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MOBILIZING YOUNG AND BIPOC VOTERS

Menlo College

Dr. Melissa R. Michelson

San Mateo County League of Women Voters, June 22, 2024

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Source: http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

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2020 voter turnout

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Turnout Rate

BY RACE

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White, non-Hispanic

71%

Black

63%

Asian/Pacific Islander

59%

Native American/Alaska Native

52%

Hispanic/Latino

54%

BY AGE GROUP

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18-34

57%

35-64

69%

65+

74%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Voter Supplement

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Why do people participate in elections?

  • Because they can (resources)
  • Because they want to (engagement)
  • Because someone asks them to (recruitment)

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Barriers

  • Structural barriers
  • Cognitive barriers

Source: https://sites.bu.edu/cmcs/2018/11/26/fake-news-social-media-and-politics/

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Trusted Messengers

  • Individuals are more likely to heed election information that comes from a trusted agent

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Strangers vs. Friends

  • St. Lucy Catholic Church

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  • South Los Angeles
    • 5.2%-pt. boost vs. 8.5 %-pt. boost

García Bedolla and Michelson, Mobilizing Inclusion (2012)

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CONTROL

FELLOW CONGREGANTS

FRIENDS IN CONGREGATION

Feb

39.4

44.0

49.5

June

6.7

7.5

9.1

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Follow-up Contacts

  • One-round phone banks: 2-5 %-pts.
  • Two-round phone banks: 11-13 %-pts.

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García Bedolla and Michelson, Mobilizing Inclusion (2012)

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Sociocultural Cognition Model

  • Votes generated during a voter mobilization campaign produce future votes without additional effort
  • GOTV moves voters to adopt new identities as voters

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García Bedolla and Michelson, Mobilizing Inclusion (2012)

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The Message Matters

  • East LA & Montebello

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  • By SES & Nativity

Recycling

American

Latino

14.6%

19.5%

21.8%

(Valenzuela and Michelson, APSR Nov. 2016)

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Recycling

American

Latino

High SES

12.5

20.0

19.8

Low SES

17.7

19.0

23.9

US-born

13.0

19.3

19.0

Foreign-born

20.0

20.0

29.5

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Social pressure – the wrong way

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-cruz-under-fire-for-controversial-iowa-mailer/, Ted Cruz 2016

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Social Pressure – the better way

  • 6.1%-pts.

(Marble & Michelson 2017)

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Election Festivals

  • 100+ RCTs in 2005-2018
  • Avg. effect of 1.7%-pts.

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(Green and McClellan 2017, 2020)

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Party at the Mailbox

  • +2.5 %-pts.
    • 12.7%-pts. among low-propensity household members

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Party at the Mailbox

  • Cultivates a spirit of celebration about voting
  • Catalysts for interpersonal conversations

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Challenges of Youth

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Email & Text Messages

  • Include a link to an online registration form
  • Send from trusted sources
    • Texts from friends can increase turnout more than a door-to-door canvass or phone call from a stranger

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Relational Organizing

Source: https://ignitenational.org/blog/relational-organizing-online-101

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Listening First

  • Start with a question: “What do you care about?”

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  • “How do you make positive change around those things?”
    • They’ve been posting to social media, talking to their friends, participating in protests, signing petitions

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  • Tell them you’re listening, then redirect
    • Those are great things to do. But... 

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GOTV Best Practices

The Method Matters

IRL vs. digital

The Messenger Matters

Trusted sources

The Message Matters

Listen & connect

Quality Matters

Timing Matters

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Homework

Contact people you know

Listen

Redirect

Ask for a commitment

Make it easy

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Thank You!