf of MoveOn of 300 likely 2022 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as 200 Democratic surge voters across the four states, between June 6-14, 2022 (before the Dobbs Supreme Court decision). The survey fielded between June 6-14, 2022. The sample was drawn from an online panel and screened to be likely 2022 voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for each state is +/-5.7%.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

Here are some statements about a candidate. Does each statement raise SERIOUS doubts, SOME doubts, MINOR doubts, or NO REAL doubts in your mind about the candidate, or does it not make a difference?

17

Protecting access to non-surgical abortions via telehealth, funding abortion access for low-income people, or even talking about when life begins (‘at conception’) comprise somewhat less potent attacks on anti-choice candidates. Bans on LGTBQ rights, including marriage, fails to resonate with Georgia voters to the same extent as elsewhere.

Lake Research Partners fielded this survey on behalf of MoveOn of 300 likely 2022 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as 200 Democratic surge voters across the four states, between June 6-14, 2022 (before the Dobbs Supreme Court decision). The survey fielded between June 6-14, 2022. The sample was drawn from an online panel and screened to be likely 2022 voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for each state is +/-5.7%.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

Here are some statements about a candidate. Does each statement raise SERIOUS doubts, SOME doubts, MINOR doubts, or NO REAL doubts in your mind about the candidate, or does it not make a difference?

18

Motivation to Vote

19

Voters are either motivated to vote to support abortion rights or say their vote isn’t about abortion. Women, Democrats, younger voters, liberals, moderates, and Black and Hispanic voters are voting to support abortion rights.

Will your vote for Congress this year be in support of abortion rights, to oppose abortion rights, or not about abortion?

CBS/YouGov. August 24-26, 2022. 2,126 registered voters nationwide. MOE +/-2.4.

20

A Democratic Woman Candidate Taking a Strong Stand to Protect Abortion Access Makes Voters More Likely to Vote.

If a Democratic woman candidate took a strong stand on protecting access to abortion, would that make you more or less likely to vote in this year’s elections, or does it make no difference?

Lake Research Partners designed this survey on behalf of the Barbara Lee Political Office that was administered by Caravan in an omnibus survey conducted online on May 13-15, 2022. The survey reached a total of 666 likely 2022 voters. Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have volunteered to participate in online surveys and polls. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of likely 2022 voters. The sample was weighted by gender, region, age, race, race by gender, and education to reflect attributes of the actual population

• Half of likely 2022 voters would be more likely to vote in this year’s elections if a Democratic woman candidate took a strong stand on protecting access to abortion.

​

• Four-in-ten say it would make no difference, and few say it would make them less likely or they are unsure.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

21

Among voters who say Women’s Issues are their top issues, over a third are extremely enthusiastic to vote in the midterms, and more than three in four would vote for a Democrat if elections were held today. Women’s Issues voters are very concerned about inflation, but less so than other voters. Voting to address abortion access and voting to address inflation are not mutually exclusive.

Thinking about the November 2022 midterm elections for U.S. Congress, how enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the midterm elections?

If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for?

Among voters who say Women’s Issues are their top issues

How concerned are you, if at all, about each of the following? INFLATION

Morning Consult. August 19-August 21, 2022 among a sample of 2005 Registered Voters.

22

Democrats and pro-choice voters in four battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – are mobilizing to turn out in November in response to abortion laws in significantly higher numbers than Republicans or voters who oppose abortion in each state.

�

^[1] Pro-choice is defined as voters who believe abortion should be generally available or that regulation of abortion is necessary although it should be remain legal in many circumstances.

^[2] Anti-choice is defined as voters who believe all abortions should be made illegal or who believe abortion should only be legal in the most extreme cases, such as to save the life of the person or in the cases of rape and incest.

Does [overturning Roe v Wade/banning abortion] make you VERY motivated to vote in November, SOMEWHAT motivated to vote, NOT too motivated to vote, or NOT at all motivated to vote? (Data from combined split sampled questions)

Lake Research Partners fielded this survey on behalf of MoveOn of 300 likely 2022 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as 200 Democratic surge voters across the four states, between June 6-14, 2022 (before the Dobbs Supreme Court decision). The survey fielded between June 6-14, 2022. The sample was drawn from an online panel and screened to be likely 2022 voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for each state is +/-5.7%.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

23

Pro-choice voters in each state are significantly more likely to engage on the issue by voting for candidates who pro-actively support abortion access, than anti-choice voters are to vote for candidates who support banning abortion.

