COVID-19 Trends: �Looking Past First-Order Effects

by Steph Smith

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Disclaimer

• We are not epidemiologists, policy makers, or financial advisors. We do not know what will happen in the markets, private or public. We are here to share data to help you stay informed and make thoughtful decisions about the future; to help you consider what the world may look like, what business you may want to start, or to scenario plan for your current gig.

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• Remember, there are few facts (if any) about the future. This is essential to communicate. We’ll present facts that exist today, that can easily change tomorrow. Be vigilant to not jump to conclusions based on comparable examples from the past. This event is unprecedented. For that reason, future predictions must be interpreted as exactly what they are: guesses.

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• Note: You can find data sources linked in the speaker notes of the presentation or find a full list of resources at the end of the deck.

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One month ago, these

concepts meant nothing...

• Flattening the curve
• Mitigation versus suppression
• Herd immunity
• Economic devastation versus saving lives
• Contact tracing

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And these change quickly. We were focused on flattening the curve. Now that it’s ~flattened, the conversation evolves. This will continue for months.

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A quick recap of how we found ourselves here

“Exponential curves can be gradual until they aren’t. They come at you fast. They drown you. And they keep going and going. Until they don’t. But when is that?” - Azeem Azhar

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“Every Western institution was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic, despite many prior warnings” - Marc Andreessen

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• This is one of the greatest pandemics in our lifetime
• 1 in every 6.6k Americans has already died. In countries like Spain, it’s already more than 1 in every 2k.
• This is the greatest economic contraction since the Great Depression
• Weekly unemployment claims are 5-10x historical numbers
• We’re seeing the largest oil price declines ever in the OPEC era (negative oil contracts! What?!)
• We’re seeing the biggest central bank intervention worldwide
• Normal life has stopped for billions. Most of the world’s largest economies remain in lockdown.
• All of these things are happening simultaneously. This is unprecedented.
• The result? Often partisan topics have become bipartisan (UBI, universal healthcare, privacy, etc.). We are in a new “epoch.”

These are unprecedented times

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• A pandemic crisis
• A supply-chain crisis
• A demand crisis
• A labor market crisis
• An equity market crisis
• An oil price crisis
• A brewing bond market crisis
• A developing currency crisis
• A potential housing market crisis

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates world will “very likely” experience the worst recession since the 1930s, already receiving "an unprecedented number of calls for emergency funding."

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Out of its 189 members, more than 90 of them have asked for financial support. The latest forecasts from the IMF suggest the following 2020 economic contractions:

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US: -5.9%

Europe: -7.5%

Our “new” world

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But still so many questions/unknowns ...

• Can we effectively deploy contact tracing, or is it too late?
• Will large numbers of asymptomatic people make this endeavor impossible?
• Will we be able to test antibodies with confidence? How soon?
• How will mutations and antibody development play into herd immunity?
• Will we see a second wave? How does seasonality play into that probability?
• Will there be a cure or vaccine? If so, when?
• What decisions lead to the lowest number of deaths (net of both health and economic loss)?
• Will businesses be able to survive a “start and stop” economy for months, if not years?
• How will we spur economic growth amidst unprecedented government debt worldwide?

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These uncertainties will determine the shape of recovery

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And the recovery will not depend only on “us”

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Economic Indicators

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Banks, landlords, and other creditors are giving longer grace periods to individuals and businesses. Almost ⅓ of US apartment renters didn’t pay April rent (Source: National Multifamily Housing Council)

There’s a lot going on. First, the “good”:

Unprecedented stimulus

Federal relief was swift and massive: The U.S.’ $4.3 trillion of monetary and fiscal stimulus = 124% of government revenue in 2019. And more is coming.

Loans classified as “grace”

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Now, the “not so good”:

Federal debt at historic highs

Oil prices plummeting

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More “not so good”: Industrial Production

Industrial production (-5.4%) and manufacturing output (-6.3%) saw their largest declines in March, since 1946. All market groups declined, led be motor vehicle output (-28%).

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Consumer confidence is nearing Great Recession levels.

More: Housing Starts and Consumer Confidence

US housing starts dipped by 22.3% in March, the largest decline since 1984.

