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NWO READINESS�Project Presentation�www.ship-readiness.nl��December 1^st, 2021��This publication is part of the project READINESS with project number �TWM.BL.019.002 of the research programme �”Topsector Water & Maritime: the Blue route” �which is partly financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO).�

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Marine industry challenges

Two main challenges for marine vessels

Reducing environmental impact
Increasing autonomy

Goal: Break through the paralysis

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Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

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Project READINESS

Started Nov 2020

This publication is part of the project READINESS (with project number TWM.BL.019.002 of the research programme Blue Route which is (partly) financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO).

Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

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Project READINESS

Project READINESS (2020) investigates how to handle uncertain:

automation modifications [WP1],
energy modifications [WP2],
routing of pipes and cables on-board vessels [WP3]

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Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

Operation

“Automation Transition”

Systems

“Energy Transition”

Components

“System Interconnections”

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Operation

“Automation Transition”

Systems

“Energy Transition”

Components

“System Interconnections”

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Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

Work Package 1�Nikos Kougiatsos

n.kougiatsos@tudelft.nl

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Automation Transition (1/2)

Vessels design does not take into account future technological and regulatory developments
Suboptimal automation systems at end of construction
Equipment modifications => Controller modifications

Currently, zero guarantees for the compatibility of the new controllers and the seamless operation of the whole system!

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Automation Transition (2/2)

The future vision includes autonomous shipping
Impact to vessels:

Cyberdevices (e.g. IoT sensors)
Need for more sophisticated monitoring, control and coordination algorithms
Need for reliable and secure communication

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

Figure 1. “Connected Smart Ship” ^{(H. H. Industries,2015)}

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Motivation

Multi-level control architecture

Single centralised agent at a higher layer
Extra cost during automation modifications
Centralised architecture => little flexibility for adapting to uncertain automation modifications!

Single sensor values for diagnosis

No distinction between sensor faults and system malfunctions (e.g. Viking Sky (2019))

Figure 2. Ship propulsion multi-level control^{(READINESS, 2020)}

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Research Question

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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[Q] How can we design scalable and modular autonomous control systems to:

handle the uncertain future modifications in ship automation and

properly compensate for fault effects without human intervention?

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Scalability

Figure 3. I-SEA Research Framework

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E-mbedded scalability to ship automation systems

Apply multi-level model-based non-centralised control techniques to facilitate uncertain future equipment additions or replacements.

A-dded modularity to ship automation systems

Apply Plug-and-Play control methods to guarantee stability after the modifications and seamlessly integrate new components on-board sea vessels

S-mart Integration of novel sensor technologies

Increase the condition and operational awareness of the vessel by fusing information from multiple novel (i.e. IoT) and possibly heterogeneous sensors.

I-ncreased Safety and Security

Properly diagnose sensor faults, system malfunctions and cyberattacks and compensate for their effects without human intervention

Hierarchical control architecture

Non-centralised controllers

Partitioning
Interconnections
Communication

Model-based approach

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Modularity

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S-mart Integration of novel sensor technologies

Increase the condition and operational awareness of the vessel by fusing information from multiple novel (i.e. IoT) and possibly heterogeneous sensors.

I-ncreased Safety and Security

Properly diagnose sensor faults, system malfunctions and cyberattacks and compensate for their effects without human intervention

A-dded modularity to ship automation systems

Apply Plug-and-Play control methods to guarantee stability after the modifications and seamlessly integrate new components on-board sea vessels

E-mbedded scalability to ship automation systems

Apply multi-level model-based non-centralised control techniques to facilitate uncertain future equipment additions or replacements.

Stability after automation modifications

Plug-and-Play control design

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

Figure 3. I-SEA Research Framework

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Multisensory scheme

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A-dded modularity to ship automation systems

Apply Plug-and-Play control methods to guarantee stability after the modifications and seamlessly integrate new components on-board sea vessels

S-mart Integration of novel sensor technologies

Increase the condition and operational awareness of the vessel by fusing information from multiple novel (i.e. IoT) and possibly heterogeneous sensors.

E-mbedded scalability to ship automation systems

Apply multi-level model-based non-centralised control techniques to facilitate uncertain future equipment additions or replacements.

I-ncreased Safety and Security

Properly diagnose sensor faults, system malfunctions and cyberattacks and compensate for their effects without human intervention

Novel sensors (e.g. IoT)

Heterogeneous sensors

Multi-sensory control loops

Analytical vs Physical redudancy

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

Figure 3. I-SEA Research Framework

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Safety & Security

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A-dded modularity to ship automation systems

Apply Plug-and-Play control methods to guarantee stability after the modifications and seamlessly integrate new components on-board sea vessels

S-mart Integration of novel sensor technologies

Increase the condition and operational awareness of the vessel by fusing information from multiple novel (i.e. IoT) and possibly heterogeneous sensors.

