Presentation
will start
shortly
Thesis �DOI
Presentation
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 1
Antifragility 202006
Defining Antifragility and the application on
Organisation Design
a literature study in the field of antifragility, applied in the context of organisation design
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 2
Antifragility 202006
About me
Enterprise Engineer
with more than 25 years’ experience
Edzo Botjes
Homepage | |
ORCID |
Born in 1981, in IT since 1993, married 2013
since 2006 @ Sogeti Netherlands,�consultancy for 20 Clients, 30 Assignments,�40+ blogs, two white-papers (book),�many presentation, webinars and articles
MSc @ Antwerp Management School (summa cum laude, 9.5 thesis)
BSc @ Hanze University
ASc @ University of Groningen
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 3
Antifragility 202006
Agenda
03
02
01
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 4
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Problem Statement & �Personal Journey
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 5
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Research Questions
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 6
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Research Approach
Conclusion
Literature�(Rationalisation)
Experts
(Validation)
Leadership�(Relevance)
one-on-one
groups
EAAL model
Antifragile Literature
Literature
one-on-one
groups
7
18
358
87
9
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 7
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
What is fragile and anti-fragile?�What is resilience?
The EAAL framework.
Conceptual Model
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 8
Antifragility 202006
How fragile is your system?
Stress
Fragile
1
Robust
Stress
2
Antifragile
Stress
3
Value
Value
Value
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 9
Antifragility 202006
Resilience
Value
Time
Absorb
Recover
(old) normal
Resilience
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 10
Antifragility 202006
Resilience by Martin-Breen
Time
Engineering
Resilience
Systems Resilience
Time
Complex Adaptive System Resilience
Time
Value
Value
Value
1
2
3
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 11
Antifragility 202006
Engineering
Resilience
Systems �Resilience
CAS�Resilience
Time
Value
Time
Value
Time
Value
Fragile
Stress
Value
Robust
Stress
Value
Antifragile
Stress
Value
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 12
Antifragility 202006
The EAAL Framework
Anti-fragile
Complex Adaptive
System Resilience
Systems�Resilience
Engineering�Resilience
Top-down C&C
Micro-Management
Diversity
Non-Monotonicity
Emergence
Self-Organization
Insert low-level stress
Network-connections
Fail Fast
Learning Organization �(Personal mastery, Shared mental models, Building shared vision, �Team learning, Systems thinking)
Resources to invest
Seneca’s barbell
Insert randomness
Reduce naive intervention
Skin in the game
Amplify Variety
Attenuate Variety
Redundancy
Modularity
Loosely coupled
Stressors incl. black swans
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 13
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Does it make sense?
Research Result
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 14
Antifragility 202006
Research Conclusion
Bonus:
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 15
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Discussion and Limitation
Critical Thinking
Lorem Ipsum
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 16
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Future Research 1/3
Is it possible to design an organisation on a constructional level by applying DEMO and incorporating Game Theory?
Is it possible to: Combine the Complexity Science and Software Engineering methods described by O’Reilly (2019) with Normalized Systems Theory to achieve highly frequent adaptive self-evolving software?
Lorem Ipsum
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 17
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Future Research 2/3
Map the existing EE theories on the EAAL model and extend it with the Eta-B (ηB) theory to design the Enterprise Antifragile Behaviour.
Lorem Ipsum
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 18
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Future Research 3/3
Where is the role of emotions in Systems Theory (as part of Complexity Science) and how can this be applied to organisational design?
Lorem Ipsum
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 19
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 20
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Theoretical background
Deepdive
Infographic Palette
Primary
Storyarc by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Fooled by Randomness�The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
2001
2007
2012
The Black Swan�The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Antifragile�Things that Gain from Disorder
Random things happen all the time
Models are fragile for unexpected things
Antifragile systems survive unexpected things
Keywords: ISO 31000:2018, VUCA, double pendulum, chaos, complexity, hyperconnected graphs, complexity science, Cynefin, digital transformation
Keywords: Plato’s cave, Kant’s “Ding für mich”, Ciborra, replication crisis, correlation vs causality, function vs construction
Keywords: resilience, gain from pain, only way to survive a black-swan, 6
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 22
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
What is Chaos?
