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DOCUMENTING LEARNING THROUGH AN ADAPTIVE APPROACH

Presented by: Stephen Grey & Andy Carl

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What is adaptive programming?

“A set of methods to work on complex problems whose nature and solutions cannot be known in advance, especially in changing and unpredictable environments, which involves using evidence in a timely way to improve your activities so that they are more effective”

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And what it’s not..

  • A flexible blueprint
  • (only) adaptive to context changes, not when something isn’t working

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What’s the difference? Proactive, learning-orientated

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Traditional Management vs. Adaptive Management

Results-Based Budgeting, Project and Program Management, Logframes, M&E for accountability

Methods:

Problem driven iterative development, systemic action research, strategy testing, outcome harvesting, real time M&E

Accountability, compliance, avoiding

failure, standardisation, RESULTS

Priorities:

Time-sensitive learning, effectiveness, responsible experimentation, RESULTS

“The blueprint approach” - change is

linear, context is static, we know what we need to do/measure, our activities will produce the outcomes we desire

Assumptions:

“The learn by doing approach” -

change is non-linear, context is dynamic, we have

partial information, we have hypotheses, we will

need to change course

Top-down/centralised management, risk aversion, replicability, favor institutional priorities, discomfort with uncertainty

Culture and organisation:

De-centralised decision making, favour contextual priorities, horses for courses, risk tolerance, comfort with uncertainty

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�Adaptive programming is…

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�What is it not? Why does it matter?

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A commitment to listen (and respond) to the context�(and methods that devolve decision-making)

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The courage to seek better answers�(with systems for continuous learning and improvement)

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Flexible management approaches�(among interdependent systems)

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A desire to achieve better results�(with systems that promote honesty about our journey)

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Adaptive programming should not be..

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A programme without goals, or with continuously shifting goalposts

A flexible way of doing business as usual (the flexible blueprint approach..)

An additional management burden that does not increase effectiveness

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Example methodology: Systemic Action Research

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Community desire for IDP return

Escalating conflict, IDP return not possible, pivot to harm reduction (MRE)

MRE not possible in guerilla areas (no international access), engage guerillas for consent and iNGOs for technical assistance

Blended local/ international approach achieve first ever MRE

Guerillas observe MRE, fund 8x extension of MRE programming

ADAPTIVE PROGRAMMING FOR MRE

PROGRAMMING JOURNEY

8,000 IDPs receive MRE @ < $5/person

Dimensions of adaptation

(what we do, how, with who, how we learn)

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A case study from Colombia

  • International NGO “Christian Aid Ireland” (CAI)
  • Working with nine local Colombian partners on gender, peacebuilding, and fiscal justice issues

“Christian Aid Colombia works with local partners who are among the most important organisations in the social movement – they have a permanent presence in key regions and strong links with local communities. Following the signing of a peace agreement in 2016 between the Colombian Government of President Juan Manuel Santos and the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), we are increasingly moving our focus from tackling violence to building peace.

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  • Since 2017 CAI and its partners use an adaptive methodology called “strategy testing” to adapt to a rapidly changing social and political context in Colombia

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Strategy testing methodology in Colombia

Every six months CAI and its partners meet to:

  • Assess how the context has changed
  • Determine the impacts that their strategies/activities have had, their contribution to those impacts, and the significance of those impacts
  • Assess if their assumptions were correct
  • Assess their evidence base (how do we know if we are succeeding)
  • Adapt their strategies and evidence collection accordingly
  • Consult and validate new strategies with a wider audience (key stakeholders and beneficiaries)

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BECOMING AN ADAPTIVE ORGANISATION

Outcomes

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Behavioural tendencies

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Business processes

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Culture

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BECOMING AN ADAPTIVE ORGANISATION

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Tensions: predictability vs results

  • We must be accountable to those who we serve, and those who pay…
  • It’s harder to fund activities and indicators that aren’t clear at at the beginning, but…
  • There’s growing evidence that pre-made plans are very ineffective in complex, changing environments, and…
  • We now have better methods (‘complexity MEL”) of measuring impact even when we change our strategy within the budget cycle
  • So, how adaptive do we want to be?
  • Traditional blueprint approach --> participatory strategy formation --> including an adaptive pilot activity or adaptive awareness raising in the next year --> a fully adaptive program?

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WHAT DOES BEING ADAPTIVE MEAN FOR MONITORING, EVALUATION & LEARNING?

  • Higher investment required
  • Prioritising real-time learning as a critical input to adaptation
  • A transition from output measures to systems measures
  • Different methods: systems evaluation, outcome harvesting, strategy testing

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Direct project outcomes

Ripple effects

Spread

System change

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WHAT AND HOW WE MEASURE IMPACT

    • Activities: your programs and projects (the things you do)
    • Outcomes: desired results from our work and/or demonstrable progress toward them (e.g. building trust)
    • Key dynamics: of our system, leverage hypotheses (E.g. strengthening a positive loop, weakening a negative loop, developing a new loop, shortening a time delay.)
    • Ripple effects: outcomes that create second and third order changes.
    • Spread: outcomes we got in one community/stakeholder/area are spreading, without our intervention, to other communities/stakeholders/areas.
    • System change: sustainable, positive improvements in the health of the system (e.g. lower poverty, less violence, etc).

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INTERVENTION

LOGIC

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE PROGRAM MANAGEMENT CYCLE?

  • Not just new programmatic practices
    • A culture of experimentation
    • Decentralised leadership
    • Using learning in real time
    • Building trust with donors and remaining accountable for changes

Planning: systems analysis

Adaptive management

Monitoring, evaluation, & Learning

Analysis: Systems mapping

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RESOURCES

Adapt Peacebuilding - www.adaptpeacebuilding.org/blog/ www.adaptåeacebuilding.org/podcast/ - please subscribe!

The systems thinker - https://thesystemsthinker.com/ - articles, guides, and case studies of systems thinking

USAID Collaborate.Learn.Adapt - https://usaidlearninglab.org/cla-toolkit - USAID’s guides and tools for adaptive management

Oxfam, From Poverty to Power - https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/ - blog on adaptive management and frontier issues in development

The Advanced Consortium for Conflict, Complexity, and Collaboration (AC4) - http://ac4.ei.columbia.edu/

Acumen+ https://plusacumen.novoed.com/#!/courses/systems-practice-2018-1/flyer - a free online course on systems practice

Doing Development Differently - http://doingdevelopmentdifferently.com/the-ddd-manifesto/ - a multi-organisational consortium

Systems mindsets videos - https://vimeo.com/212281432 - short explainer from the Omidyar Group about systems concepts

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Tim Harfod, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10158633-adapt

Donella Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer - https://wtf.tw/ref/meadows.pdf

De Coning, Complexity Thinking for Peacebuilding Practice and Evaluation. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-60111-7

Wilson-Grau, R. & Britt, H. (2013) Outcome Harvesting (revised). Cairo: Ford Foundation. http://www.outcomemapping.ca/resource/resource.php?id=374

Burns and Worsley, Navigating Complexity in International Development: Facilitating Sustainable Change at Scale - https://www.amazon.com/Navigating-Complexity-International-Development-Facilitating-ebook/dp/B016Q8GK44

Stroh, Systems Thinking for Social Change - https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/systems-thinking-for-social-change/