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Welcome To CCL Training!

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    • Post Q&A in Chat. Slides: cclusa.org/enroads-update

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En-ROADS Update & Hosting Climate Simulations

July 22, 2021

Presentation Slides: cclusa.org/enroads-update

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About Our Speaker

Lisa DelBuono, MD �Retired Physician�CCL MI Liaison Coordinator�Health Action Team Co-Leader

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Three Learning Goals

Provide an overview of what a presentation using En-ROADS might look like for your target audience

Walkthrough the considerations and process for how a CCL group or presenter might use the tool in a public event.

Understand the background and details of Climate Interactive’s research to create En-ROADS

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Climate Interactive & �En-ROADS Background

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“Research shows that showing people research doesn’t work.”

-Professor John Sterman

“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don’t bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”

-Buckminster Fuller

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Recent Progress With Lawmakers

  • Senate Democrats: 38 members of the US Senate; 20 members of the US Senate staff
  • House Democrats: 20 staff members representing various individual members of Congress as well as climate and energy committees
  • House Republicans: 40 staff members representing various individuals members of Congress as well as climate and energy committees
  • Governors: former Gov. Gina Raimondo (RI)

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Played Around the World

  • 85 countries
  • 551 facilitators
  • 49,447 participants

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External Reviewers of En-ROADS

  • Dr. John Weyant (chair) - Stanford
  • Dr. Valentina Bosetti - Bocconi, Italy
  • Dr. Jae Edmonds - Pacific Northwest National Labs
  • Dr. Nici Zimmermann - University College London - UK
  • Dr. Jiang Kejun - ERI China
  • Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic - IIASA - Austria

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Keep In Mind...

  • En-ROADS is a global model, not specific to U.S. climate policy alone.
  • Modeling reliability is greatest in first 10-15 years out, less so thereafter

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How To Use The Simulator

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Time For Questions

Click the Microphone Icon Or *6 If On The Phone

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In Person Presentations

  • With any size group
  • Ideally one process facilitator, one running simulator
  • Lead the group through a set of questions
  • You are their guide and support (their thinking partner), not a presenter or lecturer

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Questions in the Workshop

  1. What are the actions to take on climate that are your preferred solutions?
  2. What would the impact be of a policy like the Energy Innovation Act?
  3. What else is required to deliver on climate goals?

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Example Online Presentations

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Urgency of Mitigating Climate Change

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that
  • We need reduce emissions by about 45-50% by the end of the decade
  • If we wish to keep average global temperature increase ≤ 1.5 °C

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MIT Climate Interactive En-ROADS –

Global Climate Action Simulator

  • Systems Dynamic Model
  • Calibrated and tested against a suite of climate models
  • Uses a “middle of the road” emissions scenario �

https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html

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Baseline

En-ROADS

Building Confidence Through Model Inter-comparison –

an Example with Coal

Carbon price test

History

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PNNL GCAM4 SSP2 26 (2016)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Integrated Assessment Models & others

Integrated Assessment Models

Data from IEA and BP

We compare En-ROADS against historical data and results from Integrated Assessment Models for SSP2

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En-ROADS

Building Confidence Through Model Inter-comparison – �an Example with Coal

We compare En-ROADS against historical data and results from Integrated Assessment Models for SSP2

En-ROADS

Carbon price test

History

En-ROADS

En-ROADS

Baseline

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

CI En-ROADS Ref (2019)

BP (2018)

IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

Shell Mountain (2013)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

CI En-ROADS Ref (2019)

PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)

PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)

IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

PNNL GCAM4 SSP2 26 (2016)

EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)

CI En-ROADS SSP2 26 (2019)

Integrated Assessment Models & others

Integrated Assessment Models

Data from IEA and BP

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Business as usual

Trillion Trees Act?

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Plant new forest and restore old forests on 99% of available land

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Business as usual

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Electrify the transportation

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Business as usual

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Phase out coal

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Phase out coal, oil, natural gas; maximize the use of renewables

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Do all of the above AND electrify transport & building sectors; Improve energy efficiency

It is likely each of these would require a separate legislative or regulatory policy to achieve. . One sector at a time.

What if there were a single policy that achieves similar results?