I-ncreased Safety and Security

Properly diagnose sensor faults, system malfunctions and cyberattacks and compensate for their effects without human intervention

E-mbedded scalability to ship automation systems

Apply multi-level model-based non-centralised control techniques to facilitate uncertain future equipment additions or replacements.

Vulnerabilities

Sensor faults
Process faults
Cyberattacks

Multiple faults

Model-based diagnosis

techniques

Active fault tolerant control

Cybersecurity

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

Figure 3. I-SEA Research Framework

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I-SEA Framework

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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A-dded modularity to ship automation systems

Apply Plug-and-Play control methods to guarantee stability after the modifications and seamlessly integrate new components on-board sea vessels

S-mart Integration of novel sensor technologies

Increase the condition and operational awareness of the vessel by fusing information from multiple novel (i.e. IoT) and possibly heterogeneous sensors.

I-ncreased Safety and Security

Properly diagnose sensor faults, system malfunctions and cyberattacks and compensate for their effects without human intervention

E-mbedded scalability to ship automation systems

Apply multi-level model-based non-centralised control techniques to facilitate uncertain future equipment additions or replacements.

Figure 4. I-SEA Research Framework

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WP1 Direction

Work Package 1

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Figure 5. Ship propulsion multi-level control [WP1 Approach]^{(READINESS, 2020)}

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Operation

“Automation Transition”

Systems

“Energy Transition”

Components

“System Interconnections”

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Work Package 2�Jesper Zwaginga

Jesper.Zwaginga@tudelft.nl

Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

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Maritime energy Transition (1/3)

Regulatory uncertainty: what requirements/stimulation?

Emission regulations affect development & strategy

Work Package 2

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Pathway to zero emissions:

0?

CO2 Reduction

%

Time

2030

2050

50%

EU 2019

IMO 2018

EU 2014

Certain:

Need to reduce emissions!

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Maritime energy Transition (2/3)

Technological uncertainty:

Multiple option categories (necessary)^{(e.g Mallouppas, 2021; Bouman, 2016)}
Research ongoing: performance/requirements uncertain

Work Package 2

Curriculum Vitae

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Energy system

Operational

Energy saving

Exhaust treatment

Power assistance

Ship design

(Balcombe, 2019)

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There are actually multiple options, which can be bundled into different categories with different locations, working and performance.
There are options with lower reduction potential, like optimizing the ship design, energy saving and power assistance.
Or options with higher reduction potential, like exhaust treatment, operational measures or energy systems.
It is expected that a combination of options is needed to achieve reduction targets.
Besides this, most of the options with high reduction potential are still in development. Which makes the performance and requirements of implementation of options uncertain.
An example of this uncertainty for several options of energy carriers is shown in the figure on the bottom left. Energy carriers on the x-axis with potential carbon savings on the y axis as established by different authors shown in colour. It is clear there is still a lot of disagreement and only time will reduce this uncertainty.
Bridge: Furthermore, for each of the options, what is the operational effect?

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Maritime energy Transition (3/3)

Work Package 2

Curriculum Vitae

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Operational uncertainty:

Initial ship design dictates 25-50 year lifetime
New reduction options affect operational capability

Different impact on architecture and capability^(McCoy,2015)
Effectivity depends on ship type^{(Korberg,2021)}

Types

Options

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Decision making problem

Stakeholders need to decide their pathway toward zero emission.

Multiple-objectives: trade-offs

Minimize emission
Minimize cost and maximize capability (profit)

Uncertain requirements & performance option
Complex relations & effects

Work Package 2

Curriculum Vitae

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Main directions of research

Work Package 2

Curriculum Vitae

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Under which circumstances can ship design changeability ensure value robustness despite a high level of uncertainty?

2 main directions:

Decision making methods: explore options under uncertainty
Changeability: value of system changeability

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Decision making methods

Work Package 2

Curriculum Vitae

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

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Mapping

Decisions

Valuation

Decision

method

Scenarios

Explore effects of scenarios
Quantify impact adaptive strategy

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There are many different decision making methods that have been developed to support specific decision making problems but no clear method exists yet for the maritime energy transition
In general decision making methods are comparable in setup.
Each has a set of alternative decisions and a set of scenarios that they would like to research.
The relationships are mapped and the performance of a decision alternative in a scenario is evaluated.
We can research the performance of different emission reduction strategies, while using a range of potential emission reduction as scenarios.
For example, a pareto front can be used to visualize the performance regarding operational and capital expenses of 5 different strategies in a single scenario.
The orange front shows the trade-off that can be made by stakeholders, lets say strategy 3 is preferred.
When a second scenario is checked, with less favourable carbon savings, the effects of uncertainty and necessary measures to comply might result in a pareto front shift where strategy 2 might be preferred.
To reduce vulnerability to such a shift, it might be necessary to prepare an adaptive strategy from 3 to 2.
Bridge: Besides analysing strategy under uncertainty, I also work on including the ship design constraints to understand the value of an adaptive strategy.

