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Welcome To CCL Training!

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In the meantime...

Share in the chat: where you’re calling in from and something you’ve been up to of late with your climate work!
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Follow us online (FB, Twitter, Insta, and TikTok).
Post Q&A in Chat. Slides: cclusa.org/enroads-update

www.citizensclimatelobby.org

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Housekeeping

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En-ROADS Update & Hosting Climate Simulations

July 22, 2021

Presentation Slides: cclusa.org/enroads-update

Welcome to CCL’s Training program, created to help all our supporters, connect with each other around the larger world and empower us to achieve our larger goals for climate advocacy.

Thank you for taking the time to join us tonight. I’m your host Brett Cease and this week’s essential topic is.. .

Join CCL Michigan Liaisons Coordinator Dr. Lisa DelBuono for a training that will review the background, details, and how to host a simulation event with Climate Interactive's climate policy simulator, En-ROADS, built with MIT Sloan. This tool helps groups explore the power of a steadily rising price on carbon through policies like the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act as well as other strategies to address climate change to highlight complementary climate goals including the impact of changes in energy, land use, consumption, agriculture, and other policies.

Put in chat:

https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/

To follow along with tonight’s slides, go to: https://cclusa.org/enroads-update

Updated tomorrow to: https://community.citizensclimate.org/resources/item/19/418

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About Our Speaker

Lisa DelBuono, MD �Retired Physician�CCL MI Liaison Coordinator�Health Action Team Co-Leader

Lisa is a recently retired diagnostic pathologist who has volunteered with CCL since 2013. She now serves as one of Michigan's state coordinators, co-leads the Health Action Team, and has started a non-profit, Michigan Clinicians for Climate Action.

https://states.ms2ch.org/mi/micca/

https://community.citizensclimate.org/groups/home/961

Jerry has given public presentations on climate change since 2001, been lobbying Congress since 2006, and started with CCL in 2011. He started what is now CCL’s Presenters Action Team and the Economics and Science Policy Network Action Teams. He was the Northern California Coordinator for 6 years, served on CCL’s Governing Board for the last 4 years, and as our Economic Research Coordinator for 3 years. Jerry holds MA degrees in Economics and in Climate Policy and has published several articles in these areas. He is committed to leaving a sustainable world for his two amazing daughters.

Andrew Jones is Co-Founder and Co-Director of Climate Interactive. An expert on international climate and energy issues, he is a system dynamics modeler, keynote speaker, and designer of simulation-based learning environments.

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Three Learning Goals

Provide an overview of what a presentation using En-ROADS might look like for your target audience

Walkthrough the considerations and process for how a CCL group or presenter might use the tool in a public event.

Understand the background and details of Climate Interactive’s research to create En-ROADS

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Climate Interactive & �En-ROADS Background

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“Research shows that showing people research doesn’t work.”

-Professor John Sterman

…

“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don’t bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”

-Buckminster Fuller

“

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Recent Progress With Lawmakers

Senate Democrats: 38 members of the US Senate; 20 members of the US Senate staff
House Democrats: 20 staff members representing various individual members of Congress as well as climate and energy committees
House Republicans: 40 staff members representing various individuals members of Congress as well as climate and energy committees
Governors: former Gov. Gina Raimondo (RI)

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Played Around the World

85 countries
551 facilitators
49,447 participants

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External Reviewers of En-ROADS

Dr. John Weyant (chair) - Stanford
Dr. Valentina Bosetti - Bocconi, Italy
Dr. Jae Edmonds - Pacific Northwest National Labs
Dr. Nici Zimmermann - University College London - UK
Dr. Jiang Kejun - ERI China
Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic - IIASA - Austria

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Keep In Mind...

En-ROADS is a global model, not specific to U.S. climate policy alone.
Modeling reliability is greatest in first 10-15 years out, less so thereafter

Important Considerations Before Using En-ROADS

The En-ROADS model is remarkably user-friendly and CCL volunteers have effectively used it to expand their understanding of climate policy levers and to disseminate this information into their communities. The model is particularly useful for illuminating the relative effectiveness of certain policy levers, such as a carbon tax, versus others.

However, CCL Research Staff has evaluated En-ROADS results as they pertain to H.R.2307 and our general advocacy. We have drawn four important conclusions that CCLers should be aware of:

En-ROADS is a global model and, according to En-ROADS staff, its results do not readily translate to U.S. climate policy impacts.
Finally, experts make clear that modeled estimates of global emission reductions from a carbon price are most reliable for 10-15 years, but much less so thereafter. Volunteers and their audiences should understand that such estimates ranging all the way out to 2100 are highly uncertain.

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How To Use The Simulator

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Time For Questions

Click the Microphone Icon Or *6 If On The Phone

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In Person Presentations

With any size group
Ideally one process facilitator, one running simulator
Lead the group through a set of questions
You are their guide and support (their thinking partner), not a presenter or lecturer

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Questions in the Workshop

What are the actions to take on climate that are your preferred solutions?
What would the impact be of a policy like the Energy Innovation Act?
What else is required to deliver on climate goals?

