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The Last Decade Has Seen a Shift Towards a More Complex Environment

A political and economic climate where policy change is very hard to achieve
Increased understanding that progressive issues are intersectional and can’t be advanced in issue silos
Demographic shifts along multiple dimensions reveal both deep rifts and powerful opportunities

Photo by Gerry Lauzon | CC BY 2.0

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Change in Complexity is Rapid & Unpredictable

Practice that leads to real change is emergent

Cause and effect can only be fully understood in retrospect – and is not necessarily linear

Every part of the system affects and is affected by other parts

Photo by Graham Baker / CC BY 2.0 (adapted)

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Typical Levers & Buttons for Change Don’t Work

Traditional rules of organizational development may not apply
Organizational change has always required looking at governance, structure, staff, and culture – now we have to do it in ways that welcome innovation, experimentation, and adaptation
Leaders at all levels must adapt and innovate, developing new approaches to capacity building, leadership development, strategy, and more

“Complexity theory provides a model for understanding experiences and tensions. It helps me think through how to operate at a different level when the change we’re after is transformative.” – Sarita Gupta, Executive Director, Jobs with Justice

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How Does Complexity Affect Leadership?

Photo by South Bend Voices / CC BY-SA 2.0

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The Cynefin Model: What Sandbox are We Playing In?

Cynefin as of 1st June 2014 by Snowden - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons

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Ordered Systems are Clear and Complicated

Clear Situations

Formerly called “simple” or “obvious.” Relationship between cause and effect is predictable and patterns repeat
Once you make meaning of a situation, it can be solved by almost anyone
Examples: giving water to a guest who shows up thirsty.

Complicated Situations

Relationship between cause and effect is predictable and patterns repeat
With enough expertise and analysis a solution can be found. There may be more than one option.
Example: Feeding three people who are hungry the same meal, one of whom is vegetarian, one who is allergic to nuts, and one who diabetic.

Photo by Kamal Hamid / CC BY-ND 2.0

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Unordered Systems are Complex and Chaotic

Complex Problems

Cause and effect only known in retrospect
It is not sufficient to impose expert solutions
Solutions emerge by experimenting, learning, and adapting
Examples: climate change, transforming the long term care system in the U.S.

Chaotic Problems

Cause and effect are known in retrospect or not at all
Rapid response: you act to move things back into the complicated or complex space
Examples: NY after 9/11, natural disasters

Photo by Scott Darbey / CC BY 2.0

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What Does This Mean for My Work?

Photo by Fibonacci Blue / CC BY 2.0

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Knowing What Space You Are in Saves Heartache

If you take a complicated approach when the problem is obvious (simple), you may waste a lot of time and resources over analyzing and working it
If you apply complicated thinking to a complex problem, you may be frustrated that things are not going according to plan and waste time and resources trying to engineer the “right” answer or to convince others of your plan
We typically revert to the kind of problem solving we are most comfortable in, whether or not it fits the problem space

Not everything is complex!

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Always Think Strategically – �Don’t Write 5 to10-Year Strategic Plans

Developing strategy is now an emergent and iterative process

Building a culture of strategic thinking and adaptation within organizations and networks is necessary
Your organization’s strategy may be heavily influenced by your work in networked spaces
Examining the whole ecosystem is key to managing transition

Organizational structures need to match the circumstances yet be loose enough to adapt and shift in the face of rapid change
A spectrum of leadership at multiple levels needs to be developed to support agility and both the day-to-day and long run work
More frequent experimentation, risk-taking, and ongoing learning are key

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Ideas in Action - Campaigning in Complexity

So, I’ve figured out that my social justice campaigns centered on policies related to climate change are in the complex space.

Does that mean there’s no space for campaign planning or expertise in campaign work?

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Ideas in Action - Campaigning in Complexity

The structure it takes to manage campaigns in an organization and with networks requires not technical solutions to getting it right, but continual adaptation.

Campaign experts are needed in planning, budgeting, monitoring, and implementation

Plans are still needed, but hold them lightly. Set some basic agreements on a shared narrative, goals, and a current assessment of the ecosystem, but then open up the boundaries of planning so you are not caught up by changes in the ecosystem

Have guides and trusting relationships in place so you can make the space to respond to things – and create a culture and mechanisms for quick adaptation when things don’t go as expected

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How Can I Learn More?

Photo by Ignacio Palomo Duarte / CC BY 2.0

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Application is More Art than Science

Application is difficult and takes time
Complexity is rooted in the hard sciences, but is used and adapted differently across disciplines and sectors. As you learn about complexity, how you apply it will change.
Get the obvious and complicated right first – this will reduce anxiety and lead to better results

Photo by Phoebe Baker / CC BY 2.0

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Application is More Art than Science

Application is difficult and takes time
Complexity is rooted in the hard sciences, but is used and adapted differently across disciplines and sectors. As you learn about complexity, how you apply it will change.
Get the obvious and complicated right first – this will reduce anxiety and lead to better results

Photo by Phoebe Baker / CC BY 2.0

What’s Next?

Tools to get you started…Coming soon!

Putting Complexity into Practice for Social Change - Individual & Systems

Level Tools

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Complexity & Emergent Planning Resources

Auspos, Patricia and Mark Cabaj. Complexity and Community Change: Managing Adaptively to Improve Effectiveness. The Aspen Institute, 2014.

Berlow, Eric. Simplifying Complexity. Ted Talk, 2010.

Garvey-Berger, Jennifer, Changing on the Job: Developing Leaders for a Complex World, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA, 2012.

Laloux, Frederic, Reinventing Organizations. Nelson Parker, 2014.

Olson, E. and Glenda E. Facilitating Organization Change: Lessons from Complexity Science. Jossey-Bass/Pfeiffer, 2001.

Pastor, M. and Ortiz, R. Making Change: How Social Movements Work and How to Support Them, Program for Environmental and Regional Equity, University of Southern California, March 2009.

Scharmer, O. Leading from the Emerging Future: From Ego-System to EcoSystem Economies, Berrett-Koehler Pubs., Inc., 2013.

Snowden, D. and Boone, M. A Leader’s Framework for Decision-Making, Harvard Business Review, Nov. 2007.

Snowden, David. Cynefin Framework Video.

Lipmanowicz, H. and McCandless, K., The Surprising Power of Liberating Structures: Simple Rules to Unleash a Culture of Innovation, Liberating Structures Press, 2013.

Mowles, Chris. Complex, but Not Quite Complex Enough: The Turn to Complexity Sciences in Evaluation Scholarship. Evaluation 20(2), 160-175, 2014.

Zimmerman, Brenda et al, Edgeware: Insights from Complexity Science for Health Care Leaders, VHA, Inc., Irving, Texas, 2001.

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