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How can Our World in Data be useful to the longtermist forecasting community?

GPI Forecasting Workshop

Charlie Giattino — 29 June 2022

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Goal today: start a conversation

  • I’ll speak for ~5–10 minutes to give my perspective on how OWID can be useful
    • By publishing data, charts, & research used to make and resolve forecasts
    • By highlighting missing/bad-quality/paywalled data that could be useful for making forecasts
    • Share some of our thinking on communicating about forecasts
  • The rest will be discussion to hear your thoughts, answer questions, etc.
  • Always feel free to get in touch: charlie@ourworldindata.org

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We publish data, charts, & research used to

make and resolve forecasts

We are facilitating efforts to forecast OWID — e.g. by making sure we have most recent data

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We publish data, charts, & research used to

make and resolve forecasts

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We highlight missing/bad-quality/paywalled data that could be useful for making forecasts

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We welcome your input:

  • Do you know of other examples of people using our data to make/resolve forecasts? Maybe you’ve done it?
  • What datasets or research would you like to see us publish?
    • Keep in mind that our role is not usually producing our own datasets, as we did with covid vaccinations and testing — don’t have the capacity for this
    • We most often publish data from other primary sources

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Communicating about forecasts: some of our thinking

  • How forecasts are communicated is crucial to getting decision makers to consider and potentially act on them
  • This is challenging and depends on context; we don’t have all the answers
  • But some things that are related to use of forecasts by others → credibility and trust:
    • Demonstrate good track record
    • Write clear, transparent, up-to-date explanations of reasoning
    • Usability of website and inspectability of the forecast
  • People care about who made the forecast
    • Reputable mainstream organizations and people are more likely to be listened to — whether they deserve it or not
    • Anonymity of forecasters may not be helpful

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Thanks!

Thoughts? Questions?

Don’t hesitate to reach out: charlie@ourworldindata.org