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Carbon price – like the Energy Innovation Act

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What if you simply put a fee on carbon like the one CCL supports

Energy Innovation Act?

What about a Clean Electricity Standard?

Isn’t that a single policy that would reduce emissions quickly?

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CLEAN Future Act HR1512 – 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

What if we were to use BOTH a price on carbon AND a clean electricity standard?

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Price on carbon similar to the Energy Innovation Act AND

a 100% CES by 2035

A price on carbon similar to the Energy Innovation Act =

2.4 °C

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Phase out coal –

ENROADS is a global simulator

Saves lives, improves human health, especially among frontline communities, and

saves 100’s of billions of dollars in US each YEAR

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

Comparison of a Carbon Tax to a

Clean Energy Standard

In the United States

= 27% of Emissions

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

Comparison of a

Carbon Tax to a

Clean Electricity Standard – impacts only the electricity sector =

27% US GHG emission

In the United States

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

In the United States

Note: A carbon tax phases coal out much more quickly when compared CES, reducing the area under the cure (GHG emissions) and realizing the health co-benefits of improved air quality

(SOX and mercury ↓95% and

NOX ↓75% by 2030 )*

Saves lives and improves health:

Saving 100’s billions of US healthcare dollars each year

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@EnergyInnovLLC

Energy Policy Simulator

In the United States

It is a “yes/and”!

Clean Energy Standard-mandates 100% renewables by 2035

may be more effective in getting the last bit of natural gas used to address the intermittency issue out of the electric grid

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Carbon price emissions reductions vs. stand alone CES

Carbon price like the EICDA

Clean Electricity Standard

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Carbon price like the EICDA

Carbon price like the EICDA +

Clean Electricity Standard

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A carbon price like the EICDA reduces GHG emissions much more quickly than a CES

Carbon price like the EICDA

Clean Electricity Standard

Comparing Rising Energy Costs

Higher utility costs can be difficult for those with low incomes &

Decreasing the incentive to electrify in other sectors – (e.g. transportation & building)

Economy-wide carbon tax. .keep energy costs lower & effective “solutions multiplier”

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Economy wide carbon tax. . “solutions multiplier”

Because the cost of fossil fuels will increase relative to non-carbon forms of energy

in all sectors of the economy (unlike the CES),

the ECIDA would create the incentive to

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Creating an incentive to improve energy efficiency and

electrification in transport, buildings, & industry

Spurs innovation

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Spurs innovation

(Find news ways to remove or sequester carbon)

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Improve our agriculture techniques

Reduce other GHG emissions – Guardrail requirement after 10 years�

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Restore our forests and plant new forests; Green our living spaces

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En-ROADS Take Home Points

A price on carbon is essential because it is the single most effective lever to reduce emissions.

And it rapidly cleans up the air - Saving lives and improving health, particularly among frontline communities

“Solutions multiplier” – creating an incentive:

Electrify our transportation and building sectors, improve energy efficiency, and spur innovation

We can stay under 1.5 °C - comprehensive package of climate initiatives, there’s no time to waste!

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Next Steps

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Example Online Presentations

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What’s Your Outreach Plan?

  • Who are target priorities for your group?
    • Similar to grasstops engagement?
  • Outreach emails
    • Brief intro, invitation
    • Similar to scheduling presentations
  • What are your teams’ goals with the tool?

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Top Insights Delivered

  • There is no silver bullet - some actions more low leverage than acknowledged
  • Many actions in many sectors required - “silver buckshot”
  • We can do it - avoiding the worst case future is still possible
  • There are abundant near-term co-benefits

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Time For Questions

Click Participants & Raise Hand Or *9 If On The Phone

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community.citizensclimate.org/topics#recent-trainings

  1. Saving Your Chat Log
  2. Finding Recordings After Tonight
  3. Share online, with social media, and with your chapter, family and friends!

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Thank You!

Want to find out more? visit http://en-roads.org and sign-up to learn of news about the simulation and workshop.

Questions? Email info@climateinteractive.org

Share your experiences: cclusa.org/forums

CCL Blog: Modeling carbon fees with the Energy Policy Simulator

www.citizensclimatelobby.org