Congressional Elections

Outcomes

• Congressional election outcomes are shaped largely by two forces we shall discuss here

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• Incumbency and the advantages it brings

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• Party and partisanship

Incumbency Advantage

• Recent elections have been characterized by dramatic change – that often suggest swings to one party or the other
• 2006, Democrats +31 in the House and +6 in the Senate to take back control of both bodies
• 2010, Republicans +61 in the House and +6 in the Senate to take back control of the House; 87 Republican House freshmen for 112^th Congress
• 2014, Republicans +13 House and +9 in the Senate, to take control of Senate
• 2018, Democrats + 41 House, to take control
• 2020, Democrats -13 House (despite Biden win); +3 Senate (to take control with VP Harris, 50-50)
• 2022, Republicans +9 House to take control; but -1 Senate (Democrats retain control)
• 2024, Republicans +4 in Senate and take control

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Incumbency Advantage

Incumbency Advantage

• But most of this change occurs in “open seats”, those vacated by members—died, retired, resigned to move on to other things and frequently run for higher office (especially the Senate)
• Incumbents are very difficult to beat & win at very high rates
• Political scientists have calculated the value of House incumbency
• “Sophomore surge”, difference in proportion of vote won when first elected and in first effort to be reelected
• “Retirement slump”, difference in proportion of vote won in last election and won by your party’s nominee to succeed you
• Together called the “slurge”—each are worth around 8 percentage points until 2000
• Now worth more like 2-3 points—increased importance of party

Incumbency Advantage

Incumbency Advantage

• Why do incumbents win at such high rates?

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• 1. Name recognition

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• Same principle as Eddie Murphy’s character, Thomas Jefferson Johnson in “The Distinguished Gentleman”, his slogan was “the name you know”
• In the House about 40% of voters can recall incumbent’s name, 90% recognize it; figures for challengers, 15% & 60%

Incumbency Advantage

• Name recognition comes from being in office, the media attention which is cultivated by members—particularly with local outlets; the mailings that members send to constituents; the contacts they have with constituents
• Name recognition might be bad—you can be infamous
• But members are continually placed in a positive light, particularly when they control the message which they often do
• Job ratings of Congress in low teens, job approval of people’s House member approx. 50%

Incumbency Advantage

• 2. Money
• Incumbents, regardless of party, have more of it and spend more of it than challengers do
• Money is essential—buys advertising, campaign expertise, direct mail, robocalls etc.
• Note that most of the candidates in these top 50 lists are incumbents as opposed to those in open seats and especially challengers
• This is particularly in the House, Senate receipts and spending often driven by wealth of candidate and size of state
• Note also that many of these incumbents are important leaders or other prominent and well-known members

Incumbency Advantage

2023-24 data

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• Look at Receipt Data, House

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• https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2024/tables/congressional/ConCand8a_2024_24m.pdf

Incumbency Advantage

• Where does money come from?

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• Three main sources

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• 1. Individuals
• Approximately 60-70% from this source for incumbents (please note campaigns differ greatly)
• Individuals give across state and district lines
• $3,300 per candidate per election (as of 2024, indexed)
• Largely motivated by ideology and attraction or aversion to a candidate
• https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2024/tables/congressional/ConCand9b_2024_24m.pdf

Incumbency Advantage

• 2. Parties, national and state & local
• Probably only 1-2% of money from party, again varies tremendously—national party committees limited to $5k per candidate
• Goal is to maximize the number of seats and ensure a majority
• Therefore give in competitive races
• Committees in each body to funnel money to candidates; Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC-Suzanne DelBene), National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC-Richard Hudson), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC-Kirsten Gillibrand), National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC-Tim Scott)

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Incumbency Advantage

• 3. PACs (political action committees), the campaign finance arm of interest groups
• $5,000 per candidate, per election
• Somewhere around 40-50% of money from PACs
• PACs give to those likely to win, they tend to use contributions to win access, as a form of lobbying, rather than to effect election outcomes
• Examples of PACs and their contributions in 2024 races:
• https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2024/tables/pac/PAC4b_2024_24m.pdf