�

^[1] Pro-choice is defined as voters who believe abortion should be generally available or that regulation of abortion is necessary although it should be remain legal in many circumstances.

^[2] Anti-choice is defined as voters who believe all abortions should be made illegal or who believe abortion should only be legal in the most extreme cases, such as to save the life of the person or in the cases of rape and incest.

How likely would you be to take any of the following actions when it comes to abortion access—very likely, somewhat likely, a little likely, or not likely at all?

Lake Research Partners fielded this survey on behalf of MoveOn of 300 likely 2022 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as 200 Democratic surge voters across the four states, between June 6-14, 2022 (before the Dobbs Supreme Court decision). The survey fielded between June 6-14, 2022. The sample was drawn from an online panel and screened to be likely 2022 voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for each state is +/-5.7%.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

�

�

*Split Sampled Question. Asked of 150 voters in each state.

24

Messaging

25

Candidate positions elicit much stronger reactions than pro-choice messages. Two in five voters outside of Georgia and half of surge voters are energized by a message that ‘a right is a right no matter your zip code,’ referring to a patchwork of state-level legislation that will follow Roe’s fall.

Here are some statements that a candidate might say about abortion. For each, select if you find the statement very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not convincing at all as a reason to vote in November.

Lake Research Partners fielded this survey on behalf of MoveOn of 300 likely 2022 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as 200 Democratic surge voters across the four states, between June 6-14, 2022 (before the Dobbs Supreme Court decision). The survey fielded between June 6-14, 2022. The sample was drawn from an online panel and screened to be likely 2022 voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for each state is +/-5.7%.

*Study done before the Supreme Court decision on Dobbs

26

DO: Talk about every abortion ban as part of a broader effort to control your body and decisions, interfere with decisions best made with your doctor & loved ones

DON’T: Focus on the “cut-off” week of the ban

​

DO: Use language like “dismantle” and “unravel” to help people visualize what’s happening (“Our rights are being dismantled brick by brick”)

DON’T: Use words like “decimate,” “destroy,” “gut” – can make people feel helpless

​

Messaging recommendations provided by PPFA.

27

DO: Talk about how safe self-managed abortions are (i.e. abortion pills)

DON’T: Talk about “coat hanger abortions;” it feeds into the stigma that abortions are not safe

​

DO: Say abortion bans, abortion later in pregnancy

DON’T: Say “heartbeat bills,” later-term abortion, partial birth abortion, born alive

Second messaging recommendation provided by PPFA.

28

THEY confuse or avoid ownership of the issue:

a. “I am pro-life but favor exceptions for rape and incest”

b. “Abortion policy should be left up to state and local governments”

​

YOU do not let them get away with this.

Remind people the true motivation:

Anti-choice politicians do not believe women should have the right to make the most personal and private decisions that affect their lives, health, and their families.

​

These politicians support taking away the ability of women to control their own bodies and lives and want to give that power to politicians.

Common Traps and Questions provided by NARAL Pro-Choice America.

29

THEY want to use science:

“Science has progressed since Roe v Wade, etc. etc.”

​

YOU do not counter with science. Instead bring it back to:

Each pregnancy is different and everyone’s circumstances are unique, which is why women should be trusted to make the decision that is best for their situation, without the interference of politicians.

One size fits all bans and restrictions put pregnant women in danger and prevent medical providers from offering the best healthcare to their patients.

Common Traps and Questions provided by NARAL Pro-Choice America.

30

Talking about Medication Abortion Bans

The decision about whether, when, or how to become a parent is one of the most important life decisions we make. Each of us should be free to make the decisions that are best for our lives and our families, whether that is ending a pregnancy, making an adoption plan, or choosing to parent.

​

Medication abortion care is a safe and effective way to end an early pregnancy, but anti-abortion politicians are doing everything they can to make it difficult or impossible for people to get the care they need.

​

Bills that restrict access to medication abortion care are part of an agenda to ban abortion, plain and simple. Our ability to make decisions about our lives and futures, including the decision to have an abortion, is on the line.

​

All the restrictions on abortion show why we must take action. It’s time to ensure that abortion is not only legal, but also accessible and affordable for all people.

Messages provided by COMS Project, EMAA Project, and All*Above All.