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Changeability for system modifications

Work Package 2

Curriculum Vitae

Problem statement

Research Themes

Research Framework

Feasible adaptive strategy: need design measures

Changeability: change form, function or operation ^{(Rehn, 2018)}
Level quantified with time & cost

cost

time

change

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Value enabling variable

Ship

design

Change enabling variable

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^{Adapted from} ^{(Rehn, 2020)}

Changeability to support maritime energy transition?

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To enable cost efficient system modifications and deal with the constraints that the design presents, changeable design measures might need to be included in the vessel.
The definition of changeability is to change form, function or operation
And we can quantify its level using time and cost.
When we look at a ship design as a combination of system design variables, and we need to add a new emission reduction option during the lifetime such as a liquid hydrogen tank as shown in the picture.
Current practice is to primarily focus on value enabling variables. While this reduces initial cost, it can result in large loss in cost and time to allow addition of the tank.
An alternative is to take change enabling variables into account, this has a higher initial cost but would make a change more smooth.
These are two extremes and the reality will be somewhere in between.
But the question I aim to answer becomes:
Can changeability prepare the maritime transition towards zero emissions?
Bridge: I am Jesper and I research how to prepare the maritime industry for the energy transition. I give the floor to the next work package; Mark.

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Operation

“Automation Transition”

Systems

“Energy Transition”

Components

“System Interconnections”

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Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

Work Package 3�Mark Blokland

mark@cwi.nl

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Interconnections for uncertain pathways

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Two uncertain pathways:

Automation transition:

Energy transition:

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Interconnections for uncertain pathways

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Two uncertain pathways:

Automation transition:

Energy transition:

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Energy Transition (1/3)

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Pipe Routing

Outlining routes for pipes in a confined space to connect multiple points such that several constraints are met and objectives are optimized.

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Energy Transition (1/3)

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Pipe Routing

Outlining routes for pipes in a confined space to connect multiple points such that several constraints are met and objectives are optimized.

From: CIRP Annals - Manufacturing Technology 59(1):167-170 – December (2002) [Y.H. Yin, 2010]

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Energy Transition (1/3)

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Pipe Routing

Outlining routes for pipes in a confined space to connect multiple points such that several constraints are met and objectives are optimized.

From: CIRP Annals - Manufacturing Technology 59(1):167-170 – December (2002) [Y.H. Yin, 2010]

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Energy Transition (2/3)

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Pipe Routing

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

Many types of objectives involved:

Minimize Man Hours
Minimize Material Costs
Qualitative Objectives

Many types of constraints:

Avoid Collisions
Safety Constraints

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Energy Transition (3/3)

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Pipes and the shipbuilding process

Thousands of pipes in a large ship^{(Asmara, 2013)}
Expensive > 50% total man hours in detailed ship design^{(Park, 2002)}

Energy Transition

Current ship design will impact cost of future energy transition

2020

2100

2030

2050

Lifetime

From: International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering – December (2002) [W.S. Ruy, 2002]

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Research Question

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How can we design system interconnections such that it takes replacement strategies under uncertain future transitions into account?

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Research Framework

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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How can we design system interconnections such that it takes replacement strategies under uncertain future transitions into account?

Two main directions for research:

Design methods: Automatic Piping Design
Adaptability: Adaptation of Uncertainty

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1. Automatic Piping Design

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Mathematical description of routing space and its properties
Quantifying objectives and constraints
Optimization of Piping Design

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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2. Adaptability of Uncertainty

Quantifying probability of future maritime energy transitions
Express transition costs in terms of pipe design

Number and sorts of pipes to be removed, replaced or rearranged
Accessibility for removing, replacing or rearranging pipes

Optimize model w.r.t. current design and expected transition costs

a.

b.

c.

a.

b.

c.

30%

50%

20%

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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2. Adaptability of Uncertainty

Quantifying probability of future maritime energy transitions
Express transition costs in terms of pipe design

Number and sorts of pipes to be removed, replaced or rearranged
Accessibility for removing, replacing or rearranging pipes

Optimize model w.r.t. current design and expected transition costs

a.

b.

c.

Costs

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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2. Adaptability of Uncertainty

Quantifying probability of future maritime energy transitions
Express transition costs in terms of pipe design

Number and sorts of pipes to be removed, replaced or rearranged
Accessibility for removing, replacing or rearranging pipes

Optimize model w.r.t. current design and expected transition costs

a.

0.3

b.

0.5

c.

0.2

a.

b.

c.

Costs

+

Work Package 3

Problem statement

Research Question

Research Framework

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Thank you for your attention.

For more information you can visit our website:

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Introduction

Work Package 1

Work Package 2

Work Package 3

Closing

WP1 Email: n.kougiatsos@tudelft.nl

WP2 Email: jesper.zwaginga@tudelft.nl

WP3 Email: mark@cwi.nl

www.ship-readiness.nl

This presentation is part of the project READINESS with projectnumber TWM.BL.019.002 of the research programme ”Topsector Water & Maritime: the Blue route” which is partly financed by theDutch Research Council (NWO).

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