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And, more...retail sales are down 8.7%. The previous record was -3.8% in November 2008.

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A few more data points ...

• If GDP drops 50% for one month, and 25% for the 2 months following, annual output results at approx -10%! That is assuming the rest of the year operates at normal levels.
• China’s economy shrank for the first time on record, by -6.8%, with most cases concentrated in a single region.
• Most Wall Street companies have chosen to forego earnings forecasts. Many have suspended their dividends.
• Paid searches on Google/Facebook decreased by 20% in the last 30 days.

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• Consider opening the economy a “dial,” not a “switch.”
• Some states already have shelter in place through June 10. Others will extend.
• According to McKinsey, 52% of people said they’re cutting their personal spending (+6% since mid-March).
• Default rates are forecast to be elevated through 2022.
• Starbucks believes we can’t return to “normal” until we have a test and survey technology that can be deployed quickly, based on their Chinese data.
• We can look to Wuhan traffic data to show that mobility doesn’t return immediately, even weeks after the virus is contained.

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Important: this likely won’t be short-term

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In answering these questions, you’ll likely be guided to the perhaps obvious conclusion that the world will likely not rebound in immediate fashion, regardless of what businesses are “open.” Until a vaccine or herd immunity is achieved, we find ourselves in a complicated world.

Questions to ask yourself

• When will you feel like it’s safe for both you and your child to return to work/school?
• When will you feel comfortable flying again? How will you react when someone coughs beside you?
• Will you want your next waiter to wear gloves and a mask?
• What year will you buy your next festival ticket?
• Is there anything that you regularly did/bought pre-COVID that you think you will never do/buy again? (Ex: overnight work trips)
• If a test indicates that you have had the virus, will you feel 100% confident that you can go back to living your life?
• If a test indicates that you have not had the virus, but you only have a 0.5% chance of dying, what chances do you feel comfortable taking? What do you still avoid?

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• During COVID, multiple parts of the economic circle (both up and downstream) are broken.
• And, it’s cyclical. A contraction in supply leads to a contraction in demand, which leads to a further contraction in supply. As this happens, people become more cautious. Others are laid off. Firms want to stay liquid so they spend less. Some go bankrupt.

The economic “circle of life”

Suppliers

Manufacturers

Businesses

Consumers

Landlords

Mortgages

Banks

Helps to finance the rest of the circle

The COVID pandemic has already hit all “rounds” to some degree.

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Even then, not all industries are hit equally. For some, it’s an “ice age”.

OpenTable data

Flight cancellation tracker

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Very few industries are being hit positively...

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Second-, third-, fourth-order effects

• It’s not just restaurants, the box office, and airlines.
• It’s not just the mom-and-pop businesses on Main Street.
• Everything in the economy is connected in some way.
• People that thought they were unaffected are already being met with this reality.

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As demand for their products slows, hardware and software companies cannot invest the same $ into R&D. Layoffs begin.

Movie theaters

Pre-production, post-production, marketing, etc.

Equipment companies

Hardware and software companies

Actors, producers, directors, lighting experts, set scouts, etc.

The “story” behind movie theaters and live TV...

Theaters are completely closed. -100% in revenue. Companies will try to sell their entertainment online. Inexperienced companies will largely fail at this.

Some market share will go to online entertainment. Some of that revenue will disappear entirely.

People directly associated with producing movies will be impacted, as the box office loses money and has less to spend downstream.

People indirectly associated with movie success will be impacted, including computer graphics experts, PR teams, etc.

Individuals farther up the chain won’t have the same cash flow to upgrade equipment. Think processors, animation software, etc. These companies are now losing $.

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“The virus shock does not discriminate across sectors as we initially thought,” Oxford's Gregory Daco told the WSJ.

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Different industries will recover along different timelines...

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The same trickle-down behavior is true within organizations.

“Must haves” end up replacing “nice to haves.”

Directly related to closures

Internal Growth, R&D

Consumer facing roles

Everything else

External Growth/

Marketing

Any positions which become obsolete with closures are the first to go.

Any positions related to previous growth projections that are unsustainable in the current environment will go next.

