DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING
Uzbekistan
Population Trends, Projections & Policy Implications
2025 – 2050
36.7M
Population 2024
2.1%
Annual Growth Rate
50M+
Projected by 2050
Sources: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 · World Bank · Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee
Current Demographic Profile · Uzbekistan 2024
36.7M
Total Population
+770K per year
29.2
Median Age
Young population
3.07
Fertility Rate (TFR)
Above replacement
75.1
Life Expectancy
Years at birth
52%
Urban Population
Urbanising rapidly
57%
Under 30 years
Youth demographic
Sources: UN DESA 2024 · World Bank Open Data · Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee
Historical Population Growth · 1950 – 2024
1959
~9M — Soviet-era
rapid growth begins
1991
Independence
population ~21M
2000s
Post-transition
stabilisation
2024
36.7M — fastest
growth in 20 yrs
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024
Age Structure & Population Pyramid · 2024
Expansive Pyramid
Wide base confirms ongoing high fertility — classic developing-nation structure.
Youth Bulge
~57% of population under 30; a major demographic dividend opportunity.
Ageing Begins
65+ share (~4.5%) still low but will accelerate rapidly post-2035.
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 · Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee
Fertility & Mortality Trends · 1990 – 2024
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Life Expectancy at Birth (years)
TFR Uptick
After declining through the 1990s–2000s, TFR has risen since 2015 — bucking regional trends.
Longevity Rising
Life expectancy gained 6+ years since 1990, driven by improved healthcare access.
IMR Improvement
Infant mortality fell from 37/1000 (2000) to 16/1000 (2024) — major public health progress.
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 · WHO Global Health Observatory
Urbanisation & Internal Migration
Urban–Rural Share (%) — 1990 to 2040F
Major Urban Centres (2024 est.)
Tashkent
2.9M
Samarkand
0.6M
Namangan
0.55M
Andijan
0.50M
Bukhara
0.38M
International Migration Context
Uzbekistan has a net negative migration balance (-2 to -3 per 1,000). An estimated 2.5–3M Uzbeks work abroad (primarily Russia, Kazakhstan, South Korea). Remittances reached $9.7B in 2023 — 14% of GDP — making this a vital demographic-economic nexus.
Sources: World Bank · Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee · IOM 2024
Demographic Forecasting Methodology
Core Method: Cohort-Component Model (CCM)
Projects future population by tracking each age-sex cohort forward with age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration rates.
01
Base Population
2024 census-based age-sex structure from Statistics Committee & UN DESA estimates.
02
Fertility Scenarios
High (TFR→3.3), Medium (TFR→2.5), Low (TFR→2.0) scenario assumptions to 2050.
03
Mortality Projections
Lee-Carter model for life expectancy improvements; IMR and age-specific death rates.
04
Migration Assumptions
Constant net outflow of -80K/yr (medium) with upper/lower bounds of ±40K.
Method reference: Preston, Heuveline & Guillot (2001) · UN DESA Methodology Notes
Population Projections · 2025 – 2050 (Three Scenarios)
2050 Outcomes:
High → 60.0M
TFR stays elevated; continued high natural increase
Medium → 50.2M
UN central estimate; gradual fertility decline
Low → 42.8M
Rapid transition toward replacement-level fertility
Based on: UN DESA WPP 2024 Medium Variant · Author's scenario modelling
Projected Age Structure Shift · 2024 vs 2050
Structural Changes by 2050
Old-Age Dependency Ratio
11% → 22%
▲
Youth Dependency Ratio
52% → 38%
▼
Working-Age Share (15–64)
64% → 68%
▲
65+ Population Share
4.5% → 9.8%
▲▲
Median Age (years)
29.2 → 34.5
▲
Source: UN DESA WPP 2024 · Author projections (medium scenario)
Labour Force & Demographic Dividend
Working-Age Population 15–64 (millions)
01
Window of Opportunity
2020–2045 is Uzbekistan's demographic dividend window — low dependency ratios boost growth potential.
02
Jobs Challenge
700,000–800,000 new labour market entrants per year require sustained economic expansion at 6%+ GDP.
03
Human Capital Key
Realising the dividend requires investment in education, health, and gender equity in the workforce.
Labour force participation rate (2024): 62.4% · Female LFPR: 41.5% · Youth unemployment: 14.8%
Sources: ILO · World Bank · Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee 2024
Regional Demographic Disparities
Region
Population
TFR
Urban %
Growth Rate
Tashkent City
2.9M
1.8
100%
High
Andijan
3.4M
3.4
38%
High
Ferghana
3.8M
3.3
40%
High
Namangan
2.9M
3.4
40%
High
Samarkand
3.9M
3.1
31%
High
Kashkadarya
3.6M
3.5
22%
Very High
Surkhandarya
2.7M
3.7
26%
Very High
Karakalpakstan
2.0M
2.9
51%
Moderate
Khorezm
1.9M
3.0
30%
High
The Fergana Valley (Andijan, Namangan, Ferghana) — most densely populated region with TFR 3.3–3.4. Southern regions show highest population pressure.
Source: Uzbekistan State Statistics Committee 2024 · UNFPA Uzbekistan Country Brief
Policy Implications of Demographic Forecasts
Education — Immediate (2025–2030)
Expand school capacity by 30% to accommodate a school-age population peaking at ~8M. Invest in vocational training for 800K annual labour market entrants.
Healthcare — Medium-term (2025–2040)
Shift healthcare investment from maternal-child health toward NCDs and elderly care as the 60+ population doubles from 2.2M to 4.5M by 2050.
Housing & Cities — Medium-term (2030–2045)
Urban population to reach 22–24M by 2040, requiring 1.5–2M new housing units. Tashkent and secondary cities need transit-oriented development plans.
Pensions & Social — Long-term (2035–2050)
Old-age dependency ratio will double to ~22% by 2050. Pension system reforms needed now; contributory retirement savings schemes essential.
Labour Market — Immediate & ongoing
Create 700–800K jobs annually through FDI attraction, SME development, and diaspora investment. Female LFPR must rise from 41% toward 60%.
Migration Policy — Ongoing
Leverage remittances ($9.7B) through financial sector deepening. Build return-migration incentives for skilled diaspora to close human capital gaps.
References: Uzbekistan Vision 2030 · UNDP Human Development Report · World Bank Uzbekistan Country Partnership Framework 2022–26
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Uzbekistan's Demographic Future
1
A young, growing nation —
Population will reach 50M+ by 2050 (medium scenario), making Uzbekistan Central Asia's largest country by far.
2
A demographic dividend is open —
The window of 2020–2045 offers unparalleled growth potential — but only if human capital is developed at scale.
3
Urbanisation is accelerating —
Urban share will exceed 60% by 2040; city infrastructure investment must be front-loaded to avoid urban stress.
4
Ageing will arrive after 2035 —
The 65+ population will double — social protection and pension systems must be reformed proactively.
Demographic Forecasting for Uzbekistan · 2025–2050