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Incumbency Advantage

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• PACs also give disproportionately to incumbents, because incumbents win—about 86% of PAC money in 2020 House races to incumbents

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• 2024 giving House & Senate, notice the large number of incumbents, particularly those in positions of authority

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• https://www.fec.gov/resources/campaign-finance-statistics/2024/tables/congressional/ConCand8c_2024_24m.pdf

Incumbency Advantage

• 3. Redistricting

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• Note that this could only conceivably be an advantage for House incumbents, no redistricting in the Senate
• What is it? Every ten years there must be redrawing of districts after census so that roughly equal size
• Each state distributed seats up to 435—all must have at least one, draw district lines so that they do not straddle state boundaries
• Drawn by state legislatures as piece of legislation (NC unusual, no gubernatorial veto) – a number of states have bipartisan commissions

Incumbency Advantage

• Map drawers work under some constraints
• Districts are supposed to be contiguous, compact, not drawn to favor racial group, respect “communities of interest”
• 1982 amendments to the Voting Rights Act established “majority-minority” districts for states with a certain proportion of minorities—blacks in South, Hispanics southwest
• Tended to lead to strange looking districts

Incumbency Advantage

• NC 12 after 1990 “snake” of Mel Watt

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• Although race cannot be used as prime reason for drawing; Shaw v. Reno (1993), Shaw v. Hunt (1996)—cases involving NC 12
• In 2017 NC Congressional districts voided as a “racial gerrymander”, Cooper v. Harris

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Incumbency Advantage

• These districts were said to benefit Republicans because they concentrated minorities who tended to vote Democratic—and the best way to distribute voters is “to win by a little and lose by a lot”

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• Drawing districts for the purposes of furthering a political interest is called “gerrymandering”, after Gov. Elbridge Gerry’s effort to draw legislative districts in MA after 1810 census—peculiar district looked like a salamander (Gerry, Madison’s 2^nd VP)

Incumbency Advantage

• “Partisan gerrymanders” prevalent these days, however
• Example, NC after 2010
• Old map, McCain 7-6 over Obama in 2008
• New map, McCain 10-3—of the 10 districts he won about 55% of the vote, in the 3 Obama districts he got about 25-30% of the vote
• Republicans took control of a number of state legislatures in 2010 and drew other partisan gerrymanders
• Democrats do it too & had for decades
• 2020 cycle – litigation in NC, OH, NY, PA – new maps NC for 2024; new maps in TX and CA, mid-decade redistricting unusual
• Partisan gerrymandering assists incumbents after the “upheaval” or redistricting – for the rest of the decade. Why?
• Constitutional challenges?
• US Supreme Court said not justiciable
• But state courts have redrawn—and these upheld

Incumbency Advantage

• 4. Perks of Office
• Members have a number of advantages due to the fact they are members
• They have staff who are generally split about 50-50 between D.C. and the district, the staff at home engage in casework—i.e. helping constituents in their dealings with the federal government; recovering lost Social Security checks, IRS problems, passport issues, visa problems for relatives abroad, establishing eligibility for VA or Medicaid benefits, trips to Washington etc.
• Members cannot “wave a magic wand”, but staff can often help constituents negotiate the federal bureaucracy successfully

Incumbency Advantage

• 4. Perks of Office
• “Pork barrel” spending is federal appropriations that are narrowly targeted at a source in a congressional district or state—defense contract, grant to non-profit or university, new government facility etc.
• In two forms, (1) general spending passed in appropriations bill, MC helps direct prospective recipients through executive branch decision process, (2) earmark, that actually mentions recipient in legislation and therefore need not go through proposal process –a moratorium on them from 2010 has been reversed

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Incumbency Advantage

• Idea is that constituents get the concentrated benefit without having to pay the cost; therefore helps incumbent get support from all types of constituents

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• “Frank”; members are able to send out mail under their signature for free
• Not allowed to electioneer, but can explain positions to constituents, they often send out newsletters explaining themselves in a positive light

