Created by Angela Zorn @kyteacher

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION

ESSENTIAL STANDARD

LEARNING TARGET

HS.C.PR.2 Analyze the role of elections, bureaucracy, political parties, interest groups and media in shaping public policy.

We will evaluate how citizen beliefs about government are shaped by the intersection of demographics, political culture, and dynamic social change.

POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

TEST YOURSELF

Which of the following scenarios is an example of the process of political socialization in schools?

1. An English class engages in a heated discussion about Shakespeare's A Midsummer's Night Dream

• Students are required to take an American government course to graduate from high school

• A teacher refuses to discuss who he is voting for in the next presidential election

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• The basketball team uses a paper vote system to decide who should be captain

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TEST YOURSELF

Based on the data shown in the graph, which of the following statements is true about generational opinions towards immigrants?

• Across all generations, opinions toward immigrants have become more favorable at a steady rate over time

• Gen Xers have always had more favorable opinions towards immigrants than boomers

• The Silent Generation had the largest increase in favorable opinions toward immigrants over the period shown

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• In all generations, opinions towards immigrants have become more favorable over time

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TEST YOURSELF

The data displayed in the graph above best supports which of the following statements?

• Ronald Reagan, who won landslide victories in the elections of 1980 and 1984, enjoyed growing public support for the government throughout his presidency.

• Barack Obama’s historic victory in the election of 2008 led Americans to feel higher levels of trust in government than they did during George W. Bush’s administration.

• The war in Vietnam and the Watergate scandal, which occurred during the late 1960s and 1970s, eroded public trust in government that has never been fully rebuilt.

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• The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 had an immediate negative effect on the level of trust Americans felt for the government.

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MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION

What circumstances led to this famous images?

What are some possible explanations for this error?

• Mass Surveys: Pollsters put together a questionnaire that can be given to as many people as possible; only allows for the measure of quantitative data
• Opinion Poll: Taken by sampling a small section of the public in an effort to predict election results or to estimate public attitudes on issues
• Benchmark Poll: Taken at the beginning of a candidate’s run & gives the campaign a benchmark against which they can compare future polls to see how the candidate is faring
• Tracking Poll: Conducted over time, usually with the same group of people, to measure how the group feels about a given issue
• Entrance/Exit Poll: Conducted at voting sites to learn how people voted on election day
• Focus Groups: Pollsters measure the opinion of a small group of people; better for measuring qualitative data about how people feel & think

TYPES OF POLLS

Directions: Use the text box to answer the following questions:

• How might a candidate use an opinion poll to shape his campaign promises?
• How do mass surveys & focus groups differ?

Learn more about the opinion polls.

TYPES OF POLLS

Inspired by Justin Unruh @JustinUnrun16

HOW MIGHT YOU USE FOCUS GROUPS TO ADJUST YOUR STRATEGY THROUGHOUT YOUR CAMPAIGN?

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OPINION POLL

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BENCHMARK POLL

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TRACKING POLL

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SAMPLE

• In order to be scientifically rigorous, a sample must meet certain criteria:
• Must be representative of the larger population it is measuring
• Must be random allowing everyone in a given population an equal chance of being included
• Must include a large population size
• Must include neutral questions
• Must report the poll’s sampling error
• A poll with a plus or minus 3 sampling error is considered to be a good & representative poll

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY

Directions: Use the text box to answer the following question.

• What methods might a pollster use in order to randomize their polling sample?
• How can the wording of questions influence the results of a poll?

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY

How could the pollsters use of landlines to contact respondents skew the results of the survey?

How could the pollsters use of online respondents skew the results of the survey?

• In addition to errors in sampling methodology, poll reliability can be impacted by response biases such as:
• Social Desirability Bias: When filling out surveys, people tend to give a socially desirable answer, even if they don’t follow through with it
• Partisan Non-Response Bias: Recently, Republicans have become less likely than Democrats to respond to polls

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POLL RELIABILITY

Directions: Use the text box to answer the following question.

• What is the social desirability bias?
• What does the partisan non-response bias impact the reliability of polls?

HOW CAN PUBLIC OPINION DATA IMPACT POLICY DEBATES?

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WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Inspired by Amanda Sandoval @historysandoval

HOW CAN PUBLIC OPINION DATA IMPACT ELECTION OUTCOMES?

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WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Inspired by Amanda Sandoval @historysandoval