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Example Online Presentations

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Urgency of Mitigating Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that
We need reduce emissions by about 45-50% by the end of the decade
If we wish to keep average global temperature increase ≤ 1.5 °C

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MIT Climate Interactive En-ROADS –

Global Climate Action Simulator

Systems Dynamic Model
Calibrated and tested against a suite of climate models
Uses a “middle of the road” emissions scenario �

https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html

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Baseline

En-ROADS

Building Confidence Through Model Inter-comparison –

an Example with Coal

Carbon price test

History

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PNNL GCAM4 SSP2 26 (2016)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Integrated Assessment Models & others

Integrated Assessment Models

Data from IEA and BP

We compare En-ROADS against historical data and results from Integrated Assessment Models for SSP2

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En-ROADS

Building Confidence Through Model Inter-comparison – �an Example with Coal

We compare En-ROADS against historical data and results from Integrated Assessment Models for SSP2

En-ROADS

Carbon price test

History

En-ROADS

Baseline

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

CI En-ROADS Ref (2019)

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

CI En-ROADS Ref (2019)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PNNL GCAM4 SSP2 26 (2016)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

CI En-ROADS SSP2 26 (2019)

Integrated Assessment Models & others

Integrated Assessment Models

Data from IEA and BP

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Business as usual

Trillion Trees Act?

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Plant new forest and restore old forests on 99% of available land

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Business as usual

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Electrify the transportation

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Business as usual

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Phase out coal

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Phase out coal, oil, natural gas; maximize the use of renewables

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Do all of the above AND electrify transport & building sectors; Improve energy efficiency

It is likely each of these would require a separate legislative or regulatory policy to achieve. . One sector at a time.

What if there were a single policy that achieves similar results?

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Carbon price – like the Energy Innovation Act

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What if you simply put a fee on carbon like the one CCL supports

Energy Innovation Act?

What about a Clean Electricity Standard?

Isn’t that a single policy that would reduce emissions quickly?

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CLEAN Future Act HR1512 – 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

What if we were to use BOTH a price on carbon AND a clean electricity standard?

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Price on carbon similar to the Energy Innovation Act AND

a 100% CES by 2035

A price on carbon similar to the Energy Innovation Act =

2.4 °C

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Phase out coal –

ENROADS is a global simulator

Saves lives, improves human health, especially among frontline communities, and

saves 100’s of billions of dollars in US each YEAR

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

Comparison of a Carbon Tax to a

Clean Energy Standard

In the United States

= 27% of Emissions

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

Comparison of a

Carbon Tax to a

Clean Electricity Standard – impacts only the electricity sector =

27% US GHG emission

In the United States

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

*Columbia Center On Global Energy Policy evaluation of the EICDA

In the United States

Note: A carbon tax phases coal out much more quickly when compared CES, reducing the area under the cure (GHG emissions) and realizing the health co-benefits of improved air quality

(SOX and mercury ↓95% and

NOX ↓75% by 2030 )*

Saves lives and improves health:

Saving 100’s billions of US healthcare dollars each year

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

*Columbia Center On Global Energy Policy evaluation of the EICDA

In the United States

It is a “yes/and”!

Clean Energy Standard-mandates 100% renewables by 2035

may be more effective in getting the last bit of natural gas used to address the intermittency issue out of the electric grid

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Carbon price emissions reductions vs. stand alone CES

Carbon price like the EICDA

Clean Electricity Standard

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Carbon price like the EICDA

Carbon price like the EICDA +

Clean Electricity Standard

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A carbon price like the EICDA reduces GHG emissions much more quickly than a CES

Carbon price like the EICDA

Clean Electricity Standard

Comparing Rising Energy Costs

Higher utility costs can be difficult for those with low incomes &

Decreasing the incentive to electrify in other sectors – (e.g. transportation & building)

Economy-wide carbon tax. .keep energy costs lower & effective “solutions multiplier”

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Economy wide carbon tax. . “solutions multiplier”

Because the cost of fossil fuels will increase relative to non-carbon forms of energy

in all sectors of the economy (unlike the CES),

the ECIDA would create the incentive to

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Creating an incentive to improve energy efficiency and

electrification in transport, buildings, & industry

Spurs innovation

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Spurs innovation

(Find news ways to remove or sequester carbon)

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Improve our agriculture techniques

Reduce other GHG emissions – Guardrail requirement after 10 years�

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Restore our forests and plant new forests; Green our living spaces

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En-ROADS Take Home Points

A price on carbon is essential because it is the single most effective lever to reduce emissions.

And it rapidly cleans up the air - Saving lives and improving health, particularly among frontline communities

“Solutions multiplier” – creating an incentive:

Electrify our transportation and building sectors, improve energy efficiency, and spur innovation

We can stay under 1.5 °C - comprehensive package of climate initiatives, there’s no time to waste!