31

Talking about Health Care Denials and Refusals

• This is complicated, contested terrain. A short debate is better. This is a health care issue more than a rights issue.
• Voters disagree with the idea that organizations and professionals should refuse or deny care. They believe organizations and professionals should be required to provide patients all standard medical care. By a four-to-one margin, voters align with a statement that a health care professional is obligated to help a patient get the care that they need regardless of their own views over a statement that it doesn’t make any sense to require a health professional who doesn’t want to provide a treatment or procedure to provide it.
• Caring for all and patient-centered care are core. A core values statement is a patient’s health and well-being must always come first.
• Engaging in this debate increases agreement with laws that prevent withholding relevant patient information, require referrals to another accessible provider, and maintain the same access to medical services after a merger or buy-out.
• Voters disagree by wide margins that health care professionals and organizations should be permitted to refuse to provide health care because of their own religious views or affiliations to

1. a person who identifies as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or queer seeking health care.

2. a transgender person seeking basic health care.

3. a transgender person seeking care to “change their sex.”

• Voters split between agree and disagree on refusals for a person seeking abortion care, but intensity is on the disagree side.
• Use the voices of providers, especially doctors. Voters are less responsive to personal stories.
• There is important targeting by race and religious affiliation.

​

​

​

Lake Research Partners and HIT Strategies designed and administered this online survey. The survey fielded from September 21 to October 3, 2021. The survey reached 1,001 registered voters nationwide. It also included oversamples of 150 African American, 150 Latinx, 150 AAPI, and 150 Native American registered voters, an oversample of 150 LGBTQ+ registered voters (50 LGBTQ+ white people and 100 LGBTQ+ People of Color). Survey respondents were drawn from an online panel of listed adults and screened to be registered voters and weighted to be reflective of the electorate. The margin of error for registered voters is +/-3.1%.

32

Talking about Late-Term Abortions

• Emphasize that abortion later in pregnancy is extremely rare (<2% of all cases) and almost always because something in the pregnancy has gone seriously wrong.

​

• When people are making difficult, complicated, personal medical decisions, one-size-fits-all laws don’t work. We know that someone may end a pregnancy for different reasons. A family could learn later in pregnancy there is a very serious fetal anomaly.

​

• A parent’s job is to protect and care for their children. Parents are the ones who have to deal with the consequences of difficult decisions. Out of deep love, some choose abortion.

​

• When it comes to abortion or pregnancy loss, politicians in Washington, DC and state capitals can’t know what families are going through. They are going to hurt real people going through complicated issues with their one-size-fits-all restrictions.

​

Messaging guidance provided by NARAL Pro-Choice America.

33

34

Strategic Recommendations

1. Lead with the powerful value of freedom.

​

• Drive empathy and urgency with a broad range of stories.

​

• Double down on uncaring politicians who only want to stay in power.

​

• Channel determination to invigorate the fight.

35

Appendix: The Kansas Ballot Measure

36

Kansas voters recently rejected a ballot measure that would have limited abortion access. The rejection itself is a win for protecting the freedom to choose, but the surge among women, Democrats and Republicans alike who registered and turned out to vote No and protect abortion access implies that this issue is particularly important to voters. The benefit (and caution) of this initiative is that it is easier to convince voters to reject rather than accept a ballot measure, but additional framing, such as taking away personal decision-making, was also effective messaging used in ads to encourage voting no.

• There was a large surge and largely female vote that rejected the anti-choice position, including one in five Republicans. Seventy percent of Kansans who registered to vote after the Dobbs decision was handed down on June 24th are women.
• There was a surge in women’s and Democrats’ registration to vote post-Dobbs.
• There was a tremendous surge in turnout across the board that favored the No side.
• One major caution: this initiative was asking voters to amend the very well-liked Kansas Constitution to take away a guaranteed, protected right.
• Themes: this goes too far, is confusing, is government overreach/a mandate, has no exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the pregnant person, is a slippery slope, takes away personal decision-making or puts personal rights at risk, and changes the Constitution.

Map Source: New York Times

37

Forty-six percent of voters nationwide have heard about the Kansas referendum, including a majority of Democrats. Over half of voters say they support the referendum results, including 54% of Independents. Republicans are split.

38

Nearly two-thirds of voters would vote to protect abortion, including 48% who would definitely vote to protect abortion, if their state had a similar referendum. At least three-quarters of Democratic men and women and Independent women would vote to protect abortion, and at least half would definitely vote this way.

39

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com

202.776.9066

Celinda Lake

clake@lakeresearch.com

​

​

40