Any positions related to scaling the team (like recruiting, people ops, etc.) will need to be scaled back. R&D will be lumped into that equation.

With less consumer demand, consumer-facing roles like support and enterprise sales will join the pack.

As R&D is reduced, product and tech teams eventually will be hit, too. Nothing will be “untouched” in an industry or organization.

Bonus: See this layoffs tracker

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SMB hours and wages lost add up quickly

• 73% of Americans indicate that their household income has been reduced.

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Layoffs by industry

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• The combination of just four weeks of unemployment claims have wiped out the 22 million jobs created in an 11 year bull market

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Layoffs already hitting at historic highs,

nearing Great Depression levels

• Unemployment numbers already higher than all recessions up to the 1930’s. Expected to hit 30%; higher than peak unemployment during the Great Depression

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“To get more specific, nearly 50% of jobs in this country are with small businesses. Many are not operating, and have less than 30 days of a cash buffer.” - Bill Trenchard

Under these economic conditions, SMBs are more vulnerable

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For every day that the pandemic continues, companies will go out of business and individuals will default on their loans.

The individual American is also at risk

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The dynamics are also very complex.

No one is 100% a winner. Examples:

• Shipping companies like Fedex and UPS saw a 7.2% increase in low-margin residential deliveries, but a 3% decrease in profitable B2B deliveries through the first 3 weeks of March, with even sharper declines in the forecast. They may have to lay off workers.
• Twitter’s daily usage has increased 23% this year, but ad revenue declined 20% as advertisers started to cut their budgets.
• Zoom added more users in the first 3 months of this year (2.2m) than it did all of last year (1.9m), but privacy concerns have sparked widespread criticism.
• Target saw sales of low-margin products like toilet paper increase, while sales of high-margin products flatlined. Target’s sales rose 20% in March, but the company expects its gross margin to fall through the quarter.
• Big newspapers like The Boston Globe saw traffic spike up to 140%, but expect ad revenue to drop. Local newspapers had it worse: Gannett’s digital subscriptions increased 72% in a week... but its stock is down 80% since February.
• America’s largest mask producer is not operating at full capacity because it can’t secure a long-term contract.
• Despite grocery sales up 20%+, some farmers are throwing food away because people are spending less at restaurants. Egg prices have increased nearly 250% from 84¢ to $2.93 for a dozen in the US this year, while prices for pork belly decreased 56% in just the last 2 weeks, hitting their lowest price since 1999.

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Venture Capital is slowing with the rest

• Venture capital expenditure is down, both in terms of # of deals and total dollars

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What is getting funding?

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What if you’re not these industries?

• Companies of all size must scenario plan, incorporating possibilities where this pandemic lasts for at least 1 year_.

• Imagine you’re 12 months out. What’s the No. 1 thing that you wish you hadn’t spent money on? Cut it today.
• Many advisors are telling their startups to have multiple years of runway. If you are profitable, you have infinite runway. Profitable companies will be king.

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• If you work in media, target companies that may not traditionally advertise (Ex: we had a bakery advertise with us for the first time at the Hustle)
• If your products aren’t selling, pivot to sell new things or information. Here are some pivot examples and a free ebook of 19 companies and how they pivoted.
• If you sell something online, consider using either
• a) freemium plans or
• b) paid acquisition to take market share from competitors. Note how eBay did this to the left, as Amazon cut paid spend.

Additional Tips

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Some of the best companies in history have been started during a recession.

• These dynamics wash our the “nice to haves” for the “must haves”
• There is access to great talent
• When the curve turns around, these companies thrive.
• More on this later in the deck.

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Or, start a new business.

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Changing Behaviors

“Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we’re going to be, and then we mistakenly think that because it’s hard to imagine, it’s not likely to happen.”

- Dan Gilbert, TED Talk 2014

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Changing perceptions….

Unprecedented times lead to people questioning the norm. In this case, it’s forced people to look past tradition.

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Examples of where this is true:

• Face masks in Western nations
• Telehealth/telemedicine
• Remote work
• Digital everything (concerts, museums, schools, workout classes, etc.)