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Next Steps

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Example Online Presentations

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What’s Your Outreach Plan?

Who are target priorities for your group?

Similar to grasstops engagement?

Outreach emails

Brief intro, invitation
Similar to scheduling presentations

What are your teams’ goals with the tool?

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Top Insights Delivered

There is no silver bullet - some actions more low leverage than acknowledged
Many actions in many sectors required - “silver buckshot”
We can do it - avoiding the worst case future is still possible
There are abundant near-term co-benefits

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https://learn.climateinteractive.org/course/mastering-en-roads-mid-2021

Mastering En-ROADS Training This course will empower you to become a leader who can spark meaningful conversations about climate change solutions. Live online sessions Workshops, games, small group practice, and Q&A sessions weekly 8 weeks Complete each module at your own pace starting July 1, 2021 Practice activities Optional exercises to improve your skills and understanding Course discussion Ask questions, share insights, and interact with others Register for free! You will learn how to... Identify and explain the key dynamics driving the climate and energy system. Facilitate impactful, hopeful En-ROADS experiences grounded in the best available science. Engage hearts and minds toward climate action. How does it work? Each week, a new module is released. Watch the videos and complete the activities on your own. Participate in weekly live sessions to see demonstrations, practice skills, and ask questions. Connect with other learners from across the world to share your experiences and form a community. The training is completely free, thanks to generous support from our funders. Is this course for me? Yes! Mastering En-ROADS is designed to support leaders from a variety of backgrounds. Beginners will find ample explanations and practice exercises to solidify their understanding. We do not assume prior knowledge of climate science or familiarity with En-ROADS. Experienced facilitators will deepen their knowledge of model dynamics and be able to hone their facilitation skills. This course includes a variety of new components, updated explanations, and a multitude of interactive activities. Course contents 01 Welcome! Free 02 Introduction to Mastering En-ROADS Free Introduction to En-ROADS and how it helps us understand climate solutions. How En-ROADS can be used to make a difference in the world and help us meet our climate goals. Overview of the course. 03 The En-ROADS Climate Workshop Free The En-ROADS Climate Workshop is an extremely rewarding and successful way to deliver climate insights to your desired community – be it your workplace, university, social network, and beyond. We will explore dynamics of the workshop, cover facilitation techniques and methodology, and you will experience an En-ROADS Workshop for yourself. 04 En-ROADS Simulator Tour Free This module covers the ins-and-outs of the sliders in En-ROADS with a particular focus on the things that people ask about most frequently. For example: “How can I test more electric cars?”, “What if we had no new coal?”, or “What about carbon capture and storage?”. We look at the advanced sliders in En-ROADS and also explore which graphs are most relevant when analyzing specific policies and solutions. 05 En-ROADS Simulator Dynamics Free During this section, we explore some of the main system dynamics principles which dictate the model’s behavior – such as price-demand feedback, the progress ratio, supply constraints, and more. We walk through these key concepts and also address tactics for explaining complex dynamics during the game and workshop. 06 Multisolving Free Essential to building support for climate action is an examination of the many other issues that climate change touches. In this module we explore the co-benefits that you can highlight with En-ROADS and how framing things as efforts toward multisolving can advance multiple priorities at once. Multisolving focuses on the development of real-world climate solutions that are rooted in environmental justice, while also offering co-benefits in health, well-being, climate resilience, and beyond. 07 The Climate Action Simulation Free 29 Jul 2021 This module covers the different elements that come together for the En-ROADS group role-playing game, the Climate Action Simulation. The Climate Action Simulation game is a unique group experience which allows participants to adopt the roles of international, multi-sector stakeholders as they forge their way towards a global climate action plan. 08 Advanced Facilitation Techniques Free 05 Aug 2021 This module offers important insights which will prepare you to be an effective En-ROADS facilitator. We will cover need-to-know facilitation tips, teach you how to answer difficult participant questions, and more. This will be an invaluable resource for you to successfully lead participants in your events and inspire climate action. 09 Confidence-Building, Testing, and Under the Hood with En-ROADS Free 12 Aug 2021 This section walks through the model comparisons and the extensive testing that the Climate Interactive team has conducted in order to build confidence in the En-ROADS simulator. 10 Next Steps Free 12 Aug 2021

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Time For Questions

Click Participants & Raise Hand Or *9 If On The Phone

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community.citizensclimate.org/topics#recent-trainings

Saving Your Chat Log
Finding Recordings After Tonight
Share online, with social media, and with your chapter, family and friends!

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Thank You!

Want to find out more? visit http://en-roads.org and sign-up to learn of news about the simulation and workshop.

Questions? Email info@climateinteractive.org

Share your experiences: cclusa.org/forums

CCL Blog: Modeling carbon fees with the Energy Policy Simulator

www.citizensclimatelobby.org