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Australian Digital Airspace Characterisation: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

Chief Aerospace Safety Office

Brendan Williams (presenter)

Technical Fellow (Regulatory Innovation)

Emerging Technologies & Regulatory Strategy

Global Safety & Regulatory Affairs

Export Control:

Not subject to the Australian Defence Trade Controls Act of 2012

SafeSkies 2026

'Let the data talk' What safety trends is the data showing?

Dr Aaron McFadyen

Professor

Electrical Engineering and Robotics

Faculty of Engineering

Queensland University of Technology

We would like to acknowledge and thank the entire ADAC team.

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

Abstract

The Australian Digital Airspace Characterisation (ADAC) project, funded under the Federal Government’s Emerging Aviation Technology Partnerships (EATP) program and led by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in collaboration with Boeing and FlyFreely, is advancing Australia’s sovereign capability to understand and manage air risk through a data-driven approach.

The ADAC Project is on track to deliver a national-scale, data-driven framework designed to support both strategic airspace planning and operational risk assessment. ADAC generates a comprehensive and quantitative picture of airspace collision risk -- spatially and temporally. Using advanced statistical and probabilistic modelling methods to augment surveillance data with contextual information including terrain, obstacles, aeronautical data, and land-use layers to create a data-driven and data-informed risk estimate.

This presentation will introduce the ADAC mid-air collision risk maps and their interpretation and discuss how ADAC can inform airspace policy and strategy, assess compliance and efficiency, enable operations, and support the introduction of emerging aviation technologies.

Global Regulatory Engagement

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Introduction

In a data rich world, how can we leverage this to better understand our airspace, to support the safe integration of new entrants and emerging technologies, and to inform changes and modernisation?

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

MAC Rate @ 1 500 ft

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft

MAC Rate @ 12 000 ft

Boeing – QUT Mid-air Collision Risk Model
EATP Grant: Produce air risk maps for all of Australia

QUT, Boeing, and FlyFreely
Surveillance data: One year (2024) of ADS-B data from Aireon

Ground to 20 000 feet

2 Billion+ locations analysed
800 Billion+ collision relevant proximity events processed

Calculates Intrinsic Air Risk

the baseline level of risk that exists within a specific volume of airspace before considering operationally specific behaviours or mitigations

Provides extent (where) and reference (what level)

Examples: Provided for demonstration only and not for operational use.

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, All Traffic

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, Commercial

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, General Aviation

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, Rotary

Examples: Provided for demonstration only and not for operational use.

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Global Regulatory Engagement

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, All Traffic

Examples: Provided for demonstration only and not for operational use.

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, All Traffic

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, All Traffic, Residual [TLOS = 10^-7]

MAC Rate @ 5 000 ft, All Traffic, Residual [TLOS = 10^-7], Thresholds

Mitigation Required

Green < 2 orders

Grey 3 to 5 orders

Red > 5 orders

Examples: Provided for demonstration only and not for operational use.

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

Examples: Provided for demonstration only and not for operational use.

MAC Rate @ 1 500 ft, All Traffic

MAC Rate @ 1 500 ft, All Traffic, Augmented

Augmented Unmitigated Risk

Unmitigated Risk

Have no data?

Inference and General

Inference

Conforming

Non-conforming

Have some data?

Conforming and Non-conforming

Terrain

Augmenting for Terrain, Missing, and Growth Data

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

Examples: Provided for demonstration only and not for operational use.

NMAC Rate at 1 Nautical Mile Offset from VFR Route

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Operational Use

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ADAC: Letting the Data Speak to Inform Air Risk

UK CAA CAP 3139

(Chapter 2)

[https://www.caa.co.uk/data-and-publications/publications/documents/content/cap3139/]

Supporting UK CAA Airspace Modernisation Program and Electronic Conspicuity (EC).

Next phase report in progress.

Airspace Integration Regulatory Sandboxes

IFR in Controlled Airspace (NZ)
VFR in Controlled Airspace (Aust)
UK BVLOS Roadmap

Air Risk knowledge and understanding has helped inform the JARUS SORA 3.0 Air Risk Model working group.

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Conclusion

The Australian Digital Airspace Characterisation (ADAC)

Calculates the Intrinsic Air Risk, not a risk proxy.
Provides extent (where) and reference (what level).
Is a data-driven, data-informed quantitative model.

Can be data mined for insight into airspace characteristics.

Provides a data driven foundation for assessing airspace policy, supports the safe integration of new entrants and emerging technologies, and informs operational level risk assessments and safe cases.

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