An Introduction to�Wargaming ��

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

Chief, Wargaming

Requirements Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

7 March 2008

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Case Number AFRL 06-0042

Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

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Disclaimer

The views expressed in this briefing are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of the Air Force Research Laboratory or the United States Air Force.

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My Bio

• Civilian positions
• Professor of Wargaming, ACSC
• Research Associate, SAAS
• USAFR Assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Co-author Gulf War Fact Book

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Why Should I Care?

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Why Should I Care?

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Overview

• History
• Definitions
• Applications
• Lessons from the History of Wargaming

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A One Slide History of Wargaming

…and they have often been�credited with making the�difference between victory�and defeat

Wargames are literally as old as civilization…

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What is a Wargame?

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What is a Wargame?

Reality

Simulation

Model

Sim Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multi Sided

Armed Conflict

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What is a Wargame?

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What is a Wargame?

Types of Wargames

• Each has advantages and disadvantages
• Some wargames include all three

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Rule Based

or

BOGSAT

Umpires

Methods of Adjudication

What is a Wargame?

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Rule Based

or

BOGSAT

Umpires

Computerized

M&S

Methods of Adjudication

What is a Wargame?

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Types of Constructive Wargames

Miniatures/Terrain Table

Map/Chart/Paper

Computerized

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Applications

Civil Use of Wargaming

• Recreational
• Educational

Defense Uses of Wargaming

• Develop Strategist – Professional Development
• Develop Strategies – Decision Support

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Spectrum of Military Wargaming Today

Develop Strategies

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National

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Theater

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Local

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Decision Support

Develop Strategists

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War College

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Staff College

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Branch Schools

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Professional Dev

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

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Develop Strategist – �Professional Development

Develop Strategists

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War College

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Staff College

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Branch Schools

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Professional Dev

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

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Develop Strategist – �Professional Development

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Strategic

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Operational

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Tactical

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Initial Intermediate Senior

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Develop Strategies – �Decision Support

Develop Strategies

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National

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Theater

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Local

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Decision Support

Strategic

Operational

Tactical

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OSD

Svs

JCS

Comb.Cdr

I

INITIATION

II

CONCEPT

DEVELOPMENT

III

PLAN

DEVELOPMENT

IV

PLAN

REVIEW

V

SUPPORT

PLANS

JOPES

CPG

JSCP

PDMs

BESs

PBDs

PLANNING

BUDGETING

PPBS

President’s

Budget

FYDP

DPG

CPA

CPR

JPD

JSR

Annual

Report

CPR

CPA

JV 20xx

NMS

JSCP

JPD

JSPS

JQRR

IPLs

POMs

PROGRAMMING

DP

CAP

CRS

JROC

JWCA

ACRONYM�SOUP

QDR

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Defense Planning Systems

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Wargaming as Decision Aide�US Government, DoD/CoComs/Services

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Pol/Mil

Title 10

Theater Wargaming

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Strategic Wargaming and �The Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Pol/Mil

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National Strategy Pol/Mil Wargaming

• Joint and Interagency
• BOGSAT adjudicated
• Not only secret – very close hold

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Strategic Wargaming and �The Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Campaign Planning

Theater Strategy

Immediate - Orders

Mid term – JSCP*

Theater Wargaming

JSCP = Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan

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Theater Strategy, Campaign Wargaming

Plan

Development

Plan

Review

Supporting

Plans

OPORD

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Execution

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Execution

Planning

Course of

Action

Selection

Course of

Action

Development

Crisis

Assessment

Situation

Development

Event

OPLAN

CONPLAN

FUNCPLAN

No Plan

Deliberate Planning

Crisis Action Planning

Initiation

Concept

Development

Campaign Plan

OPORDs

Develop

Expand

Modify

IPL

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Adaptive Planning

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Strategic Wargaming and �The Defense Planning Systems

Strategic Planning

National Strategy

Force Planning

Service Strategy

Title 10

Defense Planning

Guidance

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Service Strategy, Title 10 Wargaming�Example Air Force

AF Corporate

Structure

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POM

Lessons Learned to Further Explore

RCCs

POM

2 X POM

4 X POM

Lessons Learned to Further Explore

Service & RCCs

Service Responsibility

Even Year

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AF/XOX

Odd Year

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AF/XPX

Execution

Actionable

Insights

Lessons Learned from Joint, Service, Other Events

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Lessons From �The History of Wargaming

So far we have covered:

• What wargames are
• What are their applications

Now we will cover:

• How to receive the maximum benefit from wargaming

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More Value From Wargaming

Professional Development

• Efficient
• Minimize cost in $$
• Minimize cost in time
• Deployable
• Effective
• Memorable
• Fits curriculum
• Avoids “dis-training”

Decision Support

• Efficient
• Minimize cost in $$
• Minimize cost in time
• Deployable
• Effective
• Fit to adversary/scenario being considered
• Probability envelope of outcomes matches actual envelope

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Assessing Relative Confidence�In Wargame Outcomes

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How Accurate Is Wargaming?

