Strategic Wargaming��Wargaming at the Highest Levels Of Defense Planning

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

Chief, Wargaming

Requirements Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

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Cleared for Unlimited Release: AFRL 07-0037

July 2007

My Bio

• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate, SAAS
• Col USAFR (ret.) - USAFR Assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/speaker
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book
• Many articles, chapters, hundreds of talks

We Are a Nation At War

Our actions influence the number of casualties we will suffer in this war – and future wars

“This is not (exactly) the enemy we wargamed against.”

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Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC

“This is not (exactly) the enemy we wargamed against.”

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Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC

"You go to war with the Army you have... not the Army you might want or wish to have…

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Secretary Of Defense Rumsfeld

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Observe

Orient

Decide

Wargame

Impacts

• Better Strategists
• Synthetic Experience for Virtual Veterans
• Better Strategies
• Anticipating likely effects of alternatives

OSD

Svs

JCS

Comb.Cdr

I

INITIATION

II

CONCEPT

DEVELOPMENT

III

PLAN

DEVELOPMENT

IV

PLAN

REVIEW

V

SUPPORT

PLANS

JOPES

CPG

JSCP

PDMs

BESs

PBDs

PLANNING

BUDGETING

PPBS

President’s

Budget

FYDP

DPG

CPA

CPR

JPD

JSR

Annual

Report

CPR

CPA

JV 20xx

NMS

JSCP

JPD

JSPS

JQRR

IPLs

POMs

PROGRAMMING

DP

CAP

CRS

JROC

JWCA

ACRONYM�SOUP

QDR

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Defense Planning Systems

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Pol/Mil

Even Milton Caniff was criticized for a

Steve Canyon episode that described

the Pentagon's Pol/Mol wargaming.

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Immediate - Orders

Mid term - JSCP

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Immediate - Orders

Mid term - JSCP

Theater Wargaming

Theater Strategy, Campaign Wargaming

Plan

Development

Plan

Review

Supporting

Plans

OPORD

​

Execution

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Execution

Planning

Course of

Action

Selection

Course of

Action

Development

Crisis

Assessment

Situation

Development

Event

OPLAN

CONPLAN

FUNCPLAN

No Plan

Deliberate Planning

Crisis Action Planning

Initiation

Concept

Development

Campaign Plan

OPORDs

Develop

Expand

Modify

IPL

Activities, Functions, Products

Products

Deployment

Order

Execute

Order

Alert

Order

Planning

Order

Warning

Order

Approved

Mission

Approved

Plan

Approved

Concept

CONPLAN

OPLAN

OPORD

IPR

IPR

IPR

{

IPR

BASE PLAN

Contingency

Crisis

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Immediate - Orders

Mid term - JSCP

Theater Wargaming

Assessment

Integrated Priority List (IPL)

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Budget Guidance

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Budget Guidance

Title 10

Air Force Title 10 Wargaming

AF Corporate

Structure

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POM

Lessons Learned to Further Explore

RCCs

POM

2 X POM

4 X POM

Lessons Learned to Further Explore

Service & RCCs

Service Responsibility

Even Year

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AF/A5X

Odd Year

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AF/A8X

Execution

Actionable

Insights

Lessons Learned from Joint, Service, Other Events

FG 07 Campaign Plan

January 07

October

February 08

Final Report

Preliminary

Report

March

June

Force Structure DATA call

May

April

Final Planning

Conference

August

February

July

September

December

AF

Tech Exp

Game

CSAF

Outbrief

Air Force Discovery Game

November

CSAF

Approve

December 2006

Formal

Invites

GLOMO

Exercise

Planning

Workshop

When: 14 – 19 October 2007

Where: AFWI, Maxwell AFB

Game Setting: 2030

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RED / Blue Mid Term Planning

Conference

Red / Blue Workshop

Future Game 2007

Schriever IV Game

COA Workshop

Our Target: Accurate Forecasts

Discovery Game and AFTEG Compliment Each Other

Red Learns From Blue

Blue Learns From Red

Uniquely Blue TTP, ROE, and CONOPS

Uniquely Red TTP, ROE, and CONOPS

Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Budget Guidance

Title 10

Budget

Assessment

Observations

• Though complex, current system integrates planning across needed scope and time
• Systems only help when used.
• Future adversaries unlikely to be as slow & bureaucratic a the Soviet Union, hence:
• Combatant Commander’s Contingency Planning step in right direction
• Comparable acceleration of service planning imperative – wargaming can help

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