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En-ROADS Update & Hosting Climate Simulations
July 22, 2021
Presentation Slides: cclusa.org/enroads-update
About Our Speaker
Lisa DelBuono, MD �Retired Physician�CCL MI Liaison Coordinator�Health Action Team Co-Leader
Three Learning Goals
Provide an overview of what a presentation using En-ROADS might look like for your target audience
Walkthrough the considerations and process for how a CCL group or presenter might use the tool in a public event.
Understand the background and details of Climate Interactive’s research to create En-ROADS
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Climate Interactive & �En-ROADS Background
“Research shows that showing people research doesn’t work.”
-Professor John Sterman
…
“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don’t bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”
-Buckminster Fuller
“
Recent Progress With Lawmakers
Played Around the World
External Reviewers of En-ROADS
Keep In Mind...
How To Use The Simulator
Time For Questions
Click the Microphone Icon Or *6 If On The Phone
In Person Presentations
Questions in the Workshop
Example Online Presentations
Urgency of Mitigating Climate Change
MIT Climate Interactive En-ROADS –
Global Climate Action Simulator
https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html
Baseline
En-ROADS
Building Confidence Through Model Inter-comparison –
an Example with Coal
Carbon price test
History
BP (2018)
IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)
BP (2018)
IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)
PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
Shell Mountain (2013)
NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)
IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
Shell Mountain (2013)
EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)
PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
PNNL GCAM4 SSP2 26 (2016)
EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
Integrated Assessment Models & others
Integrated Assessment Models
Data from IEA and BP
We compare En-ROADS against historical data and results from Integrated Assessment Models for SSP2
En-ROADS
Building Confidence Through Model Inter-comparison – �an Example with Coal
We compare En-ROADS against historical data and results from Integrated Assessment Models for SSP2
En-ROADS
Carbon price test
History
En-ROADS
En-ROADS
Baseline
BP (2018)
IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)
CI En-ROADS Ref (2019)
BP (2018)
IEA WEO Current Policy (2018)
PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
Shell Mountain (2013)
NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)
IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
Shell Mountain (2013)
EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
CI En-ROADS Ref (2019)
PBL IMAGE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
NIES AIM/CGE SSPE Baseline (2016)
PIK REMIND-MAGPIE SSP2 Baseline (2016)
IIASA MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
PNNL GCAM4 SSP2 26 (2016)
EIEE WITCH-GLOBIOM SSP2 Baseline (2016)
CI En-ROADS SSP2 26 (2019)
Integrated Assessment Models & others
Integrated Assessment Models
Data from IEA and BP
Business as usual
Trillion Trees Act?
Plant new forest and restore old forests on 99% of available land
Business as usual
Electrify the transportation
Business as usual
Phase out coal
Phase out coal, oil, natural gas; maximize the use of renewables
Do all of the above AND electrify transport & building sectors; Improve energy efficiency
It is likely each of these would require a separate legislative or regulatory policy to achieve. . One sector at a time.
What if there were a single policy that achieves similar results?
Carbon price – like the Energy Innovation Act
What if you simply put a fee on carbon like the one CCL supports
Energy Innovation Act?
What about a Clean Electricity Standard?
Isn’t that a single policy that would reduce emissions quickly?
CLEAN Future Act HR1512 – 100% Clean Electricity by 2035
What if we were to use BOTH a price on carbon AND a clean electricity standard?
Price on carbon similar to the Energy Innovation Act AND
a 100% CES by 2035
A price on carbon similar to the Energy Innovation Act =
2.4 °C
Phase out coal –
ENROADS is a global simulator
Saves lives, improves human health, especially among frontline communities, and
saves 100’s of billions of dollars in US each YEAR
Energy Policy Simulator
Comparison of a Carbon Tax to a
Clean Energy Standard
In the United States
= 27% of Emissions
Energy Policy Simulator
Comparison of a
Carbon Tax to a
Clean Electricity Standard – impacts only the electricity sector =
27% US GHG emission
In the United States
Energy Policy Simulator
In the United States
Note: A carbon tax phases coal out much more quickly when compared CES, reducing the area under the cure (GHG emissions) and realizing the health co-benefits of improved air quality
(SOX and mercury ↓95% and
NOX ↓75% by 2030 )*
Saves lives and improves health:
Saving 100’s billions of US healthcare dollars each year
Energy Policy Simulator
In the United States
It is a “yes/and”!
Clean Energy Standard-mandates 100% renewables by 2035
may be more effective in getting the last bit of natural gas used to address the intermittency issue out of the electric grid
Carbon price emissions reductions vs. stand alone CES
Carbon price like the EICDA
Clean Electricity Standard
Carbon price like the EICDA
Carbon price like the EICDA +
Clean Electricity Standard
A carbon price like the EICDA reduces GHG emissions much more quickly than a CES
Carbon price like the EICDA
Clean Electricity Standard
Comparing Rising Energy Costs
Higher utility costs can be difficult for those with low incomes &
Decreasing the incentive to electrify in other sectors – (e.g. transportation & building)
Economy-wide carbon tax. .keep energy costs lower & effective “solutions multiplier”
Economy wide carbon tax. . “solutions multiplier”
Because the cost of fossil fuels will increase relative to non-carbon forms of energy
in all sectors of the economy (unlike the CES),
the ECIDA would create the incentive to
Creating an incentive to improve energy efficiency and
electrification in transport, buildings, & industry
Spurs innovation
Spurs innovation
(Find news ways to remove or sequester carbon)
Improve our agriculture techniques
Reduce other GHG emissions – Guardrail requirement after 10 years�
Restore our forests and plant new forests; Green our living spaces
En-ROADS Take Home Points
A price on carbon is essential because it is the single most effective lever to reduce emissions.
And it rapidly cleans up the air - Saving lives and improving health, particularly among frontline communities
“Solutions multiplier” – creating an incentive:
Electrify our transportation and building sectors, improve energy efficiency, and spur innovation
We can stay under 1.5 °C - comprehensive package of climate initiatives, there’s no time to waste!
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Next Steps
Example Online Presentations
What’s Your Outreach Plan?
Top Insights Delivered
Time For Questions
Click Participants & Raise Hand Or *9 If On The Phone
community.citizensclimate.org/topics#recent-trainings
Thank You!
Want to find out more? visit http://en-roads.org and sign-up to learn of news about the simulation and workshop.
Questions? Email info@climateinteractive.org
Share your experiences: cclusa.org/forums
CCL Blog: Modeling carbon fees with the Energy Policy Simulator
www.citizensclimatelobby.org