• Each wargame is one pass through a series of chance events - play many wargames and a range of outcomes will occur:

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How Accurate Is Wargaming?

• Each war is one pass through a series of chance events – as such many outcomes are possible while some are more likely then others

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How Accurate Is Wargaming?

• Each war is one pass through a series of chance events – however what actually happened is not necessarily the most likely outcome.

+

X

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How Accurate Is Wargaming?

• At best the outcome distribution of our wargames should match the outcome distribution of reality- then wargames can suggest which outcomes are possible along with relative likelihood.

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How Accurate Is Wargaming?

• However BOGSAT adjudicated wargames are so time consuming they typically produce only one outcome. Even if the most likely outcome is determined the range and likelihood of other outcomes is not captured

X

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How Accurate Is Wargaming?

• Even when there are many runs the outcome distribution of wargames seldom matches the outcome distribution of reality

War

Wargame

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Coping with Uncertainty

• Achieve the best accuracy you can given your goals and resources
• Honestly assess and communicate the “standard deviation” of your wargame

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WG

Sources of Inaccuracy

Blue does not follow plan

• Heisenberg Effect

Red does not follow plan

• Faulty depiction of Red
• Heisenberg Effect

Situation Never Happens

• Unrealistic Scenario
• Heisenberg Effect

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Toward More Effective Scenarios

• Collaborative/Joint Development
• Increased use of “Move Zero”

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“Players” during wargame need to be decision makers during actual event

• Combining Deliberate and Crisis Action Planning (CAP)
• Wargames increasingly Joint and Combined
• Increased interagency NGO participation

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Also, increased professional development wargaming should increase overall quality of Blue play.

Depicting Blue More Accurately

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“This is not (exactly) the enemy we wargamed against.”

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Lt Gen William Wallace

Commanding Gen V Corps

Operation Iraqi Freedom

Depicting Red More Accurately

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Depicting Red More Accurately

Easy

• Study Red History
• Study Red Culture
• Study Red Doctrine

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Depicting Red More Accurately

Less Easy

• Determine Objectives
• Determine Training Heritage
• Determine Planning Methods

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Depicting Red More Accurately

Hard

• Determine how Red is actually training
• Determine how Red sees Blue
• Anticipate when Red will shift strategy/doctrine

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Executions Many Few

Factors Physical Sci Social Sci

Scope Detailed Comprehensive

Level Tactical Strategic

Adversary Symmetric Asymmetric

Doctrinaire / Centralized Decentralized

Technology Old New

Strategy Attrition Effects

Assessing the Likelihood of

Accurate Adjudication

Factor More Accurate Less Accurate

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Achieving More Accurate Adjudication�Historical Challenges

• Command interference in adjudication
• Failure to adjudicate key factor
• Failure to adjudicate full event
• “Bad” data

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Achieving More Accurate Adjudication�Emerging Challenges

• New Threats
• Asymmetric Adversaries
• Global Terrorism
• Anti Access
• New (and rediscovered) Concepts
• Network Central Warfare
• Effects Based Operations
• Campaign Planning
• New (and rediscovered) Tasks
• Rapid Adaptive Planning
• Expeditionary Air Operations
• Winning the Peace

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Wargaming Today

“Seconds to Hours”

Engineering and Engagement Models

“Hours to Days”

Mission Level Models

“Months to Years”

Conflict Level

“Days to Months”

Campaign Level Models

Existing Models

By

Duration Depicted

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Evolve the State of the Art

STRATEGY

ATTRITION

EFFECTS

Generations of Wargaming

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• Adjudicates EBO through adding
• Human Factors
• System Effects
• Decision Cycle
• Shrinks warfighter’s Decision Loop
• Expeditionary hardware
• Fast to learn and execute interfaces
• Inherent reach back capability

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Third Generation Wargaming

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Third Generation Wargaming’s Contribution

3GWG Benefits

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Conclusion

• Wargaming can give us an important edge over our adversaries, or they can give our adversaries an edge over us
• Today tactical attrition wargames are more accurate than strategic effects wargames
• Better Blue, Red and White (adjudication) can increase the accuracy of all wargames – especially at the campaign and strategic
• Better Wargames can help us shorten wars – and win the peace

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To Learn More

• History
• The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990
• www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/caffrey.html
• Current Events
• www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-sims.htm
• www.msrr.dmso.mil/
• www.afmsrr.afams.af.mil/
• www-leav.army.mil/nsc/warsim/index.htm

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Assessing Confidence in Insights

More Confident

• Tactical
• Physics
• Kinetics
• Red Similar Culture
• Short Duration (battle)
• Many “Runs”
• Attrition

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Less Confident

• Strategic
• Human Factors
• Non- Kinetics
• Red Dissimilar Culture
• Long Duration (War)
• Few or 1 “Run”
• Effect

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A One Slide History of Wargaming

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Forecasting the Future

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