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People have even taken their health into their own hands

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• DIY everything (sanitizer, masks, medical devices, haircuts, sourdough starter kits, microgreens, etc.)
• Digital everything (WFH, digital museums, telehealth, online workout classes, EduTech/tutorials, VPNs, shopping, streaming apps, virtual conferences, etc.)
• Home products (companies like HP and Dell taking off, standing desks, keyboards, blue light glasses, etc.)
• Health/wellness products (quitting smoking, Irish moss, zinc tablets, weights, baby formula, UV light, pull up bar, Brita filters, sleep tips, etc.)
• Personal hygiene products (bidets, hand hygiene products, etc.)
• Gaming and entertainment (Houseparty, Tiktok niches, Nintendo Switch, animal crossing wedding, ukelele, painting, puzzles, garden obstacle courses for kids)
• Tech to support demand (virtual queueing)
• Stranger things (Prepper kits, indoor beekeeping, “How to grow spinach from scraps")

Summary: What are people searching for?

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Niche companies where sales are booming �(from our Trends community)

• Clips and necklaces commemorating past travels
• Digital photo frames
• Male groin trimmer
• Rainy day letters
• Outdoor playgrounds and grills (tripled in the last week or so)
• Alcoholic ice cream
• Online wine (fun fact: California is consuming 43% more alcohol than before the lockdowns)
• Subscription boxes like “Pig of the Month”

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Will all of these last? No.

• There are certain products and services which saw an increase in demand for the short-term, that will not last. Bidets are a great example of this. How do we discern between what will last and what doesn’t?

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This experiment has forced us to try things

• No one asked for the virus, but it’s given us a lot of data to learn from.
• It’s given us an opportunity to determine what is “necessary.”
• This experiment has also forced us to try things that were held back by tradition, privacy concerns, or fear of automation (few of many examples). During a pandemic, these things are thrown out the window. However, when the pandemic subsides, much of this will stick around.
• Some businesses and industries will never return. Internalize this.

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Things already trending

• Many of the things that are skyrocketing during this pandemic were already trending up. Just more slowly, held back for reason X or Y. Now, the pandemic has accelerated adoption.

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Skyrockets

Assessing longevity

Trending up pre-COVID

Trending down or flat pre-COVID

Solves problem during COVID

Doesn’t solve problem during COVID

Ice age

Skyrockets

Dies

Skyrockets

Trending up pre-COVID

Trending down or flat pre-COVID

Solves problem during COVID

Doesn’t solve problem during COVID

Recovery, if survives

Dies

Dies

During COVID

Post-COVID

Assessing business viability during COVID is just as important as assessing its viability post-COVID. We have clues to post-COVID behavior based on pre-COVID behavior. Notice that a company that was dying pre-COVID may have a spike during the pandemic, but unless something fundamentally shifts, it will likely die later. Another important company phenotype: That which struggles during COVID due to restrictions could thrive if it survives this uncertain time. There is an important caveat with the framework above in both scenarios….

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A new world

And of course, with a new world, there must be completely new companies solving completely new problems! (Or problems that existed before, but the friction:cost relationship was less desirable)

We know a lot of wealth will be destroyed, but a lot will also be created. In some cases, there is reason to believe that the world has fundamentally shifted (i.e., things that weren’t as important before now are). Examples:

• Companies focused on hygiene now matter much more
• Travel companies were thriving, but there may be reason to posit people may never travel in the same ways.

Meanwhile, there is little reason to believe that the amount of online users will slow (it’s accelerating due to COVID).

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Here are some search terms that have surged during the pandemic. In my view, only one will remain as relevant post-COVID. Can you guess which one it is?

• "Indoor beekeeping" +4,087%
• "How to grow spinach from scraps" +1,043%
• "Yeastless bread recipes" +4,400%
• "Garden obstacle course kids" +1,850%
• "Good sleep tips" +7,580%
• "Calm during chaos quotes" +6,299%
• “How to cut your own hair” +400%

Some of the queries above have to do with broken supply chains (leading to DIY) which will be fixed, spending an inordinate amount of time at home, or trying to fill time. One of them stands out as something that people are focusing on now that will become embedded in their future behavior: getting a better night’s rest. (PS: Trends wrote a great sleep report here).