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• Office budgets (Members’ Representational Allowance in the House) also allow for travel allowances, members can get back to the district or state very regularly
• The congressional schedule helps this, too—long weekends with Monday evening and no Friday votes, several week-long recesses around major holidays, month of August off

Incumbency Advantage

• With all these advantages, quality challengers are deterred from running—i.e. people with state legislative experience etc.
• Running for Congress very time consuming, costs money, opportunity costs
• If they do run, such candidates are “strategic”, wait for open seats, run against weak incumbents in marginal seats, in midterm year with incumbent’s party occupying the White House
• <20% of House challengers and open seat candidates have held elected office previously
• Therefore get many quixotic “no hoper” campaigns, often seen as “expressive” (i.e. to air particular positions)
• This reinforces incumbency advantage

Incumbency Advantage

Incumbency Advantage

• Remember, data shows Senate incumbents to be more endangered than their colleagues in the House. Why?
• 1. Because Senate challengers are more experienced and widely known.
• Senate is a more prestigious place, although bodies have roughly equal powers there are only 100 Senators and Senate rules gives rank-and-file great power
• House members, governors often run
• As a result, financial resources more evenly distributed

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Incumbency Advantage

• 2. States are much more heterogeneous than congressional districts—ideology and partisanship, race, religion, occupation, industries etc. Think of the many interests you need to balance representing NC in the Senate: banking, tourism, agriculture, tech, universities, Democrats and Republicans, whites and Black Americans etc.
• Easier to construct a legislative record consistent with the interests of your constituents in the House

Party Effects

• But elections are not just an evaluation on the performance of congressional incumbents
• Party plays a huge role, and there are often elections when there are “waves” in favor of one party—and its candidates receive a lift
• Many argue that incumbency advantage is actually diminishing
• Personal attributes and performance of incumbent less important than it was before
• Now voters evaluate the parties
• The performance of the president
• To a lesser extent the performance of the congressional majority

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Party Effects

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• Two major effects at work here

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• 1. Presidential coattails—candidates of the winning presidential candidate’s party are pulled into office on his “coattails”

Party Effects

Party Effects

• Note that these effects seem increasingly attenuated, Obama moderate ones—apart from that just LBJ in 1964 and Reagan in 1980
• Occasions when presidential coattails have been negative, even Clinton in 1992, Trump 2016, Biden (House) 2020

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• 2. Midterm effects—the president’s party loses seats in the midterm, as presidential honeymoon is over and support diminishes

Party Effects

Party Effects

• These effects are much larger—1946 (Dems lose House), 1958, 1966, 1974 (Watergate reaction), 1982 (recession), 1994 (Reps win both House and Senate), 2006 (Dems win both House and Senate), 2010 (Reps win House), 2014 (Reps win Senate), 2018 (Dems win House), 2022 (Reps win House, but can’t flip 50-50 Senate)
• Significant repudiation of the president, taken out on members of his party
• Only 2x since 1934 has the president’s party won seats in House midterms, 1998 as a reaction to republican efforts to impeach Clinton and 2002 in response to 9/11 and the Bush effort to fight terrorism. In both cases the pick ups were very small

Party Effects

• Why is party more important now?
• Organization and directing of individual and PAC contributions by parties, giving candidates access to support from across the country
• Role of congressional leaders in campaigns has increased tremendously
• Polarization in American politics, homogenous districts etc—mean candidates produced by primaries often very different philosophies
• Campaigning on party “platforms”, “The Contract With America” of House Republicans in 1994, “Six for ‘06” of House Democrats in 2006, “The Pledge to America” of House Republicans in 2010, “Commitment to America” of House Republicans in 2022
• Public increasingly partisan, attached to party labels

Party & Incumbency Effects

• To give you an idea of the magnitude of both party and incumbency effects
• In House elections, on average (since about 2000)
• About 75% of voters, vote the party line
• Of the other 25%
• 6 x as many defect to incumbent’s party than challenger’s, many are independents (some of this could, of course, be explained by partisan effects)
• about 12% of voters in House elections leave the challenger’s party to vote for the incumbent’s
• This is going down too—revealing importance of party

Party & Incumbency Effects