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Michael Shadbolt,�Bethlehem College�� shadbolt.michael@gmail.com

Last period relief�with Mr Shadbolt

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[in teaching]�a feeling of unhappiness that something unpleasant is about to happen in the class you are filling in for.

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Song Graphs�(1960’s)

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Songs about rainbows

Songs about hail

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When you slay the dragon,�who gets the loot?

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Ada rolls 37�Bob rolls 58�CeCe rolls 41�Dee rolls 74�Eve rolls 12

Dee wins the ring!

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What is the average winning roll (1-100) from a party of 5 adventurers?

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Song Graphs�(1960’s)

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Cereal

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Song Graphs�(1990’s)

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Why do I always get the Cherry Ripes?

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25

Cadbury Favourites Easter Eggs have 8 mini Favourites bars inside.

They are each randomly selected from 5 different Favourites flavours.

�Someone complained on Cadbury’s FB page they had received 7 Cherry Ripes out of the 8 chocolates.

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A statistician puts the odds of this happening at around�1 in 10,000. Are they correct?

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Is this a Binomial situation? Why?

  • There are a fixed number of trials:
    • 8 Favourites bars in the egg
  • There are only two possible outcomes:
    • Cherry Ripe or “Other”
  • There is a fixed probability of success:
    • Five different bars, so p = 1/5 or 0.2
  • Trials are independent of each other:
    • Yes - the bars are randomly selected

This means we are dealing with a Binomial Distribution with: n = 8, p = 0.2. We want to find P(X=7)

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P(X = 7) = 8.192 × 10-5

�which is

P(X = 7) = 0.00008192

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Cherry Rip-off?

A statistician puts the odds of this happening at around 1 in 10,000. Are they correct?

​

P(X = 7) = 0.00008192

�Take 0.00008192 and find the reciprocal (x-1)

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(0.00008192)-1 = 12207

In other words, the odds are about �1 in 12207, which is close to 1 in 10000.

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Song Graphs�(1990’s)

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Daily QR Code Scans - NZ

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Song Graphs�(2000-2011)

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Contestants have to guess whether a sequence of cards�are higher or lower than the card before it.

2’s are low and Aces are high.

Turning over the same number (a ‘pair’) is an automatic loss.

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The Warehouse

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Play Your Cards Right

  • What are the best cards to have face up?

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  • What's the worst card to have face up?

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  • What's the probability of picking the right answer if you have an 8?

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  • How do the probabilities change from the first guess to the fourth guess?