Cause and effect are unclear. - Dave Snowden
When the present determines the future, but �the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. - Edward Lorenz
Knowledge of the situation in the now �has no connection to the knowledge of the situation in the future.
You do not see a correlation in your observations.
You do not know any causal relation between action and observation (input/output).
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 23
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
An example of a simple chaotic system
A double pendulum is a pendulum with another pendulum attached to its end, and is a simple physical system that exhibits rich dynamic behavior with a strong sensitivity to initial conditions
�The motion of a double pendulum is governed by a set of coupled ordinary differential equations and is chaotic.
A double pendulum starts simple but with a bit of energy the system becomes chaotic (unpredictable). This is caused by the amplification of very small differences.
1
2
Double Pendulum
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 24
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Nonlinear dynamical systems
Butterfly Effect
https://systemsinnovation.io
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 25
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Randomness in Risk management
Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events.�When a system loses value through a random (stress)event, it is a Fragile system.
Risk is defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives.
Randomness is a special kind of uncertainty.
Risk management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks,
followed by coordinated and economical application of resources �to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events �
or to maximize the realization of opportunities.
Risk Management (ISO 31000) is about Resilience
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 26
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Randomness is the default state of the world
Volatility
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous
Risk management (ISO 31000) states that the world is VUCA.
This term is also used in other business literature and in DevOps.
VUCA originates from 1987 in the US military and leadership literature.
Non-stop randomness is the effect of a highly-connected world that has chaos as result.
The key takeaway is: there is always some fundamental randomness no matter how hard you think about it. This is also called Chaos.
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 27
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
System-of-System & Context
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
Most things in our universe are a recursion.
Not all the things are a nonlinear system.
How do I make sense of it all?
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 28
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Cynefin Framework
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 29
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Cynefin abstract examples
Simple
Complicated
Complex
A set of pentagon tiles is a simple pattern because there are many symmetries, meaning a small set of rules governing the system can be used to generate the whole pattern.
A tangled ball of string is complicated because there are no symmetries to the pattern, this a detailed description of the entire pattern is needed to understand it fully.
Complex patterns involve the interaction between symmetries and asymmetry; a disorder with underlying order, neither too random nor too symmetric.
https://systemsinnovation.io
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 30
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Cynefin - Correlation and/or Causality?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
Cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect, and there are no right answers.
Impervious to a reductionist, take-it-apart-and-see-how-it-works approach, because your very actions change the situation in unpredictable ways.
Events in this domain are too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response.
The first and only way to respond appropriately is action.
The relationship between cause and effect requires analysis or expertise; there are a range of right answers.
Here it is possible to work rationally toward a decision but doing so requires refined judgment and expertise.
This means that there are rules in place (or best practice), the situation is stable, and the relationship between cause and effect is clear.
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 31
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Cynefin - which perspective to use ?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
Holistic
approach
Reductionistic
approach
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 32
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
Cynefin - what to do?
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330500755
Probe
Sense
Respond
Act
Sense
Respond
Sense
Analyze�Respond
Sense
Categorize
Respond
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 33
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
New dominant organizational paradigm.
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/the-five-trademarks-of-agile-organizations
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 34
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 35
Antifragility 202006
Infographic Palette
Primary
About me
Enterprise Engineer
with more than 25 years’ experience
Edzo Botjes
Homepage | |
ORCID |
Born in 1981, in IT since 1993,
since 2006 @ Sogeti Netherlands,�consultancy for 20 Clients, 30 Assignments,�40+ blogs, two white-papers (book),�many presentation, webinars and articles
MSc @ Antwerp Management School (summa cum laude, 9.5 thesis)
BSc @ Hanze University
ASc @ University of Groningen
Interest
Security (PKI) & Privacy
Open Access & Open Source
Human Centered Design
Organic Organisation
Distributed Systems & Organisations
Graph Databases & Relations
LoraWan & Mesh networking
Expertise
Enterprise Engineering
Complexity Science
Infographic Palette
Primary
© CC BY-SA 4.0 Sogeti. All rights reserved 36
Antifragility 202006