Example Exercise

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Stackline compiled the list of the fastest growing and declining categories in eCommerce. Take a minute to consider whether these trends will likely be long-term or short-term, based on the framework on the previous slide.

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Other trends to get the “wheels spinning”

• The emergence of new employment schemes (ex: Breadfunds, UBI, etc.)
• The surge of mental-health tools and services
• A US mental-health helpline has seen its call volume increase 9x year-on-year.
• Therapy chatbot startup Replika says that ~40% of its 500k monthly users see its app as a romantic partner
• Investment in the “new” supply chain (Axios claims 75% of US businesses have experienced supply chain disruptions due to coronavirus.)
• Pets (one of the most recession-proof industries)
• Changing behaviors, like the rise of frugality (car repairs vs. new car sales). Car rentals are also surging (most socially distanced way to travel) in places like Japan.
• What will be the next wave of apps? App Annie disclosed that Q1 2020 had the largest consumer spend on apps ever ($23B), with a 20% increase in time spent on apps. With new legislation to enable people to vote or get married online, there is a ton of opportunity
• Will schools ever be the same again? (Scott Galloway thinks some won’t re-open)
• Searches for "MasterClass" have eclipsed "business school”
• Will things like virtual conferences hold onto market share? O’Reilly ended their in-person conferences forever.
• eSports will thrive. Large sports institutions are already developing digital solutions, like the NASCAR iRacing event which used virtual simulators. Watch hours for Youtube Gaming Live, Facebook Gaming, and Twitch are surging. Twitch surpassed 3B hours watched in Q1.

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• Prior to COVID, there was a “techlash.” This has largely subsided during the pandemic, allowing companies like Apple and Google to have an even tighter grip, through solutions like contact tracing or mobility reports. FAANG will emerge stronger than ever.
• In essentially every scenario Deloitte maps out, we are more reliant on technology.
• There will be a continued rise in emerging technology, including VR, AI, and 3D printing. AI, for example, has been deployed for vaccine and drug identification.
• Again, prior to COVID-19, there was rising fear about privacy, monopolies, and robots “stealing jobs.” These have faded, at least for the short-term, and are being welcomed openly (well, OK, not by everyone). Print and other non-digital advertising will lose market share to large digital giants. Scott Galloway estimates that, among US media firms, the death rate will be 10-20%.

Final prediction: Tech wins. Monopolies rule.

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“Part of the problem is clearly foresight, a failure of imagination. But the other part of the problem is what we didn’t *do* in advance, and what we’re failing to do now. And that is a failure of action, and specifically our widespread inability to *build*.” - Marc Andreessen

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“Will we learn and adapt? We have an opportunity to take something that kills .1% of us and have it make 99.9% of us stronger. Don’t waste it. A virus that kills millions, but serves as a wake-up call for billions? Is COVID-19 a vaccine?”

As Andreessen says, we get out of this by building

• Every industry is up for grabs.
• Pandemics highlight problems in our world. Identify them and then solve them.
• For example, we still don’t have 100% of health records digital. Hospitals were communicating through Excel spreadsheets.

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Some thought-provoking questions to ask

• Why can’t 1m students attend Harvard?
• If there were truly no limits (time, logistics, etc.) what infrastructure do we need right now? Then work backwards.
• Example: widespread testing, the ability for governments to give their citizens money when needed, a flexible supply chain, etc.
• How can we build a modern healthcare system that is as efficient as a new-age SaaS business?
• What will we need in 30 years to tackle climate change? How can we make that economically viable now?

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“Every step of the way, to everyone around us, we should be asking the question, what are you building? What are you building directly, or helping other people to build, or teaching other people to build, or taking care of people who are building? If the work you’re doing isn’t either leading to something being built or taking care of people directly, we’ve failed you, and we need to get you into a position, an occupation, a career where you can contribute to building.” - Marc Andreessen

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Now some additional questions to ask society...

Policy

• How will we define what is an equitable future? What universal basic needs should be given to all citizens? (ex: UBI, universal wifi, etc.)
• What legislation/compliance will change coming out of this? Will medical legislation pivot to move faster on a “net good,” rather than “no bad” basis?
• How do we balance the demand for gig economy workers with the need for these people to have job security, healthcare, etc.?
• How can we keep our information providers accountable and credible?
• What pieces of our privacy are we willing to give up? Where is the line drawn? Why?

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Economics

• Should companies continue to stop quarterly earnings reports and focus on creating long-term shareholder value?
• As firms lay off workers and replace them with robots, how do we reskill the people “left behind?”
• How do we balance what the world needs now, relative to what the world needs in the future? (cc: the mask company unable to secure a long-term contract)
• How do we reward the heroes of today, tomorrow?
• Who is going to pay for all of this?

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Specific Industries

• Will manufacturing be “brought home?”
• How will companies like Airbnb respond to their clear impact on housing market supply and demand?
• Will in-person conferences ever bounce back, or will this be the inflection point for virtual networking?
• What will happen to 2020 graduates? What percentage of schools will never return to their campuses and stick with online learning?

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• John Hopkins Dashboard: Comprehensive dashboard of COVID-19 cases and deaths across each country around the world, along with by county in the United States.
• Tests per country: Dashboard comparing the testing rate of each country, relative to their population size.
• Testing per day: Dashboards showing the number of tests each country is doing daily. You can also see the number of tests done per confirmed case.
• Finding Testing: Searchable database of testing centres in the United States.
• Project N95: Project helping healthcare providers source critical equipment.
• Social distancing scoreboard: Monitor social distancing across the country. See regulatory updates here.
• Covid Act Now: Site tracking the possibility of hospital overload, by location. Also see this projection tool.
• COVID Volunteer projects: Project helping to crowd-source contribution to COVID-related projects.
• RT.Live: Project by Instagram cofounders about the reproduction number, to measure the speed of spread in different places.

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Resources: Virus-related. Full list available here

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• Open Table booking data: Weekly data tracking restaurant reservations around the country.
• COVID news by country: Resource tracking amount of COVID news daily, around the world.
• Tableau case data: Open access to COVID data, which can be used/modeled directly in Tableau.
• SimilarWeb traffic data: Web traffic data aggregated across different industries over time.
• Safegraph foot traffic data: Foot traffic patterns monitored weekly, across different industries, regions, and brands.
• Mobility data: Apple open-sourced mobility trends around the world throughout 2020. Updated live based on routing requests.
• Traffic in Wuhan: Live traffic monitored in Wuhan, China over time. You can get a sense of how this region is ramping back up.
• Airplane cancellation tracker: Spreadsheet updated to reflect the state of major airlines across the world and how much business they have scaled back.
• Homebase data on small businesses: Report up until the end of March detailed the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses, including wages lost and hours worked.

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Resources: Tracking/Data - Full list available here

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• Guide to the CARES Act: Everything you need to know about how the new coronavirus relief bill applies to small businesses.
• Startups flattening the curve: List of startups committed to supporting the COVID-cause.
• Layoff tracker, Hiring freezes, Silver Lining, Job postings, Who is hiring?: Resources tracking people losing their jobs, companies still hiring, and which companies are on freezes.
• SaaS for COVID deals and here: Discounts and free access to various digital tools during COVID.
• Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Report: See how the PPP’s loan disbursements were allocated.
• Weekly startup funding: Tracker starting on March 11 of startups still getting funded by industry, location, and round size.

Resources for SMBs and individuals - Full list available here

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Recommended Reading/Listening

Read

• It’s time to build
• Mary Meeker’s COVID Report
• Oak Tree Capital Investment Letter: Knowledge of the Future
• The Founder's Field Guide for Navigating This Crisis — Advice from Recession-Era Leaders, Investors and CEOs Currently at the Helm
• The world remade by COVID-19
• London Business School: Economics of COVID
• The Virus Changed the Way We Internet

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Listen

• All in pod 1
• All in pod 2

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Appendix

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Potential Scenarios

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Potential Scenarios

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Additional Data Points: Relationship with the “Markets”

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Additional Data Points

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Jobs → Gig Economy

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Worldwide Scope

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Digital Transformation Accelerating

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